The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Tuesday features a 14-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Spencer Strider ($12,500) Atlanta Braves (-250) vs. Los Angeles Angels
The last time he started, I wondered aloud if Strider could continue to break the models, all of which suggested it was a tougher spot and he was unlikely to pay off his salary. Well, he did, picking up 10 strikeouts against a tough-to-punch-out Red Sox team and finishing with 26.04 DraftKings points.
Strider has been dangerously close to even bigger numbers his last few starts but has been left in a bit too long and gives up some late runs. It seems somewhat likely that the Braves have learned from that, though, as there’s no reason to push Strider’s innings given their massive NL East lead.
Of course, that’s a double-edged sword, as we generally want our pitchers to get more innings rather than less. Still, with Strider actually hurting his score in the final inning of both of his most recent starts, it could work in his favor for DFS here.
It’s a tough matchup with the Angels, who are a top-five team against righties. However, Vegas is firmly on Strider’s side, with excellent moneyline odds, and the Angels implied for a slate-low (for now) 3.6 runs. Strider is a cut above the competition in every way, with the only question being whether he does enough to justify his price tag.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Lance Lynn ($7,900) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Oakland A’s
The newest — at least for now — Dodger is making his team debut tonight, and he couldn’t ask for a better matchup. He’s taking on the A’s, who rank bottom-five in wRC+ but top-five in strikeouts against right-handed pitching on the season.
Lynn’s numbers are pretty bad at first glance, with a 6.47 ERA on the season. However, if we dig a little deeper we can see what the Dodgers saw when they traded for him. Lynn has a 4.84 xERA and 3.90 SIERA on the season. He also has a very strong 26.9% strikeout rate, which should be even higher based on his swinging strikes.
Much of that discrepancy is thanks to the awful defense he had behind him in Chicago, The White Sox rank 29th in defensive runs saved (DRS) at -45 on the season. The Dodgers aren’t great, but they’re slightly above average, with a DRS of +2.
His projection is a bit in flux thanks to the lack of a betting line on this game, but he’ll likely shake out as one of the top Pts/Sal options on the board tonight — a position he currently holds in THE BAT.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Zac Gallen ($10,500) Arizona Diamondbacks (-112) at San Francisco Giants
Any higher-priced pitcher outside of Strider is likely to come at significantly reduced ownership tonight, thanks to the overwhelming dominance of the Braves ace. That leaves us with Framber Valdez ($11,100) of the Astros and Gallen as potential pivots.
For tournaments, I prefer Gallen. He’s taking on a Giants team that is better overall than the Guardians (who face Valdez). However, they strike out at a much higher clip, 24.9% against righties. Cleveland strikes out just 18% of the time against lefties like Valdez, the second-lowest rate in the league.
Gallen also leads Valdez in both strikeout rate and swinging strike rate, giving him considerably higher upside here when factoring in the matchup. Gallen is a riskier play, but with San Francisco implied for just 3.9 runs, that risk is fairly minimal today.
As an added bonus, Gallen has the better Park Factor and weather rating than Valdez (and Strider), making him an excellent pivot for deeper tournaments.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the San Diego Padres:
The Padres are the obvious choice tonight, with a massive 7.2-run implied total at Coors Field. While they failed to live up to their lofty expectations yesterday in a 3-4 loss, it seems unlikely they’ll be so quiet again tonight.
They’re taking on Peter Lambert ($5,100) the rare Rockies pitcher with an ERA above his park-adjusted ERA predictors. His FIP is 5.30, and logic dictates his average runs allowed should be higher than that during home games.
While San Diego is just an average offense against righties overall, four members of this stack have been above-average against righties this year, with Juan Soto leading the charge at a ridiculous 175 wRC+.
The price point makes it very difficult to fit the Padres and one of the top arms (particularly Strider) but shifting away from Machado (the lone outlier against righties with a below-average wRC+) to a cheaper third basemen and/or cheaper Padre could potentially alleviate some of the salary challenges.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Ryan McMahon 3B ($4,500 DraftKings; $3,800 FanDuel) Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres (Pedro Avila)
Let’s try this one again. McMahon is one of the last competent hitters on the Rockies following their trade of Randal Grichuk and C.J. Cron to the Angels. That makes him a solid play today in a plus matchup against the Padres. Pedro Avila is likely to serve as an opener today, with a bullpen game to follow.
While the Padres have a solid overall bullpen, Colorado is implied for the third-highest run total for a reason. With McMahon as literally the only above-average hitter projected to start for the Rockies today, it’s a safe assumption he’s likely to be involved in any runs they score.
As an added benefit, he’s also eligible at third base, where the Padres’ weakest hitter (Manny Machado) is likely to be the chalky option. We’re saving salary and ownership by a McMahon pivot, with a reasonable chance that he outscores Machado as well.
Ozzie Albies 2B ($5,600 DraftKings; $3,900 FanDuel) Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Angels (Patrick Sandoval)
The Braves are slotted between the two teams at Coors in terms of implied total tonight, with a very strong 5.7-run implied total. They’re also taking on a lefty starter in Sandoval, making finding hitters with solid southpaw platoon splits a priority.
Using our PlateIQ tool, we can easily identify some standout options:
Albies immediately jumps off the screen here, with better ISO and wOBA numbers than Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6,700 DraftKings; $4,700 FanDuel) despite a considerably cheaper salary. Marcell Ozuna and Orlando Arcia also stand out as down-lineup options who rake lefties, and we have a large enough sample size to feel reasonably confident in their numbers.
Ji Man Choi 1B ($2,600 DraftKings; $2,500 FanDuel) Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Detroit Tigers (Matt Manning)
I have some moderate interest in the Pirates tonight, largely thanks to the matchup. In a limited sample size, Matt Manning has been pretty lucky this season. He has a 4.32 ERA (which was much lower before getting shelled for seven runs in his last start) but a 5.47 xFIP through eight starts.
He’s also been shelled by lefties, allowing a .361 wOBA compared to just .235 against right-handed pitching. Enter Choi, a lefty slugger who is used almost exclusively against right-handed pitching.
Choi has only made 23 appearances this season but already has six home runs. He also has a dreadful .205 batting average and a laughable 35% strikeout rate, making him a boom-or-bust GPP option — but one at a cheap price.
