At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best tools and data available for those who play daily fantasy sports. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.
With this in mind, our Trend of the Day series features articles that each weekday walk subscribers through an important trend, created with our Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Models.
Trend of the Day: Favored Pitchers with Improved Recent Advanced Stats and High Opponent Run Totals
In tonight’s nine-game main slate, a minimum-priced pitcher on DraftKings almost leads the slate with nine Pro Trends and Jon Gray is priced at a season-high $10,500. What? But what really catches my eye are two pitchers who have positive recent advanced stats and are facing teams implied to score at least 4.1 runs.
Will their solid recent form minimize the impact of their opponents’ high implied Vegas totals?
Step 1: Vegas Filters > Opp Runs > 4.1 to 4.6
Pitchers consistently return a negative Plus/Minus starting at 3.8 opponent implied runs on DraftKings and 4.1 runs on FanDuel. I cut off the slider at 4.6 runs because once the trend is complete, 4.7 and 4.8 implied runs don’t exist.
Step 2a: Adv Stats – Recent > Distance Diff > -25 to -1
Step 2b: Adv Stats – Recent > Exit Velocity Diff > -5 to -1
Step 2c: Adv Stats – Recent > HH Diff > -17 to -1
The 15-day improvement in all three advanced stats substantially changes the outlook for these pitchers. With five pitchers currently facing teams implied to score fewer than four runs, this trend offers contrarian options who have performed well of late.
Step 3: Vegas Filters > Moneyline > -175 to -125
Both of the current matches are pitching for teams expected to win, and this screen really highlights the value of pitcher wins. That value is even greater on Fanduel, where the Plus/Minus improves to +4.27.
Current Matches
When the moneyline opened, Yu Darvish’s opponents, the Athletics, were implied to score 4.2 runs. That number currently stands at 4.0. Were the Opponent’s Runs filter altered to a floor of 4.0, the DraftKings Plus/Minus would increase to +2.51 and the FanDuel Plus/Minus jumps to +5.14.
Darvish has topped out at 91 pitches in his first five starts this season. Following an 11-strikeout performance against the Royals, he’s projected to record a slate-high 8.8 strikeouts tonight, per our K Prediction metric.
Jimmy Nelson is the only current match under the presented filters. He has exceeded salary-based expectations on DraftKings in two of his last nine starts while crafting a -5.35 Plus/Minus. In the same time frame, Nelson recorded a -7.56 Plus/Minus on 11.1 percent Consistency on FanDuel.
Over his last two starts, Nelson has cultivated a 53-percent ground-ball rate while throwing 44 percent of his pitches for strikes — the worst mark of any pitcher in the all-day slate. But do you know which team has hit ground balls at a league-high 49.7 percent this season while sporting MLB’s third-worst 60.2 percent O-Contact percentage (number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone divided by the swings on pitches outside the zone)? That would be Nelson’s opponent, the Diamondbacks — a team currently implied to score 4.2 runs.
Neither of these pitchers is a great fit for cash games, but Nelson is worth a longer look in guaranteed prize pools.
