Only three of today’s 15 games are prior to 7:05 PM ET, but for simplification we’ll focus on the all-day slate and adjust accordingly.
Pitchers
Today’s slate features aces galore, all of whom will be available in the main slate. The seven most expensive pitchers on FanDuel and DraftKings are the same. All seven starters possess a Bargain Rating of at least 62 percent on FanDuel, and none are facing teams with Vegas implied totals of more than four runs. Jose Fernandez and Max Scherzer cost more than $13,000 on DraftKings and just about $12,000 on FanDuel.
Marlins-Mets
The Marlins and Mets game features Will Little behind the plate, an umpire who has historically gifted to pitchers a +1.4 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and +1.8 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. This matchup offers you two distinct pitching choices:
— Fernandez at home
— Jacob deGrom on the road at night
Fernandez is 25-1 at home and deGrom claims a 5-9 record with a 4.32 earned run average in 22 road starts at night. Per our Trends machine, for Fernandez this translates into a devastating +15.05 Plus/Minus on FanDuel with 85 percent Consistency. For deGrom. For deGrom, a -4.91 Plus/Minus with 36.4 percent Consistency.
Utilizing Fernandez and deGrom on DraftKings in theory could provide unique tournament lineups, but the move is rather expensive and deGrom in particular might not be worth the cost. The Marlins’ projected lineup has a 0.206 SO/9 that ranks second-worst for pitchers on the slate. deGrom recorded seven strikeouts against this same projected lineup less than three weeks ago at Citi Field, but his catcher from that game (Rene Rivera) isn’t expected to start.
Nonetheless, pitchers predicted to strike out between seven and eight batters and facing teams implied to score between three and four runs have exceeded salary-based expectations 61.3 percent on the time on DraftKings. deGrom’s 7.2 K Prediction and the Marlins 3.6 implied runs keep him in play on DraftKings, but on FanDuel you should probably look elsewhere.
The Scherze
Max Scherzer’s 8.9 predicted strikeouts are the second-highest mark on the slate, and the Nationals’ -315 moneyline is by far the best of the day. The Padres are currently implied to score a slate-low 2.9 runs and to be outscored by more than two runs by the Nationals. Scherzer recorded 10 strikeouts against the Padres in six innings last month. Rostering Scherzer instead of Fernandez may marginally increase your risk, but the difference could be minuscule and might be worth the few hundred dollars you can save on both sites.
On Sale, Low Price
Left-handers Chris Sale and David Price are both pitching at home for teams favored by at least a run and are options for cash games and tournaments, but you should be sure to monitor our Lineups page throughout the day, given the present possibility of rain in Boston. Of the two, Price has the superior moneyline (-245), but Sale has the higher K Prediction (6.8).
At Your Own Risk?
John Lackey and Cole Hamels round out the expensive pitchers. Hamels’ 5.0 predicted strikeouts, -115 moneyline, and $9,400 salary on DraftKings situate him at the bottom on all counts within the group of seven. Even though the Rangers have received a majority of the moneyline bets, the Royals implied run total has increased by 0.3 — reverse line movement suggesting that the smart money is against Hamels.
Lackey and his opponent’s starting pitcher, Zach Davies, have performed very differently over their last seven starts. Lackey met value one time on DraftKings and twice on FanDuel over that time frame. Davies, on the other hand, had 85.7 percent Consistency on both sites in his last seven starts. Additionally, Lackey has struggled t0 meet expectations on the road this season.
Indians right-handed pitcher Josh Tomlin has a slate-low 1.873 HR/9 . . . but he his 1.034 WHIP over the last 12 months registers as the day’s third-best mark. On the road this year, Tomlin boasts a 6-0 record with a +3.76 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +6.81 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. He’s not much of a bargain on either site — and his proclivity to give up home runs could definitely get you into trouble — but if you’re looking to diversify your lineups, then Tomlin is a decent contrarian option. Although the opposing Orioles are favored, their projected lineup has the slate’s second-worst SO/AB (.288).
Stacks
We’re going to mix it up today by using Isolated Power (ISO) to sort through the Stacking tool, since focusing on ISO can provide an alternative, non-chalky stack for consideration.
Let’s look first at FanDuel:
The top four stacks based on ISO involve some variation of the Twins’ projected lineup currently implied to score 3.6 runs. The only constant is Kenny Vargas, who has started 11 games this season, all in July. Vargas’ small sample over the past 12 months is why you can find him at the top of all five columns in the Split Stat section of the Player Models.
