The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a 10-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Jose Berrios ($7,800) Toronto Blue Jays (-135) vs. Seattle Mariners
Tuesday’s slate is relatively unique in that despite featuring 10 games, there’s a lack of top-end pitching available. The pitchers at the top of the price range all feature poor Vegas data, lack of strikeout upside, or both. That leaves Berrios as the best on-paper choice for pitching points, even though his underlying metrics and matchup aren’t what we’d normally like to target.
Not that Berrios had been bad. His SIERA is 3.86 over the last two seasons, which is solid but not elite. He has a 24% strikeout rate in that time frame, though it’s dipped to only 15% this year. That should regress back to his career/recent rate, though.
Similarly, it’s a mildly difficult matchup with the Mariners. They rank above average in the MLB in most offensive metrics and are implied for 3.8 runs on the slate. That number suggests Berrios should have the upper hand here but not necessarily dominate.
All in all, Berrios is a solid value for his price but not the type of pitcher we’d generally want as our top arm. We’ll have to make do with a lack of better options today. Berrios leads the FantasyLabs projections in median and ceiling while ranking second in The BAT’s. Expect him to be fairly popular today, though, since he stands out as a clear top pick.
MLB DFS Value Pick
JT Brubaker ($7,500) Pittsburgh Pirates (+120) at Chicago Cubs
Brubaker currently ranks fourth in the FantasyLabs projections for Pts/Sal, behind only Berrios and two pitchers who are likely to be used in an opener role today. He has an ugly 5.35 ERA dating back to last season, but his 4.06 SIERA suggests he’s actually been much better than that.
The matchup with the Cubs isn’t particularly threatening, with Chicago having below-average offensive numbers on the season. They also rank eighth in strikeouts, which is a boost to Brubaker. His 24% strikeout rate is among the best on the slate, and he trails only Berrios in K Prediction.
With Chicago implied for only 3.8 runs, Brubaker is a solid value play with upside for much more courtesy of his strikeouts. This game also features an above-average Park Factor and one of the best Weather Ratings on the slate for pitchers. We could do a lot worse than Brubaker today.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Nathan Eovaldi ($9,800) Boston Red Sox (-122) vs. Houston Astros
Eovaldi is arguably the best pitcher on today’s slate. He has the best SIERA, swinging-strike rate, and K rate among the listed starting pitchers. Of course, he’s also facing the Astros, who lead the major leagues in offensive WAR. Still, Eovaldi and the Sox are favored here (despite terrible offensive play from Boston on the season), which is a sign of respect for Eovaldi.
While ownership projections aren’t available at the time of this writing, don’t expect Eovaldi to be too chalky. Paying nearly $10,000 on DraftKings for a pitcher with a 4.2 opponent implied total is never a popular choice. Still, there are a lot of ways Eovaldi could pay off as a GPP option today.
Vegas could be wrong, and the Astros could fall well short of that total. Their runs could come against the Red Sox bullpen, which has the seventh-highest ERA in the majors. Or, the pitching on this slate could be as poor as expected, and a solid-not-great game from Eovaldi ends up as the top score.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the San Francisco Giants:
- LaMonte Wade (1) ($3,100)
- Joc Pederson (2) ($3,900)
- Mike Yastrzemski (3) ($3,300)
- Brandon Belt (4) ($4,500)
- Evan Longoria (5) ($3,800)
The Giants stack was fairly disappointing yesterday at Coors Field. Despite scoring seven runs, the only Giant to bat in the first 5 spots and score more than three points was Yastrzememski, who hit a ninth-inning home run. The Giants’ first two hitters were both pinch-hit for in a tight game, further complicating the matter.
Hopefully, today they can get to Rockies starter Chad Kuhl ($9,000) a bit sooner. Kuhl is another Colorado arm who struggles against left-handed hitting, with a wOBA 40 points higher against lefties than righties. Like yesterday, this stack features for players who bat from the left side.
They’re implied for a slate-leading 6.5 runs and should be popular again today. Pederson and Wade are probably in danger of being pinch hit for again if the Rockies employ left-handed relief pitching, though. It could make some sense to look further down the Giants lineup for your stack.
