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MLB Plays of the Day: 5/18/16 Main Slate

In every MLB Plays of the Day post, several FantasyLabs writers use our Trends and Player Models tools to highlight each one player to roster heavily in cash games and/or tournaments for the day’s slates.

Here are today’s plays of the day.

The Play of the Daigle

Who is John Daigle? Ryan Gosling’s confidant.

John Daigle: Mike Napoli, CLE, 1B

Mike Napoli typically isn’t thought of as being on the same tier as Chris Davis, but we can make an exception tonight.

Reds pitcher Brandon Finnegan over the last year has allowed 1.68 home runs per nine innings, 0.11 more than any other pitcher in the slate. Additionally, Napoli is slugging .575 versus left-handed pitching and has a recent 240-foot batted-ball distance (per our advanced stats), both of which are top-five marks among first basemen.

You can opt to pay for Davis if you prefer, but why would you do that when Napoli has a 93 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel? Call me cheap, but I prefer the value Napoli brings tonight, especially since he’s facing a pitcher who is susceptible to giving up home runs to right-handed batters.

Check out the rest of John’s recommendations in today’s Slate Breakdown.

The Remaining Plays of the Day

Here are all the plays recommended by people whose surnames don’t rhyme with “bagel.”

Jay Persson: Dexter Fowler, CHC, OF

As primarily a cash game player, I rate Consistency as one of the most important factors when constructing a lineup each day. I strive to select players with high floors and low Dud rates. Due to the high variance of MLB, finding high-floor/low-Dud players can be more difficult than you might expect it to be. Luckily, with our tools and data, we can identify players who fit our needs in terms of Consistency and floor.

Fowler has the lowest Dud percentage of any starting outfielder in the past month. This alone makes him an intriguing play. Additionally, the Cubs have a slate-high implied Vegas total of five runs. Through our Trends tool, we can see that leadoff hitters on teams projected to score at least five runs have historically produced a Plus/Minus of +2.51.

Also, note that opposing catcher Jonathan Lucroy has allowed the most stolen bases and opposing pitcher Jimmy Nelson has allowed the second-most stolen bases in the league this season. Leading the Cubs in stolen bases, Fowler not only provides the Consistency we look for in cash games but also offers the Upside we need in tournaments.

For more of Jay’s musings, check out the MLB Daily Fantasy Flex pod and today’s Trend of the Day.

Mitchell Block: David Price, BOS, SP

If you’ve been reading my KBXE series, you probably already know that I’m a David Price fan. He seems very likely to experience positive regression in the near future. The veteran has undeniably had up-and-down fantasy production this season: Over his last six starts he has surpassed 30 DraftKings points three times and failed to surpass eight DK points the other three times. Nevertheless, many of Price’s underlying statistics indicate that he hasn’t been pitching poorly.

While not quite Kershaw-ian, Price’s xFIP of 2.72 is good enough for fourth in the majors at the moment, despite a seemingly misleading 6.00 earned run average. Even though his ERA and a BABIP of .380 over his previous six games may suggest otherwise, Price’s declining Distance and Hard-Hit Differentials support the idea that hitters haven’t necessarily been making great contact against him. They’ve simply been finding holes.

With his high strikeout potential, Price has the ability to produce another 30-point DK performance today against the Royals, at least based upon the performance of comparable pitchers against Kansas City this season. High strikeout pitchers (those with at least nine strikeouts per inning) have a Plus/Minus of +4.68 this season with 71.4 percent Consistency. With the Royals having an implied total of only 3.2 runs, Price should have no issues contending for the top-pitching performance of the slate.

Kelly McCann: Drew Pomeranz, SD, SP

I’ve had great success recently with our exclusive K prediction metric.

Strikeouts are one of the few sources of points you can reasonably rely on certain pitchers racking up. Tonight, Pomeranz has the third-highest K prediction at 7.2. Honestly, that might be a little low considering that he also has a slate-high 11.99 strikeouts per nine innings. Additionally, Bob Davidson is the home-plate umpire tonight, and he has historically provided pitchers a Plus/Minus of +1.53 with 61.1 percent Consistency. And when Davidson is behind the plate for pitchers with a K/9 greater than 10, that Plus/Minus increases to +4.89.

But even without Davidson as the umpire, Pomeranz would likely still provide value, as pitchers with a K/9 higher than 10 and a K prediction of at least seven have historically produced a Plus/Minus of +3.68 with 60.6 percent Consistency. Pomeranz has seven Pro Trends, tied for third-best at his position tonight. Basically, Pomeranz is in a great spot to provide some serious strikeout Upside.

You know I’m all about the Ks, ‘bout the Ks, no treble.

[Editor’s Note: I’m sorry.]

———

The Plays of the Day series is our answer to the question, “Who do you guys like today?” We publish a Plays of the Day article every weekday for MLB and a Plays of the Week every Wednesday for PGA.

