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MLB DFS: Model Picks, Value Plays, and Top Stack on April 27

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for Wednesday’s slate.

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Real-time DFS models

Data-driven analysis & tutorials

Bargain Rating Value Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value

Adam Duvall ($2,500): Outfielder, Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves outfielder Adam Duvall isn’t off to the best start this season. Still, there are a number of reasons to consider him as a buy-low candidate on Wednesday’s main slate.

The former All-Star is slugging just .246 through his first 17 games of the season. Things have taken a turn for the worse over his recent sample, with Duvall recording just one hit, a single, over his past six games. Nevertheless, Duvall continues to make solid contact, putting up a career-best 47.4% hard-hit percentage, ranking in the 74th percentile among MLB hitters. Consequently, he’s well below his expected slugging percentage of .356 and is a progression candidate over the coming games as his actual metrics catch up to expected values.

According to our projections, that march upward starts tonight against the Chicago Cubs. Most of Mark Leiter Jr.‘s metrics rank among the worst in the league, including expected slugging percentage (26th percentile), expected weighted on-base average (20th percentile), and strikeout percentage (6th percentile).

Key in on Duvall who rates as one of the best bargains on the board at Draftkings.


MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value

Eric Hosmer ($2,700): First Baseman, San Diego Padres

The Great American Ballpark rates as one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the majors, spelling trouble for Vladimir Gutierrez and the Cincinnati Reds on Wednesday. Eric Hosmer and his San Diego Padres mashed for nine runs last night, and should put up another noteworthy performance tonight.

Hosmer has been a man on fire to start the season. The former Silver Slugger has an on-base plus slugging percentage of .971 to start the season, knocking in just one home run to start the season. Despite the hot start, Hosmer is below several key metrics, supporting that we could actually see more from the slugger. So far this season, he’s putting up a hard-hit rate of 43.8%, below his averages over the past three seasons. Moreover, his barrel percentage of 4.1% is below his career average of 7.1%.

The Padres first baseman could find a new gear in this righty vs. lefty matchup with Gutierrez. The Reds southpaw’s barrel percentage puts him in the bottom half of the league while giving up a hard-hit rate of 38.5%.

Hosmer has an elite fantasy ceiling and low salary, making him a must-play bargain at FanDuel.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Shohei Ohtani ($9,000 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel) vs. Cleveland Guardians

Only once every five days or so do we get to use Shohei Ohtani as a pitcher, and we’re not passing up that opportunity on tonight’s slate. The reigning MVP is finding his rhythm on the mound, which should continue against the Guardians.

Ohtani is putting up video game analytics to start the season. He’s sitting down batters with his 44.1% strikeout rate, ranking in the top 2% of MLB pitchers with 16.3 punchouts per nine innings. The two-way threat is throwing smoke on the mound, inducing a whiff percentage of 44.4% or better on three of his pitches, putting him in the 96th percentile overall. That has dropped his expected earned run average to 2.38, also ranking among the best.

Cleveland is sitting middle of the pack with their 24.6% strikeout rate but has been unable to get anything going at Angels Stadium, scoring just one run through two games with 16 Ks.

We are riding the hot hand with Ohtani, who is the premier pitching option against the Guardians tonight.


Hitter

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($5,800 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) vs. Boston Red Sox

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. remains a pre-eminent hitter in the MLB, putting up elite traditional and advanced metrics. The Toronto Blue Jays slugger ranks near the top of every statistical category and should continue his onslaught against Michael Wacha and the Boston Red Sox.

The Red Sox ended Vladdy’s modest five-game hit streak last time out, but we doubt Wacha will have the same luck today. The former first-round pick gives up a ton of hard contact, allowing an average exit velocity of 89.6 miles per hour while getting barreled 8.1% of the time, ranking in the bottom half of the league in both metrics.

Guerrero Jr. feasts on fastballs, which Wacha turns to 35.6% of the time, with an expected slugging percentage of .754. That is elevating his overall market to .681 on the year, above his current .594 mark. We should expect even bigger things from Vladdy over the coming games.

The BAT X and FantasyLabs projections both rate Vladdy Jr. as an elite hitting option, a good indicator he should reach his fantasy ceiling on Wednesday.

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Your deposit will be fully matched

New users only

Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections belongs to the Boston Red Sox. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.

The Bo Sox are already falling off the pace in the AL East, but they can start closing the gap against Ross Stripling and the Jays tonight. Stripling isn’t fooling anybody this season, ranking in the bottom 36th percentile or worse in expected earned run average, expected slugging percentage, and barrel percentage.

The top of the Red Sox lineup has elite-rated talent, with Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, and Rafael Devers slugging .459 or better to start the campaign. That trio projects as the three, four, and five hitters, giving them ample opportunity to do some damage against the Jays.

Their cause will be furthered by Trevor Story and Alex Verdugo, who are projected as the one-two batters who have combined for 28 hits and nine walks through the first few weeks of the season.

Runs will be easy to come by in this matchup, with the highest total on the betting board to start the day, and Red Sox hitters will help facilitate a high-scoring game.