Make sure to keep an eye on our Lineups Page as well. San Francisco tweaks their lineup more than most teams, so it’s quite possible the actual order looks somewhat different than our early projections.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT, when generated by ceiling belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
As is the norm when they’re on the slate, the Dodgers lead The BAT’s ceiling projections tonight. They have a date with Arizona’s Merrill Kelly ($9,400) in the second game of a doubleheader. Targeting stacks in the second game of doubleheaders has some logic to it, as teams’ bullpens tend to be a bit run down. That could lead to an ineffective starter being left in longer than normal or subpar relievers getting the ball late in the game.
Either of which would be good news to the Dodgers, who put up five runs last night against the Diamondbacks. Chris Taylor — batting eighth — stole the show with a home run and a double. While he’s fairly expensive for a bottom-of-the-order hitter, his production this year has been far better than the average number eight hitter.
Kelly isn’t a particularly attractive matchup, but the Dodgers are still implied for 4.6 runs, one of the higher totals on the slate. We can also afford to get to them, thanks to a lack of expensive pitching options. As always, they’re a solid bet for production, particularly in the back half of a doubleheader.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Joey Gallo OF ($3,200 DraftKings; $2,600 FanDuel) New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles (Spenser Watkins)
Gallo should get the start tonight for the Yankees as they take on right-handed Watkins of the Orioles. New York is implied for 5.3 runs, the highest total of any road team besides San Francisco. Yankees lefties are especially appealing, though, with Camden Yards being much more friendly to them. The Park Factor is 78 for left-handed bats, compared to just 44 for righties.
That makes Gallo and Anthony Rizzo ($5,200 DraftKings; $3,800 FanDuel) my preferred options from New York, with Gallo coming at a discount. Of course, the range of outcomes for Gallo is much wider. He’s hitting .191 on the season — but with five home runs in less than 100 at-bats. His barrel rate and hard-hit percentage are both up from last season (and above his career marks), with a lower HR/FB ratio. Some of that is due to the changes in the baseball, but he’s due for some regression as well.
All of the Yankees are in play tonight, though, with Watkins featuring a career ERA over seven. His SIERA is somewhat better (5.14) but still poor.
Taylor Ward OF ($5,400 DraftKings; $4,600 FanDuel) Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers (Taylor Hearn)
Ward and the Angels are another viable stack, with a 4.6-run implied total on the road in Texas. This game looks to feature ideal hitting weather, with 90-degree temps and winds blowing out at 15mph. While all the Angels are in play, Ward is my favorite of the group.
He’s cheaper than both Shohei Ohtani ($5,900 DraftKings; $4,400 FanDuel) and Mike Trout ($5,500 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel) on DraftKings, despite hitting leadoff. He also has the best splits against left-handed pitching, with Ohtani being a lefty and Trout having reverse platoon splits in his career. Ward is hitting an insane .476 against southpaws this season.
Kike Hernandez OF ($3,400 DraftKings; $2,700 FanDuel) Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros (Jose Urquidy)
Hernandez is still a bit too cheap for a leadoff hitter, despite reaching base safely in four straight games. That’s mostly due to a slow start to the season — he’s currently hitting .216 on the year. He seems to have turned the corner, though and is hitting leadoff for a team with a 4.5 run total. My interest in him is much stronger on FanDuel, where he also holds 2B eligibility. He’s a slightly better value there as well, with a 55% Bargain Rating.
Luis Urias 2B/3B ($5,100 DraftKings, $3,200 FanDuel) Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves (Tucker Davidson)
The pitching matchup for Milwaukee is one of the best on the slate, with Davidson carrying career SIERA and ERA numbers over 5.0. While nobody would accuse Urias’s price tag of being too cheap, it’s still a great spot for the leadoff hitter. His splits are fairly extreme too. Against left-handed pitchers like Davidson, he has a career OPS of .825. The positional flexibility is nice as well, and he’s also SS eligible on FanDuel.
