The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Value Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Jose Siri ($2,000): Outfielder, Tampa Bay Rays
It’s been a trying year for the Rays as they deal with injuries to several key starters. For that reason, they acquired Jose Siri ahead of the trade deadline to bolster their roster as they push for the postseason. Now, Siri has the chance to step up and be an immediate contributor for the playoff-hopeful Rays.
Siri was used sparingly with his former team, the Houston Astros, but will be a mainstay in the Rays’ lineup with Kevin Kiermaier and Manuel Margot out of the lineup. The 26-year-old went 0-3 in his first game with his new team, following that up with one hit and coming around to score in yesterday’s win against the Blue Jays.
We’ve seen flashes of brilliance from Siri, who ended last year with a 17.2% barrel percentage and .595 expected slugging percentage. His production has tapered this year, but his actual slugging rate remains below expected, so the pendulum should start swinging the other way.
Drew Hutchison is the probable starter for the Tigers and has been one of the worst pitchers in the league this season. Hutchison ranks in the 21st percentile or worst in virtually every analytics category, setting Siri up to overachieve relative to his salary and reach his fantasy ceiling. The Rays’ outfielder ranks among the elite in Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary, making him the top bargain option on DraftKings.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
Nick Castellanos ($2,500): Outfielder, Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies’ outfielder Nick Castellanos has been tearing things up over the past week. Still, his fantasy salary remains on the low end of the spectrum, making him the top bargain option on FanDuel main slates on Thursday night.
The Silver Slugger has recorded 12 hits over his last six outings, churning in six runs and knocking in five more. Castellanos has had his power swing working over that stretch, recording two doubles and a home run, elevating his season-long slugging percentage to .380.
Still, Castellanos remains below his expected mark and further off career averages, implying that further growth is expected from the 30-year-old. We’re anticipating that to continue Thursday night against Paolo Espino, who has done little to avoid opponents’ bats, giving up a .484 expected slugging percentage and 9.3% barrel rate.
Castellanos and the Phillies are riding high and should continue to assert themselves against the Washington Nationals tonight. Don’t overlook Castellanos’s value as he continues his recent surge.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Alek Manoah ($9,600 DraftKings, $10,700 FanDuel) vs. Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins have struggled over their recent sample, compiling a below-average .666 on-base plus slugging percentage over the past week with 51 strikeouts. Blue Jays’ starter Alek Manoah can add to that misery tonight.
Manoah has been a stabilizing force on the Jays’ starting rotation, leading the team in wins and earned run average while striking out the second-most batters. Moreover, the former first-round pick has some standout advanced metrics, supporting ongoing success as the Jays race towards the postseason.
Opponents can’t get a sniff off Manoah, making hard contact just 28.9% of the time with an equally unimpressive 4.3% barrel rate. Consequently, Manoah is dealing an expected earned run average that puts him among the top 20% of pitchers in the MLB and allows 0.99 walks and hits per inning pitched.
According to THE BAT X modeling, Manoah is an elite pitching option tonight, ranking near the top of our median and ceiling projections. Our in-house algorithm validated that position, which also rates him with an elite fantasy forecast against the Twins.
Hitter
Yordan Alvarez ($5,900 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) vs. Cleveland Guardians
Nobody has been able to contain Astros’ slugger Yordan Alvarez, so what chance does Zach Plesac have? Alvarez leads the majors with a 1.063 on-base plus slugging percentage, while Plesac has some of the worst analytics in the league. Those waves collide on Thursday night, giving Alvarez an unmatchable ceiling.
The former Rookie of the Year has been an imposing presence in the batter’s box. Alvarez ranks in the 100th percentile in hard-hit percentage, expected slugging percentage, expected batting average, and average exit velocity. More importantly, those metrics have led to tangible results. Alvarez sits tenth in the MLB in runs, seventh in runs batted in, and third in home runs, pacing the Astros in every category.
Somewhat curiously, the Astros’ designated hitter has fared better on the road than at home this season. Alvarez has a mammoth 1.119 on-base plus slugging percentage away from his friendly confines with more runs, RBIs, and homers. That’s terrible news for Plesac, who ranks in the third percentile in expected slugging percentage with a .490 mark and seventh percentile in barrel rate at 11.1%.
Several factors contribute to Alvarez’s lofty fantasy ceiling, which we expect him to reach against one of the worst pitchers in the bigs. He’s our preferred hitting option on both platforms tonight.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections belongs to the Phillies. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
Castellanos isn’t the only Phillies batter who benefits from facing Espino tonight, as the top five hitters rate as our top stacking option.
What more can be said about Kyle Schwarber? The two-time All-Star ranks second in the majors with 33 long balls and is the team leader in slugging percentage, RBIs, and runs scored. Schwarber is integral to any Phillies’ stack and warrants inclusion on any roster.
Rhys Hoskins projects as the No. 2 hitter, which is fitting as he sits second on the team in runs, homers, and on-base plus slugging percentage. The 29-year-old ranks in the top five on the Phillies in virtually every offensive category and has been operating above averages over the last week.
Alec Bohm and J.T. Realmuto occupy the power spots in the Phillies’ batting order. Bohm has been on a tear lately, recording seven hits over his past five outings, including one home run and three runs scored. Still, that’s not enough to keep pace with Realmuto, who is slugging .500 with four runs and three runs batted in.
Betting confidence is high on the Phillies as they enter tonight’s NL East matchup as -220 favorites. That aligns with THE BAT X projections, which rate this combination as the best available on tonight’s slate.