The Twins are certainly an intriguing stacking option, especially because they’re playing the Red Sox, who currently rank second in the slate with 5.9 implied runs. With all the focus on the Red Sox in this matchup, the contrarian thing to do is focus on Twins hitters who dominate left-handed pitchers, especially since recency bias would have you fade those players based on the Twins’ two-run outing last night against left-handed pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez.
The Twins are currently implied to score only 3.6 runs — the third-lowest mark on the all-day slate — and (again) that game could see some rain, but they hit lefties well and are likely to be sparsely rostered.
On DraftKings, a four-man stack based on rating in the CSURAM88 Model spits out the anticipated results: Rockies and Red Sox amalgamations account for eight of the top nine stacks.
Hidden in the middle of this power couple lies a straight 1-2-3-4 Diamondback stack:
This stack is the fourth-most expensive on the menu, so kiss goodbye to Fernandez and Scherzer if you choose this route, but the Diamondbacks are currently implied to score 5.0 runs, and they will face right-handed pitcher Keyvius Sampson, who will make his first start of the season after seven relief appearances for the Reds. His slate-worst 1.921 WHIP is nearly matched by his opponent, Diamondbacks pitcher Robbie Ray, which facilitates a chance for two four-man stacks in the same game. Joey Votto and Billy Hamilton both cost $3,400 on DraftKings, and their top six hitters carry a Bargain Rating of at least 70 percent. It’s time to hit them with the indubitably, Kawhi.
Hitters
Mookie Betts left Friday’s game early due to right knee soreness, and he’s listed as questionable. Excluding him from player models limited the Red Sox to two of the top-11 rated four-man DraftKings stacks. In the only game Betts missed this season, Jackie Bradley, Jr., batted leadoff and Chris Young manned right field. Bradley’s $5,100 salary on DraftKings doesn’t allow for much room to take advantage should he leadoff, but they Red Sox are implied to score 5.9 runs. Bradley’s $3,600 salary on FanDuel will come in handy should Betts get the day off.
Buster Posey left Friday’s tilt because of a right foot contusion. The reverberations hit two-fold if he can’t play Saturday: Brandon Crawford will likely shift to the cleanup spot and Trevor Brown will catch. Crawford, at $3,000 on FanDuel, is one of the top-14 rated shortstops, sporting a Bargain Rating of at least 93 percent. With not much separation among his position, Crawford profiles as a solid advanced stats guy, as one of three shortstops of the original 14 to furnish positive differentials over the past 15 days.
Maikel Franco also exited Friday’s game due to injury. He’s listed as doubtful for the 4 PM start time. In his absence this season, Andres Blanco typically takes over for Franco in the field and in the batting order, too. Much like Crawford, Blanco can be rostered in the all-day or afternoon slates.
Ryan Braun’s salary of $3,300 on DraftKings marks his lowest in the FantasyLabs database. On one hand, it’s salary relief. On the other hand, Braun has one extra-base hit and zero RBIs in his last 15 starts.
Yoenis Cespedes’ salary of $3,000 on FanDuel registers as his lowest since May 22, 2015. As the Mets are currently implied to score 3.0 runs, it makes sense to remove Cespedes from consideration. Not only is he still working himself back from the strained quad he suffered two weeks ago, but when the Mets have been implied to score no more than 3.5 runs, Cespedes has supplied a -2.46 Plus/Minus on 36.4 percent Consistency.
The top five hitters in the Indians’ projected lineup have a Bargain Rating on FanDuel of at least 86 percent. In fact, seven of the eight hitters carry a Bargain Rating of at least 82 percent, which will come in handy if you decide to stack them, because you can’t roster Carlos Santana and Mike Napoli due to positional overlap. Many of their hitters have seen a spike in recent batted-ball distance, and the projected lineup’s .358 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) — the highest on the slate — may help Tomlin boost his road record to 7-0. Tyler Naquin continues to exceed salary-based expectations, and he’s a paltry $3,400.
The Cardinals are currently implied to score 3.8 runs. Only Stephen Piscotty offers a negative wOBA differential in the projected lineup. Likewise, in the Orioles’ projected lineup, only No. 8 hitter J.J. Hardy barely turns a negative wOBA differential. Conversely, the Rangers’ projected lineup is littered with six hitters exhibiting negative wOBA and ISO splits.
Good luck!
