The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a split slate: There’s a three-game early slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET and an 11-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s games feature a strong group of stud pitchers, with four owning a salary above $10,000 on DraftKings:
- Justin Verlander (R) $13,500, HOU @ LAA – N. Tropeano
- Clayton Kershaw (L) $11,900, LAD @ MIL – C. Anderson
- Madison Bumgarner (L) $10,900, SF @ OAK – T. Cahill
- Carlos Carrasco (R) $10,200, CLE @ TEX – B. Colon
Verlander has been one of the best pitchers in the AL this season, compiling a 2.29 ERA and 11.24 K/9. Both of those marks would represent new career bests, which is impressive considering that Verlander is a likely Hall of Famer playing in his 14th big league season.
He has a decent matchup today vs the Angels, who are implied for a slate-low 3.5 runs. Verlander also has a K Prediction of 7.5, which is the second-best mark on the slate.
The biggest concern with Verlander is his recent Statcast data. He’s allowed an average distance of 236 feet and exit velocity of 93 mph in his past two starts, both of which represent significant increases when compared to his 12-month averages. Verlander doesn’t rely on his Statcast profile as heavily as other pitchers given his strikeout ability, but it’s still a red flag.
Kershaw has equivalent Vegas data to Verlander – he’s a -172 favorite and has an opponent implied team total of 3.5 runs – but he enters today’s contest in much better recent form. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of just 170 feet, which represents a decrease of 23 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas data and distance differentials have been excellent values, owning an average Plus/Minus of +3.14 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
Kershaw’s strikeout numbers have dipped a bit this season, but he has more upside than usual against the Milwaukee Brewers. Their projected lineup has posted a strikeout rate of 25.8% against left-handers over the past 12 months, giving Kershaw a K Prediction of 6.3.
Carrasco had a subpar first half of the season by his standards but seems like a prime buy-low candidate. He’s maintained his elite strikeout ability, averaging a K/9 of 9.82, and he leads all pitchers on today’s slate with a K Prediction of 7.7. He’s also a substantial -204 favorite vs the Rangers, and pitchers with comparable K Predictions and moneyline odds have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.07.
The one big downside with Carrasco on today’s slate is that he’s pitching in Texas. The current forecast is calling for temperatures of 103 degrees, resulting in a Weather Rating of just 18. Similarly priced pitchers have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of -1.85 in comparable conditions. He seems more suitable for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) than cash games.
Bumgarner rounds out the stud pitcher group, and he’s the hardest one to make a case for. He’s a +116 underdog against the Athletics, and his opponent implied team total of 4.3 runs ranks just 12th on the slate. He also has the lowest K Prediction of the stud group at just 6.1.
Values
Vincent Velasquez appears to check all the boxes today vs the San Diego Padres. He owns strong marks in each of the three big pitching categories: 3.7 opponent implied team total, -171 moneyline odds, 6.9 K Prediction. He also limited his most recent opponent to an average distance of 188 feet, exit velocity of 83 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 18%, all three of which represent significant decreases when compared to his 12-month averages. The only real concern with Velasquez today is the weather, which currently calls for a 78% chance of precipitation at game time. If that doesn’t clear up closer to lineup lock, he’s going to be tough to trust in cash games.
On the early slate, Sonny Gray looks like a strong option vs the Mets. They’ve been anemic offensively for most of the year, and their projected lineup owns a .303 wOBA and 25.5% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. Gray is a massive -232 favorite and has an opponent implied team total of 3.5 runs, and pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.01 on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $8,000 on FanDuel and $8,700 on DraftKings, so he’s affordable across the industry.
Marcus Stroman has arguably the best matchup of the day against the Baltimore Orioles. They’ve averaged the second-fewest runs per game this season, and that was with All-Star shortstop Manny Machado in the lineup. With him gone, their projected lineup has struggled to a .283 wOBA and 28.5% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months, both of which are among the worst splits-adjusted marks on the slate. Stroman is a strong -180 favorite in this matchup, and his K Prediction of 7.1 ranks fourth among today’s starters. He’s a nice value on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Fastballs
Luke Weaver: He got off to a rough start this season but has started to turn things around recently. He’s posted a Plus/Minus of at least +14.02 on FanDuel in four of his past five starts, and he limited his most recent opponent to an average distance of 186 feet, exit velocity of 85 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of just 7%. He has a tough matchup today against the Chicago Cubs, but Weaver has upside.
Zack Godley: He trails only Carrasco and Verlander in K Prediction on today’s slate and has allowed just two earned runs over his past 13 innings. The Rockies offense has been merely average when away from Coors Field this season, averaging 4.37 runs per game, and Godley has the top Bargain Rating on DraftKings for all pitchers priced above $8,000.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays:
- Curtis Granderson (L)
- Teoscar Hernandez (R)
- Justin Smoak (S)
- Yangervis Solarte (S)
- Randall Grichuk (R)
Total Salary: $19,900
The Blue Jays implied team total of 5.2 runs trails the Yankees on today’s slate, but they arguably represent a better value on DraftKings: Their Team Value Rating of 80 is the top mark on the early slate. They’re facing Orioles right-hander Alex Cobb, who has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball in 2018. He’s pitched to a 6.41 ERA through his first 17 starts and is averaging a career-low K/9 of 6.12. Each of the stacked batters are on the positive side of their batting splits as well, with Granderson, Hernandez, Smoak, and Grichuk all owning an ISO of at least .230 over the past 12 months.
On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
- David Peralta (L)
- Nick Ahmed (R)
- A.J. Pollack (R)
- Steven Souza (R)
Total Salary: $11,700
The Diamondbacks are implied for just 4.2 runs, which is one of the lower marks on the slate. What they do have going for them is some elite recent Statcast data, with each of the stacked batters owning a distance differential of at least +9 feet over the past 15 days. They will likely be a contrarian option against Rockies left-hander Kyle Freeland.
Other Batters
Shin-Soo Choo has a tough matchup today vs. Carrasco but continues to put up some extremely impressive Statcast numbers. He’s averaged a 234-foot distance, 95 mile per hour exit velocity, and 50% hard hit rate over his past eight games, all three of which represent increases when compared to his 12 month averages. The aforementioned weather conditions should also help Choo, resulting in a Weather Rating of 82.
On the other side of the same matchup, the Indians lead all teams with an implied team total of 6.0 runs. They should be an extremely popular target against right-hander Bartolo Colon, but none of their studs is in better recent form than Francisco Lindor. He’s posted a distance differential of +11 feet over the past 15 days and has complied a .380 wOBA and .283 ISO against right-handers over the past 12 months.
The Yankees will likely be the highest-owned team on the early slate against Mets left-hander Steven Matz, and with good reason: They lead all teams with an implied team total of 5.5 runs and own a .357 wOBA against southpaws this season. No one on the Yankees has been a bigger force against left-handers than Giancarlo Stanton, owning a .536 wOBA and .446 ISO over the past 12 months.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Carlos Carrasco
Photo credit: Benny Sieu – USA TODAY Sports
