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MLB DFS: Model Picks, Value Plays, and Top Stack on May 17

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.

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Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value

LaMonte Wade ($3,100): Outfielder, San Francisco Giants

Road teams at Coors Field get a lot of love in THE BAT and our in-house projections. There are so many Giants players to like on this slate, but if we are looking for the best bargain value on DraftKings, that has to be LaMonte Wade. Leading off for the Giants, who are implied for a slate-high 6.2 runs, is always a great spot to be. In his second season with the Giants, Wade has a career-high .348 wOBA and a 60% hard-hit rate.

The Giants get a matchup with right-hander Chad Kuhl who has pitched very well thus far in his first season with the Rockies. Kuhl has a career-best 3.54 FIP and a 0.79 HR/9. In his career and this season, Kuhl struggles most with left-handed batters, which is what he will be given a heavy dose of tonight. It is hard to get away from Wade even as a one-off on this slate, as he is the highest-rated batter on DraftKings.


MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value

Marcus Semien ($2,500): Second Baseman/Short Stop, Texas Rangers

Marcus Semien has really struggled this season, but with his salary continuing to drop, now is the time to get back on track. He has a hit and a run scored in back-to-back games, which is a step in the right direction. Semien has a .204 wOBA and a .054 ISO this season which is atrocious. However, outside of the Giants’ value options, Semien has the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate with a 93% Bargain Rating.

Semien and the Rangers get a home matchup against left-hander Reid Detmers who is coming off a no-hitter against the Rays. Detmers threw 110 pitches and only recorded two strikeouts. Pretty impressive for only his 11th major-league start! Detmers should come back to Earth tonight as the Rangers are implied for 4.1 runs. Semien is projected to bat second once again and is simply way too cheap on FanDuel.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Jose Berrios ($7,800 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel) vs. Seattle Mariners

The pitching options on this 10-game slate are not all that great. Jose Berrios, who comes in as a pretty strong value on both DraftKings and FanDuel, has either the highest or second-highest ceiling in both THE BAT and our in-house projections. In his first full season with the Blue Jays, Berrios is off to a relatively slow start with a career-low 15.3% strikeout rate and is allowing a career-high 49.2% hard-hit rate.

Berrios is projected to be the second-most popular pitcher in this home matchup against the Mariners, who are implied for 3.7 runs. The Mariners have the fourth-lowest team wOBA and the sixth-highest strikeout per at-bat on the slate. Berrios has been a little boom or bust this season, but the matchups have been very difficult. This Mariners matchup should be easier as our model has Berrios with the highest strikeout prediction at 6.15.


Hitter

Aaron Judge ($6,100 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel) at Baltimore Orioles

Aaron Judge is the best player on the best team in the league right now. He is leading the league with 12 home runs as he has a very high .336 ISO and a .430 wOBA. Judge has a career-high 64.8% hard-hit rate and a 27.3% barrel percentage. Anything he puts the bat on is being tattooed. The Yankees are a league-best 26-9 as they are implied for 5.3 runs tonight. They are the biggest favorite on the slate against the Orioles.

The red-hot Yankees, who have won 19 of their last 22 games, get a matchup against Spenser Watkins. In his six starts this season, Watkins has yet to find the winner’s circle. When it comes to pitchers, Watkins is one of the worst options on the slate in this matchup. He only has an 11% strikeout rate as he has yet to get more than three strikeouts in any of his starts.

Judge should be able to tee off against Watkins tonight.

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Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections in our stacking tool comes from the Los Angeles Dodgers. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.

No Coors Field was a little bit of a surprise when running the best stacks that THE BAT had to offer. Instead we have the Los Angeles Dodgers, who are implied for 4.5 runs.

The Dodgers lead the National League with a 22-12 record as they have a league-best .330 on-base percentage causing nightmares on the bases for opposing pitchers.

Overall, the ownership for most of these Dodgers batters are low, making this a very intriguing stack. This will be Game 2 of a double-header, so make sure to check the lineups page to see who is in and out of the lineup tonight.

