The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for tonight’s slate.
Bargain Rating Value Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Chad Pinder ($2,500): Outfielder, Oakland Athletics
The A’s will have plenty of opportunities to put up runs against Konnor Pilkington and the Guardians on Thursday. Chad Pinder has been one of the A’s top producers this season, and he projects as a top bargain option on tonight’s main slate.
Pinder is the A’s pacesetter in slugging percentage, churning his .399 mark to 15 runs batted in and 14 runs scored. The 30-year-old is also the team leader in home runs, despite playing only 42 games this season.
The A’s outfielder’s advanced metrics support that more impressive showings could be on the horizon. Pinder has a hard-hit rate of 46.4%, placing him in the top 83 percentile. Additionally, he’s coming up short relative to his expected slugging percentage, suggesting that we have yet to see him reach his full potential.
Aside from the righty vs. lefty matchup, benefiting Pinder, Pilkington also has one of the worst barrel rates in the MLB at 10.9%. That’s driving his expected earned run average up, leaving Pinder and his teammates with lots of upside in the series opener.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
Joey Gallo ($2,300): Outfielder, New York Yankees
For years, Joey Gallo has been an all-or-nothing kind of hitter. Coming into this season, 59.3% of his hits were extra-base knocks, with Gallo perennially ranking as one of the worst strikeout hitters. According to THE BAT X projections, we should expect more of the former tonight against the Twins.
Gallo has been trending up over the past week, elevating his slugging percentage to .412 over the last seven days. The Yankees outfielder has homered once, driving in three runs and cashing twice himself.
He’ll have a chance to improve on those stats against Dylan Bundy, who can’t avoid barrels. The 29-year-old has an 11.3% barrel rate, putting him in the bottom 12% of MLB pitchers and leading to 1.7 home runs per nine innings.
The Yankees are looking for atonement after last night’s 8-1 defeat, and Gallo will be leading the charge. The two-time All-Star can improve on his already impressive 17.7% barrel rate and exceed the implied value of his $2,300 salary.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Max Fried ($9,500 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
The Braves are looking to extend their seven-game winning streak, and they’re putting their best foot forward, sending Max Fried to the mound.
Fried has been outstanding to start the season. He leads the Braves starting pitchers with 1.01 walks + hits per inning pitched and ranks second with a 2.74 earned run average.
The 28-year-old keeps batters guessing with a five-pitch arsenal, inducing a chase rate that puts him in the 95th percentile. Fried turns to his curveball as his primary put-away pitch, getting a 40.7% whiff rate. He’s also generating a 29.4% whiff rate or better with his change up and slider.
The Pirates have been a free-swinging team over the past couple of days, striking out 23 times in two games. Things don’t figure to get much easier against Fried, who is coming off an 8.0 inning shutout performance in his last start.
Fried leads THE BAT X ceiling and median projections, and he grades out well in the FantasyLabs projections as well.
Hitter
Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6,200 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
We’re going back to the Braves well, highlighting Ronald Acuna Jr. as our top hitting option on tonight’s evening slate. Acuna Jr. has been unstoppable lately, posting a 1.292 on-base plus slugging percentage over the past week, including nine hits and three home runs across five outings.
Acuna’s success isn’t limited to the last seven days, as he’s been one of the best hitters in the game since returning to action at the end of April. The two-time All-Star ranks in the 95th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, and barrel rate, resulting in a .578 expected slugging percentage.
Pirates’ probable starter JT Brubaker has looked out of sorts to start the season. The third-year pro is 0-5 with a 4.70 earned run average, an 8.9% barrel rate, and a .440 expected slugging percentage.
Acruna Jr. ranks near the top of our median projections and should reach his elite fantasy ceiling against the Pirates.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections belongs to the Guardians. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
The Guardians are turning up the heat in time for summer, winning eight of their past 11 games. MVP candidate Jose Ramirez remains the offensive catalyst and is the tentpole to hang your Guardians stacks on.
Ramirez leads the majors in runs batted in, ranks fourth in slugging percentage, and is tied for the seventh-most long balls. He’s running hot over his last 12 games, compiling three homers, nine runs batted in, and five stolen bases.
Myles Straw and Amed Rosario are projected as the one-two hitters tonight, offering elite upside batting ahead of Ramirez. Straw has a .329 on-base percentage and has crossed home plate 38 times this season. Rosario is second on the team with 48 hits, coming around to score 22 times.
Josh Naylor and Oscar Gonzalez round out our Guardians stack, and both players have been primary contributors over Cleveland’s recent upswing. Naylor has a .389 slugging percentage over his past five games, with Gonzalez bursting onto the scene with a .825 on-base plus slugging percentage through his first 12 games.
Betting market confidence is high on the Guardians. They enter the contest as -175 favorites, with a total set at 8.5. That is also reflected in our projections, rating Cleveland as the top stacking option.