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for Wednesday’s slate.

Start Your PRO Trial Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models

Data-driven analysis & tutorials

Bargain Rating Value Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value

Adam Duvall ($2,500): Outfielder, Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves outfielder Adam Duvall isn’t off to the best start this season. Still, there are a number of reasons to consider him as a buy-low candidate on Wednesday’s main slate.

The former All-Star is slugging just .246 through his first 17 games of the season. Things have taken a turn for the worse over his recent sample, with Duvall recording just one hit, a single, over his past six games. Nevertheless, Duvall continues to make solid contact, putting up a career-best 47.4% hard-hit percentage, ranking in the 74th percentile among MLB hitters. Consequently, he’s well below his expected slugging percentage of .356 and is a progression candidate over the coming games as his actual metrics catch up to expected values.

According to our projections, that march upward starts tonight against the Chicago Cubs. Most of Mark Leiter Jr.‘s metrics rank among the worst in the league, including expected slugging percentage (26th percentile), expected weighted on-base average (20th percentile), and strikeout percentage (6th percentile).

Key in on Duvall who rates as one of the best bargains on the board at Draftkings.


MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value

Eric Hosmer ($2,700): First Baseman, San Diego Padres

The Great American Ballpark rates as one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the majors, spelling trouble for Vladimir Gutierrez and the Cincinnati Reds on Wednesday. Eric Hosmer and his San Diego Padres mashed for nine runs last night, and should put up another noteworthy performance tonight.

Hosmer has been a man on fire to start the season. The former Silver Slugger has an on-base plus slugging percentage of .971 to start the season, knocking in just one home run to start the season. Despite the hot start, Hosmer is below several key metrics, supporting that we could actually see more from the slugger. So far this season, he’s putting up a hard-hit rate of 43.8%, below his averages over the past three seasons. Moreover, his barrel percentage of 4.1% is below his career average of 7.1%.

The Padres first baseman could find a new gear in this righty vs. lefty matchup with Gutierrez. The Reds southpaw’s barrel percentage puts him in the bottom half of the league while giving up a hard-hit rate of 38.5%.

Hosmer has an elite fantasy ceiling and low salary, making him a must-play bargain at FanDuel.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Shohei Ohtani ($9,000 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel) vs. Cleveland Guardians

Only once every five days or so do we get to use Shohei Ohtani as a pitcher, and we’re not passing up that opportunity on tonight’s slate. The reigning MVP is finding his rhythm on the mound, which should continue against the Guardians.

Ohtani is putting up video game analytics to start the season. He’s sitting down batters with his 44.1% strikeout rate, ranking in the top 2% of MLB pitchers with 16.3 punchouts per nine innings. The two-way threat is throwing smoke on the mound, inducing a whiff percentage of 44.4% or better on three of his pitches, putting him in the 96th percentile overall. That has dropped his expected earned run average to 2.38, also ranking among the best.

Cleveland is sitting middle of the pack with their 24.6% strikeout rate but has been unable to get anything going at Angels Stadium, scoring just one run through two games with 16 Ks.

We are riding the hot hand with Ohtani, who is the premier pitching option against the Guardians tonight.


Hitter

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($5,800 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) vs. Boston Red Sox

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. remains a pre-eminent hitter in the MLB, putting up elite traditional and advanced metrics. The Toronto Blue Jays slugger ranks near the top of every statistical category and should continue his onslaught against Michael Wacha and the Boston Red Sox.

The Red Sox ended Vladdy’s modest five-game hit streak last time out, but we doubt Wacha will have the same luck today. The former first-round pick gives up a ton of hard contact, allowing an average exit velocity of 89.6 miles per hour while getting barreled 8.1% of the time, ranking in the bottom half of the league in both metrics.

Guerrero Jr. feasts on fastballs, which Wacha turns to 35.6% of the time, with an expected slugging percentage of .754. That is elevating his overall market to .681 on the year, above his current .594 mark. We should expect even bigger things from Vladdy over the coming games.

The BAT X and FantasyLabs projections both rate Vladdy Jr. as an elite hitting option, a good indicator he should reach his fantasy ceiling on Wednesday.

Get Your First Deposit Matched Up to $100!

Sign up and deposit up to $100

Your deposit will be fully matched

New users only

Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections belongs to the Boston Red Sox. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.

The Bo Sox are already falling off the pace in the AL East, but they can start closing the gap against Ross Stripling and the Jays tonight. Stripling isn’t fooling anybody this season, ranking in the bottom 36th percentile or worse in expected earned run average, expected slugging percentage, and barrel percentage.

The top of the Red Sox lineup has elite-rated talent, with Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, and Rafael Devers slugging .459 or better to start the campaign. That trio projects as the three, four, and five hitters, giving them ample opportunity to do some damage against the Jays.

Their cause will be furthered by Trevor Story and Alex Verdugo, who are projected as the one-two batters who have combined for 28 hits and nine walks through the first few weeks of the season.

Runs will be easy to come by in this matchup, with the highest total on the betting board to start the day, and Red Sox hitters will help facilitate a high-scoring game.