Mookie Betts leads the way batting first in his third season with the Dodgers. After a slow start, Betts is averaging 14 DraftKings points in his last four games. During that time he has at least one hit, run, and RBI with two home runs. He is leading the team with seven home runs and is a steal threat.

Free-money Freddie Freeman leads the Dodgers with 38 hits as he is the only player batting above .300 thus far. After winning a World Series with the Braves last season, Freeman hasn’t missed a beat in his first season with the Dodgers. He ranks seventh in the league with a .402 on-base percentage.

Trea Turner is the most expensive Dodgers bat, but he has been consistent as they come. Turner has at least one hit in each of his last eight games. He leads the Dodgers with six steals. The power for turning has been lacking a bit as he only has one home run and a .107 ISO, but still a great option.

Normally paying down for catcher is the preferred option, but Will Smith needs to be considered in the upper pricing tier as he is batting in the clean-up spot for the Dodgers. Similar to Turner, Smith’s power is lacking with a .120 ISO, but he is in a very favorable spot in the lineup to do a lot of damage.

Skipping Max Muncy and going down to the sixth spot in the lineup with Justin Turner is the best option for this stack, according to THE BAT. Turner has a higher projection than Muncy, but both have been swinging a cold bat. However, he has two games of 25 DraftKings points or more in his last seven games.

The Dodgers will get a relatively tough matchup against Diamondbacks’ starting pitcher Merrill Kelly in Game 2 of of this double-header. Kelly has done a fantastic job of keeping the ball in the yard as he has a career-best 0.21 HR/9 this season. Joey Wendle last game was the only player to take Kelly deep in his 42 innings pitched thus far. That will be put to the test against this very powerful Dodgers lineup. Kelly also has an 85.8% left on-base percentage and a much higher xERA than ERA. He has gotten lucky.

We’ll bank on that luck running out tonight.

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.

Start Your PRO Trial Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models

Data-driven analysis & tutorials

Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value

LaMonte Wade ($3,100): Outfielder, San Francisco Giants

Road teams at Coors Field get a lot of love in THE BAT and our in-house projections. There are so many Giants players to like on this slate, but if we are looking for the best bargain value on DraftKings, that has to be LaMonte Wade. Leading off for the Giants, who are implied for a slate-high 6.2 runs, is always a great spot to be. In his second season with the Giants, Wade has a career-high .348 wOBA and a 60% hard-hit rate.

The Giants get a matchup with right-hander Chad Kuhl who has pitched very well thus far in his first season with the Rockies. Kuhl has a career-best 3.54 FIP and a 0.79 HR/9. In his career and this season, Kuhl struggles most with left-handed batters, which is what he will be given a heavy dose of tonight. It is hard to get away from Wade even as a one-off on this slate, as he is the highest-rated batter on DraftKings.


MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value

Marcus Semien ($2,500): Second Baseman/Short Stop, Texas Rangers

Marcus Semien has really struggled this season, but with his salary continuing to drop, now is the time to get back on track. He has a hit and a run scored in back-to-back games, which is a step in the right direction. Semien has a .204 wOBA and a .054 ISO this season which is atrocious. However, outside of the Giants’ value options, Semien has the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate with a 93% Bargain Rating.

Semien and the Rangers get a home matchup against left-hander Reid Detmers who is coming off a no-hitter against the Rays. Detmers threw 110 pitches and only recorded two strikeouts. Pretty impressive for only his 11th major-league start! Detmers should come back to Earth tonight as the Rangers are implied for 4.1 runs. Semien is projected to bat second once again and is simply way too cheap on FanDuel.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Jose Berrios ($7,800 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel) vs. Seattle Mariners

The pitching options on this 10-game slate are not all that great. Jose Berrios, who comes in as a pretty strong value on both DraftKings and FanDuel, has either the highest or second-highest ceiling in both THE BAT and our in-house projections. In his first full season with the Blue Jays, Berrios is off to a relatively slow start with a career-low 15.3% strikeout rate and is allowing a career-high 49.2% hard-hit rate.

