The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Lane Thomas ($2,700): Outfielder, Washington Nationals
Sitting atop of THE BAT and our in-house projections for the highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings is Nationals outfielder, Lane Thomas. After struggling in the Dodgers series going 0-11 from the plate, Thomas was given the night off in the first game of this Rockies series. Thomas is projected to bat leadoff for the Nationals, who are implied for 4.9 runs against left-hander Austin Gomber who has one of the worst projections on the slate.
Gomber has allowed at least two earned runs in seven of his eight starts this season, posting an ERA of 4.11. He has a 1.17 HR/9 as Gomber has given up six home runs in those eight starts. Pitching in Coors Field can deflate pitcher stats, but Gomber has been just as bad on the road as he has been at home this season. There is plenty of reasons to like this Nationals stack tonight, but make sure to start with Thomas leading off.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
Amed Rosario ($2,400): Short Stop/Outfielder, Cleveland Guardians
Projected to bat second on our Lineups Page, Amed Rosario has an 89% Bargain Rating and dual position eligibility. He is averaging a career-low 14% strikeout rate, but he hasn’t been able to turn that into much success when hitting the ball as he also has a career-low .054 ISO and .262 wOBA. Rosario has the speed to cause problems on the bases, but he needs to get on base first and foremost. This salary provides bounce-back potential.
Rosario will get a matchup against right-hander Alex Faedo who has been solid in his first season since being called up to the big leagues. Faedo had a matchup against the Guardians in his last start and allowed two earned runs and six hits while pitching 5.1 innings. Overall, Faedo struggles with getting strikeouts as he has a 16.3% strikeout rate, but he has been lucky with an 88.2% left on-base percentage. Rosario can get to Faedo tonight.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Shane Bieber ($9,000 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel) at Detroit Tigers
There are several really solid pitchers on this slate, but Shane Bieber seems to be a consensus option for THE BAT and our in-house projections. The value that Bieber provides is very high for both DraftKings and FanDuel at this cheap price tag. Bieber has had back-to-back strong outings where he has given up three runs in 13 innings with 17 strikeouts. His most recent start against this Tigers lineup, he had a season-high 10 strikeouts.
There is a little risk with Bieber as he doesn’t seem to be the pitcher he once was. His velocity is a career-low as his fastball is averaging just over 91 MPH. However, at this price the upside is impossible to ignore. The Tigers rank last by a wide margin in runs with 122 on the season and are only implied for 3.4 runs tonight. The Tigers are also the only team with a below .1 ISO as they have hit a league-low 25 home runs. Great spot for Bieber again.
Trea Turner ($5,900 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) at Arizona Diamondbacks
The Dodgers are looking incredible in the projections once again, but it is Trea Turner who seems to be rating out the best. Turner has been one of the most consistent batters lately, as he has at least one hit in 18-straight games. After having a .200 or higher ISO in three-straight seasons, Turner has only hit three home runs to go along with his .141 ISO. The consistency is what sets Turner above the rest of the higher-priced range.
Turner feels like an elite value on FanDuel as he has a 91% Bargain Rating in this matchup against veteran left-hander Madison Bumgarner. In his third season with the Diamondbacks, Bumgarner has been much better with a 2.76 ERA, which is the lowest he has had since the 2016 season. However, Bumgarner still struggles with right-handed batters. 12 of his 13 earned runs allowed have come from hits to right-handed batters.
The power may be gone or limited, but Turner still provides plenty of upside.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections in our stacking tool comes from the Boston Red Sox. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
The Boston Red Sox are one of the hottest teams in the league right now, as they have won 10 of their last 13 games. During that time, they have averaged 7.7 runs per game.
The Red Sox are projected for a slate-high 5.8 runs against the Baltimore Orioles as they are a -190 moneyline favorite. Great spot to target the Red Sox at home against a division rival.
Leading off is Enrique Hernandez, who has one of the best ratings on DraftKings tonight at his ridiculous $3,500 salary. He is only batting .200 this season, but he has at least one hit in 12 of his last 13 games. Hernandez is impossible to ignore in this stack and is a great way to get it started with being a value.
Now we get into the meat of the lineup with Rafael Devers, who leads the Red Sox this season in hits and home runs with 10. He is the highest-priced player in the stack and the highest for all third basemen. Devers will get the platoon advantage tonight and has three home runs in his last five games.
Veteran J.D. Martinez leads the Red Sox and the entire league with a ridiculous .380 batting average. He also has a league-high .444 wOBA, making him arguably one of the best plays on the slate. During the last two series, Martinez is batting .640 with 12 runs scored. He has a very hot bat!
If Martinez hasn’t been so good, we would be talking about how well Xander Bogaerts is playing this season. He is batting .319 and has a .369 wOBA. There are several awesome short stops on this slate, including Trea Turner, who I wrote up above, but don’t forget Bogaerts, as he is having one of his best seasons.
Last but certainly not least is Trevor Story projected to bat in the sixth spot tonight. Story is the highest-priced second baseman, but he has had a positive Plus/Minus in 10 of this last 15 games on DraftKings, making him worth the steep salary. He has seven home runs in his last seven games!
This Red Sox lineup draw a matchup against Kyle Bradish, who is in his first season in the big leagues. It has been a rough start for Bradish, as he has allowed at least one home run in each of his five starts. He has shown a very impressive 24.8% strikeout rate, but he is the lowest-rated pitcher in our model tonight. Bradish is allowing a 43.8% hard-hit rate and a 2.03 HR/9.
The Red Sox should have no trouble with the young right-hander.