In every MLB Plays of the Day post, several FantasyLabs writers use our Trends and Player Models tools to highlight each one player to roster heavily in cash games and/or tournaments for the day’s slates.

Here are today’s plays of the day.

The Play of the Daigle

Who is John Daigle? Ryan Gosling’s confidant.

John Daigle: Mike Napoli, CLE, 1B

Mike Napoli typically isn’t thought of as being on the same tier as Chris Davis, but we can make an exception tonight.

Reds pitcher Brandon Finnegan over the last year has allowed 1.68 home runs per nine innings, 0.11 more than any other pitcher in the slate. Additionally, Napoli is slugging .575 versus left-handed pitching and has a recent 240-foot batted-ball distance (per our advanced stats), both of which are top-five marks among first basemen.

You can opt to pay for Davis if you prefer, but why would you do that when Napoli has a 93 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel? Call me cheap, but I prefer the value Napoli brings tonight, especially since he’s facing a pitcher who is susceptible to giving up home runs to right-handed batters.

Check out the rest of John’s recommendations in today’s Slate Breakdown.

The Remaining Plays of the Day

Here are all the plays recommended by people whose surnames don’t rhyme with “bagel.”

Jay Persson: Dexter Fowler, CHC, OF

As primarily a cash game player, I rate Consistency as one of the most important factors when constructing a lineup each day. I strive to select players with high floors and low Dud rates. Due to the high variance of MLB, finding high-floor/low-Dud players can be more difficult than you might expect it to be. Luckily, with our tools and data, we can identify players who fit our needs in terms of Consistency and floor.

Fowler has the lowest Dud percentage of any starting outfielder in the past month. This alone makes him an intriguing play. Additionally, the Cubs have a slate-high implied Vegas total of five runs. Through our Trends tool, we can see that leadoff hitters on teams projected to score at least five runs have historically produced a Plus/Minus of +2.51.

Also, note that opposing catcher Jonathan Lucroy has allowed the most stolen bases and opposing pitcher Jimmy Nelson has allowed the second-most stolen bases in the league this season. Leading the Cubs in stolen bases, Fowler not only provides the Consistency we look for in cash games but also offers the Upside we need in tournaments.

For more of Jay’s musings, check out the MLB Daily Fantasy Flex pod and today’s Trend of the Day.

Mitchell Block: David Price, BOS, SP

If you’ve been reading my KBXE series, you probably already know that I’m a David Price fan. He seems very likely to experience positive regression in the near future. The veteran has undeniably had up-and-down fantasy production this season: Over his last six starts he has surpassed 30 DraftKings points three times and failed to surpass eight DK points the other three times. Nevertheless, many of Price’s underlying statistics indicate that he hasn’t been pitching poorly.

While not quite Kershaw-ian, Price’s xFIP of 2.72 is good enough for fourth in the majors at the moment, despite a seemingly misleading 6.00 earned run average. Even though his ERA and a BABIP of .380 over his previous six games may suggest otherwise, Price’s declining Distance and Hard-Hit Differentials support the idea that hitters haven’t necessarily been making great contact against him. They’ve simply been finding holes.

With his high strikeout potential, Price has the ability to produce another 30-point DK performance today against the Royals, at least based upon the performance of comparable pitchers against Kansas City this season. High strikeout pitchers (those with at least nine strikeouts per inning) have a Plus/Minus of +4.68 this season with 71.4 percent Consistency. With the Royals having an implied total of only 3.2 runs, Price should have no issues contending for the top-pitching performance of the slate.

Kelly McCann: Drew Pomeranz, SD, SP

I’ve had great success recently with our exclusive K prediction metric.

Strikeouts are one of the few sources of points you can reasonably rely on certain pitchers racking up. Tonight, Pomeranz has the third-highest K prediction at 7.2. Honestly, that might be a little low considering that he also has a slate-high 11.99 strikeouts per nine innings. Additionally, Bob Davidson is the home-plate umpire tonight, and he has historically provided pitchers a Plus/Minus of +1.53 with 61.1 percent Consistency. And when Davidson is behind the plate for pitchers with a K/9 greater than 10, that Plus/Minus increases to +4.89.

But even without Davidson as the umpire, Pomeranz would likely still provide value, as pitchers with a K/9 higher than 10 and a K prediction of at least seven have historically produced a Plus/Minus of +3.68 with 60.6 percent Consistency. Pomeranz has seven Pro Trends, tied for third-best at his position tonight. Basically, Pomeranz is in a great spot to provide some serious strikeout Upside.

You know I’m all about the Ks, ‘bout the Ks, no treble.

[Editor’s Note: I’m sorry.]

———

The Plays of the Day series is our answer to the question, “Who do you guys like today?” We publish a Plays of the Day article every weekday for MLB and a Plays of the Week every Wednesday for PGA.

About the Author

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. The only edge he has in anything is his knowledge of '90s music.