Berrios is projected to be the second-most popular pitcher in this home matchup against the Mariners, who are implied for 3.7 runs. The Mariners have the fourth-lowest team wOBA and the sixth-highest strikeout per at-bat on the slate. Berrios has been a little boom or bust this season, but the matchups have been very difficult. This Mariners matchup should be easier as our model has Berrios with the highest strikeout prediction at 6.15.


Hitter

Aaron Judge ($6,100 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel) at Baltimore Orioles

Aaron Judge is the best player on the best team in the league right now. He is leading the league with 12 home runs as he has a very high .336 ISO and a .430 wOBA. Judge has a career-high 64.8% hard-hit rate and a 27.3% barrel percentage. Anything he puts the bat on is being tattooed. The Yankees are a league-best 26-9 as they are implied for 5.3 runs tonight. They are the biggest favorite on the slate against the Orioles.

The red-hot Yankees, who have won 19 of their last 22 games, get a matchup against Spenser Watkins. In his six starts this season, Watkins has yet to find the winner’s circle. When it comes to pitchers, Watkins is one of the worst options on the slate in this matchup. He only has an 11% strikeout rate as he has yet to get more than three strikeouts in any of his starts.

Judge should be able to tee off against Watkins tonight.

Get Your First Deposit Matched Up to $100!

Sign up and deposit up to $100

Your deposit will be fully matched

New users only

Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections in our stacking tool comes from the Los Angeles Dodgers. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.

No Coors Field was a little bit of a surprise when running the best stacks that THE BAT had to offer. Instead we have the Los Angeles Dodgers, who are implied for 4.5 runs.

The Dodgers lead the National League with a 22-12 record as they have a league-best .330 on-base percentage causing nightmares on the bases for opposing pitchers.

Overall, the ownership for most of these Dodgers batters are low, making this a very intriguing stack. This will be Game 2 of a double-header, so make sure to check the lineups page to see who is in and out of the lineup tonight.

Mookie Betts leads the way batting first in his third season with the Dodgers. After a slow start, Betts is averaging 14 DraftKings points in his last four games. During that time he has at least one hit, run, and RBI with two home runs. He is leading the team with seven home runs and is a steal threat.

Free-money Freddie Freeman leads the Dodgers with 38 hits as he is the only player batting above .300 thus far. After winning a World Series with the Braves last season, Freeman hasn’t missed a beat in his first season with the Dodgers. He ranks seventh in the league with a .402 on-base percentage.

Trea Turner is the most expensive Dodgers bat, but he has been consistent as they come. Turner has at least one hit in each of his last eight games. He leads the Dodgers with six steals. The power for turning has been lacking a bit as he only has one home run and a .107 ISO, but still a great option.

Normally paying down for catcher is the preferred option, but Will Smith needs to be considered in the upper pricing tier as he is batting in the clean-up spot for the Dodgers. Similar to Turner, Smith’s power is lacking with a .120 ISO, but he is in a very favorable spot in the lineup to do a lot of damage.

Skipping Max Muncy and going down to the sixth spot in the lineup with Justin Turner is the best option for this stack, according to THE BAT. Turner has a higher projection than Muncy, but both have been swinging a cold bat. However, he has two games of 25 DraftKings points or more in his last seven games.

The Dodgers will get a relatively tough matchup against Diamondbacks’ starting pitcher Merrill Kelly in Game 2 of of this double-header. Kelly has done a fantastic job of keeping the ball in the yard as he has a career-best 0.21 HR/9 this season. Joey Wendle last game was the only player to take Kelly deep in his 42 innings pitched thus far. That will be put to the test against this very powerful Dodgers lineup. Kelly also has an 85.8% left on-base percentage and a much higher xERA than ERA. He has gotten lucky.

We’ll bank on that luck running out tonight.