The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 15-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Two pitchers stand out above the rest today on DraftKings:
- Madison Bumgarner (L) $11,400, SF vs. OAK – E. Jackson
- Noah Syndergaard (R) $11,000, NYM vs. WAS – T. Roark
Madison Bumgarner has been up and down since returning from his injury, resulting in a high ERA (for him) of 3.09 through his first seven starts of 2018. More concerning than his ERA has been his inability to miss bats, with his K/9 of 7.42 representing a new career low. Overall, he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in just two of his seven starts on DraftKings, but that hasn’t stopped the site from raising his salary by $1,300 since the start of the season.
That said, he appears to be in a nice spot today against the Oakland Athletics. Their projected lineup has really struggled with lefties, posting a .309 wOBA and 28.5% strikeout rate over the past 12 months. Bumgarner’s opponent implied team total of 3.7 runs is the third-lowest mark on the slate, while his moneyline odds of -144 rank sixth.
Bumgarner should also benefit from pitching at home in San Francisco, where he has a slate-high Park Factor of 93. He’s historically dominated at AT&T Park, averaging a Plus/Minus of +3.84 (per the Trends tool).
Noah Syndergaard is a wild card. He’s making his first start after an extended stay on the disabled list due to an injury to his index finger. He’s undoubtedly the most talented pitcher today, owning a 10.45 K/9 over the past 12 months, but he could be limited in his return.
He also has a difficult matchup vs. the Washington Nationals, whose projected lineup owns a .322 wOBA against right-handers over the past 12 months. Syndergaard’s Vegas data (3.9-run opponent implied total, -120 moneyline odds) is worse than usual for a pitcher of his caliber. He could be worth some exposure in guaranteed prize pools — especially given his projected ownership of just 9-12% on DraftKings — but he doesn’t seem particularly safe today.
Values
Dallas Keuchel will likely be the most popular pitcher today. He leads all pitchers with nine Pro Trends on DraftKings and is a massive -253 favorite vs. the Detroit Tigers. Historically, comparable favorites have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.42 and Consistency Rating of 65.6%. At just $8,400 on DraftKings, that’s appealing.
The Statcast data from his past two starts is also filthy. He’s allowed an average distance of just 171 feet, exit velocity of 87 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 20%, all three of which rank first among today’s pitchers. Keuchel specializes in inducing soft contact, but those numbers are elite even by his unusually high standards.
Of course, the big drawback is his lack of strikeout upside. He’s averaged a pedestrian K/9 of just 7.09 over the past 12 months, and his K Prediction of 4.5 is tied for the fourth-lowest mark on today’s slate.
Strikeouts haven’t been an issue for Felix Pena, who has posted a K/9 of 10.55 through his first 65.2 innings at the MLB level. He leads all pitchers on today’s slate with a K Prediction of 7.3. He’s been particularly impressive over his past two starts, tallying 13 strikeouts while allowing just two runs over 10.2 innings pitched. His Statcast data suggests those numbers haven’t been a fluke, as he’s posted a massive 15-day/12-month distance differential of -33 feet. Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions and distance differentials have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.06 on DraftKings.
Unfortunately, he has some concerning Vegas data vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers. He’s a +143 underdog, and his opponent implied total of 4.5 runs is one of the highest marks on the slate. He seems like more of a GPP than cash option.
Carlos Martinez doesn’t stand out in any one particular area today, but he has solid marks across the board with a 3.8-run opponent implied total, -152 moneyline odds, and 5.4 K Prediction. He also enters today’s game vs. the Cincinnati Reds in good form, limiting his past two opponents to an average distance of 192 feet, exit velocity of 90 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 35%. He could make sense on a slate with no truly elite option.
Fastballs
Wei-Yin Chen: He’s dirt cheap at just $4,800 on DraftKings and has decent upside vs. the Philadelphia Phillies. Their projected lineup has struck out in 27.8% of at-bats vs. lefties over the past 12 months, giving Chen a higher K Prediction than usual at 5.5. He’s also limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 191 feet, which represents a decrease of -21 feet when compared to his 12-month average.
Anibal Sanchez: He’s been very effective recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +8.08 on FanDuel over his past 10 starts, and he ranks second today with a K Prediction of 7.0. He is also a -126 favorite and owns a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -9 feet, which makes him really intriguing given his projected ownership of just 2-4% on FanDuel.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On DraftKings, the top five-man stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Kansas City Royals.
- 1. Whit Merrifield (R)
- 2. Jorge Bonifacio (R)
- 4. Salvador Perez (R)
- 5. Lucas Duda (L)
- 8. Alcides Escobar (R)
Total Salary: $17,700
The Royals are not expected to be a popular team — only Salvador Perez has an ownership projection above 5% — and on the surface that makes sense. Their implied team total of 4.6 runs is more than two full runs lower than the Rockies’ slate-high mark of 6.7, and there’s really no need to spend down on hitters given the lack of high-priced pitching options.
Still, they have sneaky appeal against White Sox right-hander James Shields, who has allowed some awful contact over his past two starts. Conversely, the stacked batters for the Royals are all in excellent form, with each owning a positive distance differential over the past 15 days.
If you’re looking for a more conventional stack, the Rockies own the top four-man stack on FanDuel when building by projected points:
- 1. D.J. LeMahieu (R)
- 2. Charlie Blackmon (L)
- 3. Nolan Arenado (R)
- 5. Trevor Story (R)
Total Salary: $17,100
The Rockies seem like the easy top choice today if salary is no object. They own four of the five highest projections in our Models, and batters in the top five lineup spots have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.62 on FanDuel with a comparable implied team total. They’re taking on Mariners right-hander Christian Bergman, who has managed a paltry K/9 of just 5.07 over the past 12 months, and a strikeout rate that low is extremely troublesome at Coors Field. Allowing the Rockies to put a lot of balls in play is a recipe for disaster.
All of the stacked batters with the exception of Trevor Story are also in good recent form: D.J. LeMahieu, Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado all own a distance differential of at least +13 feet over the past 13 games. You could also consider swapping in Carlos Gonzalez for Story, as Gonzalez hit two home runs on Wednesday and is arguably the hottest hitter on the team.
Other Batters
Shin-Soo Choo is our highest-rated batter on FanDuel, where he owns a Bargain Rating of 99%. He continues to destroy the baseball this season, owning an average distance of 271 feet, exit velocity of 99 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 62% over his past eight games. He has an elite matchup vs. Orioles right-hander Alex Cobb, who has pitched to a dreadful 6.67 ERA in 2018.
Tommy Pham and the Cardinals are set to face off with Reds righty Matt Harvey, who at this point is merely a shell of his former self. He’s averaged a K/9 of just 6.67 this season, which is a far cry from his career-best mark of 10.62 in 2012. Pham has a hard-hit rate of 64% over his past 10 games, which could lead to big things against a mediocre pitcher like Harvey.
The Yankees will likely be undervalued given their implied team total of just 4.6 runs, but they always have appeal given their massive power potential. They’re second in the league with an average of 5.23 runs per game and their ISO against right-handers is the top mark in the league by a significant margin. Aaron Judge has the second-highest ISO split on the slate against Indians right-hander Shane Bieber and has posted an average distance of 252 feet over his past 14 games, which makes him an excellent GPP target given his projected ownership of just 5-8%.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Coors Field
Photo credit: Ron Chenoy-USA Today Sports
