Consider today a tale of two slates. Noah Syndergaard and Jake Arrieta headline the first slate of the day, and Cole Hamels and Trevor Bauer headline the second.
Let’s take them one at a time.
Early: Pitchers
This particular slate boils down to Syndergaard or Arrieta for a variety of reasons. Both are the only pitchers priced over $10,000 at FanDuel and $12,800 on DraftKings. Both also have double-digit Pro Trends. It’s entirely plausible to roster both at DraftKings, but there are also some other pitchers you may want to consider.
Adam Conley, MIA
Atlanta’s projected lineup is averaging only .211 strikeouts per at-bat (SO/AB), so Conley doesn’t seem to have much strikeout potential. It helps, though, that Atlanta’s .267 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) is .017 lower than that of any other offense. Furthermore, the Braves’ implied Vegas total has dropped 0.3 runs since opening. Per our advanced stats, over the last 15 days Conley has allowed a batted-ball distance 27 feet farther than his yearly average, but he has still produced a +2.64 Plus/Minus at DraftKings over his last four starts. He leads all pitchers in the slate with his 92 Park Factor.
Plus/Minus, Pro Trends, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
CC Sabathia, NYY
Note Sabathia’s +7.53 Plus/Minus at DraftKings in his last seven starts. He’s admittedly averaging only 7.38 strikeouts per nine innings (SO/9), but the Rockies’ .274 SO/AB should only help matters (for Sabathia, anyway). Both his 189-foot batted-ball distance and exit velocity of 88 miles per hour over the last 15 days are top-two in the slate.
Matt Shoemaker, LAA
For seven consecutive starts, Shoemaker has exceeded salary-based expectations. He has also averaged 26.7 DraftKings points per start in the past month — 3.3 more than Syndergaard and 3.6 more than Arrieta. Shoemaker’s 246-foot batted-ball distance allowed in the last 15 days is certainly worrisome, but he has notably averaged 9.16 strikeouts over his last six games. He offers enough Upside to match Thor and Arrieta.
Early: Batters
It’s not optimal to fade Syndergaard or Arrieta simply because one wants to do so. As was the case in yesterday’s Main slate, there are enough viable cheap hitters and stacks to enable you to roster the two priciest pitchers in the slate.
Brian McCann, NYY
For whatever reason, McCann has suffered a Salary Change of -$700 at DraftKings since last night. He has a -0.031 Isolated Power (ISO) Differential, but both his 246-foot recent batted-ball distance and 96-MPH recent exit velocity suggest that his recent form is good enough to counterbalance his negative splits.
Chris Carter, MIL
Carter has failed to meet salary-based expectations in six of his last seven games, and the resulting salary drop has contributed to his present 94 percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings. In Carter’s favor is his mammoth 264-foot recent batted-ball distance. He’s crushing the ball. The fantasy results will come.
Max Muncy, OAK
Not only does Muncy cost the minimum, but he also has a 96-MPH exit velocity in his last seven starts. His .275 wOBA Differential is also .174 higher than that of any other first basemen in the Early slate.
Neil Walker, NYM
Walker has a 96 percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings and is slugging .500 versus left-handed pitching. He has a -2.97 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games, but his 237-foot batted-ball distance in that span seems more relevant.
Wilmer Flores, NYM
Flores costs the minimum at FanDuel and has a .082 and .117 wOBA and ISO Differential versus left-handed pitching. He’s also slugging .525 against said handedness. Again: He costs the minimum.
Carlos Correa, HOU
Correa has a a 96 percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings and has exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his last six outings. He also leads the Early slate in Pro Trends among shortstops.
Main: Pitchers
No Arrieta or Syndergaard to lean on here. Just an assortment of pitchers who are cheap in comparison. Still, a select few stand out.
Trevor Bauer, CLE
Bauer is worth paying up for at DraftKings, and at FanDuel he’s a please to roster, given his 98 percent Bargain Rating. Note the Rays’ .301 SO/AB, bottom-two among offenses. Additionally, Bauer has suffocated opponents recently, over the last 15 days allowing a batted-ball distance 18 feet shorter and a hard-hit rate 13 percentage points lower than his yearly averages.
Cole Hamels, TEX
In his last two starts, Hamels has a +10.42 Plus/Minus at DraftKings, and he has received the most moneyline bets this evening. It also helps that Cincinnati is averaging .267 SO/AB, all the while having a .289 wOBA versus left-handed pitching.
Francisco Liriano, PIT
It’s impossible to predict how Liriano will do in any given matchup, but he at least has a low recent exit velocity allowed and a 99 percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings. Also, our K Predictor has him with 6.3 strikeouts tonight, fourth-highest in the main slate.
Chris Archer, TB
This matchup for both sides is strong enough simply to stack opposing pitchers and avoid the hitters for each team entirely. Archer’s 10.74 SO/9 are second-highest tonight, second only to Julio Urias’ average of 12.25. Archer has admittedly allowed a 228-foot batted-ball distance recently, but he has recorded 20.8 DraftKings points over the last month.
Main: Batters
As for hitters, three teams tonight are implied to score more than five runs. These teams should be fine to stack in cash games, but if you want to fade them altogether in tournaments then there are still other intriguing stacks you can roster.
PHI vs. Kyle Gibson
Kyle Gibson has recorded a -6.32 Plus/Minus at Draftings in his last six starts, averaging 6.7 DraftKings points in his last two alone. The Phillies lineup truly varies from night to night, but Odubel Herrera, who has a .086 ISO Differential, and Cody Asche, who’s slugging .463, are both strong options if starting.
BAL vs. Erik Johnson
Baltimore is implied to score the most runs tonight (which will surely mean high ownership for all the Orioles hitters) and that makes sense given that Johnson’s averaged 1.0 DraftKings point per outing since debuting with San Diego. Furthermore, his 2.90 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) allowed in the past year are 1.16 more than any other pitcher has allowed in the main slate. There’s no need to sway from the usual culprits here. Chris Davis is slugging .683 versus right-handed pitching; Pedro Alvarez (a tremendous pivot from Davis in tournaments) has averaged a 99-MPH exit velocity in the last 15 days; Jonathan Schoop has recorded a +9.33 Plus/Minus since Manny Machado began serving his suspension; Adam Jones has a .102 ISO Differential; and Hyun-Soo Kim has now exceeded salary-based expectations in three consecutive games.
CWS vs. Eduardo Rodriguez
Rodriguez has allowed a batted-ball distance 14 feet farther than his yearly average in the last 15 days. Although the White Sox’s first three hitters all have negative ISO Differentials versus left-handed pitching, both Todd Frazier and Brett Lawrie are slugging over .480 against said handedness.
WSH vs. Julio Urias
Urias has recorded a +7.11 Plus/Minus at DraftKings in his last three starts. Even so, it’s a horrific spot for him since the Nationals have a .208 ISO against left-handers this season. Just beginning with the top of their lineup, note that Michael Taylor and Jayson Werth both have at least a .086 wOBA Differential versus said handedness. Ryan Zimmerman also has a .670 slugging percentage this evening.
Good luck!
