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MLB DFS: Model Picks, Value Plays, and Top Stack for July 5

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.

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Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value

Darick Hall ($2,700): First Baseman, Philadelphia Phillies

Projected to bat cleanup for the Philadelphia Phillies, Darick Hall is a very strong value play in just his sixth major league game. In his first five contests, Hall has three home runs and four RBI. Being eligible at the same position as Rhys Hoskins may bring his ownership down, but Hall has a 95% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. The Phillies are implied for 5.4 runs, so they’re one of the top team targets on Tuesday.

Hall will get a prime matchup against 35-year-old right-hander Paolo Espino, who will start for the fifth-straight time this season. Espino has allowed at least one home run in his last three starts with seven combined earned runs. His 18.8% strikeout rate and 13.3% walk rate do not strike fear into opposing batters. Expect the Phillies to get to Espino early and often in this matchup.

Hall is an excellent source of value with upside in this spot.


MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value

Wilmer Flores ($2,700): First Baseman/Third Baseman, San Francisco Giants 

The San Francisco Giants have several cheap bats and are a great team to target on FanDuel. Finding a value player with dual eligibility is very helpful on this large 12-game main slate, and Wilmer Flores fits that description. Flores has been on base in nine of his last 10 games, including eight walks in his last six. His ability to get on base consistently gives him a solid DFS floor, and he’s expected to carry one of the top ownerships on the slate.

Flores has also been remarkable throughout his career against left-handed pitching. He has a .218 ISO and averages a home run in one out of every 18.9 at-bats in that split. That’s compared to a .152 ISO and a home run in one out of every 30.4 at-bats against right-handers.

The Diamondbacks will start Tyler Gilbert, who has been rocked recently. Over his last two starts, Gilbert has given up 12 earned runs and six homers. Six of his seven home runs allowed this season have been to right-handed batters, so this is a fantastic spot for Flores.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Luis Garcia ($9,500 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel) vs. Kansas City Royals

Tuesday’s slate appears to lack an obvious top-flight starting pitcher. However, Luis Garcia and the Astros are the biggest favorites on the slate as the Royals are implied for only 3.4 runs tonight. The Royals have the third-lowest strikeout rate on this slate, but they have scored the fourth-fewest runs this season. Even if the strikeouts are limited, Garcia is in a great spot to keep runs off the board.

Garcia has a greater than 25% strikeout rate for the second-straight season, allowing only a .208 batting average and a 1.06 WHIP. His hard-hit rate of 37.8% is also the lowest in his career. He will be tough to avoid given the lack of quality alternatives at pitcher on Tuesday. The Astros are implied for two more runs than the Royals as they look to win their eighth-straight game.


Hitter

Jose Ramirez ($4,900 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) at Detroit Tigers

Coming in at what feels like a really good discount, Jose Ramirez and the Guardians are looking to avoid their fifth loss in their last six games. Ramirez has recorded a negative Plus/Minus in 15 of his last 17 games but still has the highest projected ceiling of any batter per THE BAT. Despite his recent struggles, Ramirez still has an excellent .289 ISO, a .400 wOBA, and a career-high 166 wRC+.

Ramirez will get a great matchup against Tigers right-hander Drew Hutchinson, who has yet to win a game this season. In his only two starts, Hutchinson has allowed a combined five earned runs. He has a 4.81 ERA and only a 15.5% strikeout rate. Hutchinson is also allowing a career-high 45.5% hard-hit rate. Overall, this is a great time to buy low on a talented player.

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Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections in our stacking tool comes from the New York Yankees. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.

There is no better team in the league than the New York Yankees, making them an unsurprising choice for THE BAT’s top stack. As a team, they lead the league in runs, home runs, RBIs, ISO, and many other stats.

The Yankees are implied for 5.4 runs tonight, which is tied with the Phillies for the most on the slate. They have several worthy stacks, but this 2-through-6 stack is grading out best.

THE BAT’s top stack is leaving out the lead-off hitter and starting with the No. 2 batter in Aaron Judge. He has put together one of the best seasons in his career with a .337 ISO and a .408 wOBA. Judge leads the league with 29 home runs and has a great chance to add to that total tonight.

Anthony Rizzo has hit a home run in three of his last five games as he tries to catch Judge. Rizzo is the only batter in this stack that does not get the platoon advantage. He has been worse against left-handed pitchers throughout his career, but he owns a 124 wRC+ in that split this season.

Giancarlo Stanton is another Yankees batter clicking on all cylinders right now. He has hit a home run in six of his last 10 games. Stanton is very boom or bust as 34.5% of his hits have come via the long ball. Seven of his previous nine hits have been home runs, giving him a low floor but an excellent ceiling.

In his first season with the Bronx Bombers, Josh Donaldson is struggling with the long ball. However, Donaldson still has some pop left in his bat as he leads the team with 16 doubles. He has had an extra-base hit in four of his last six games, making for a great option in the No. 5 spot.

Rounding out this stack is second baseman Gleyber Torres. He has been in and out of the lineup recently but did have three hits just three games ago. His salary is near Donaldson’s, so saving money with these two batters allows you to pay up for the heavy home run hitters.

The Pirates will start southpaw Jose Quintana, who has allowed only three earned runs in his last 12 innings. His 0.83 HR/9 will also be put to the test in this matchup. In his 15 starts this season, Quintana has a 1-4 record but a solid 3.43 ERA. However, his 4.38 xERA suggests he hasn’t been nearly as good as his traditional mark indicates. The Yankees should have no problems getting to the veteran left-hander.

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.

Start Your PRO Trial Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models

Data-driven analysis & tutorials

Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value

Darick Hall ($2,700): First Baseman, Philadelphia Phillies

Projected to bat cleanup for the Philadelphia Phillies, Darick Hall is a very strong value play in just his sixth major league game. In his first five contests, Hall has three home runs and four RBI. Being eligible at the same position as Rhys Hoskins may bring his ownership down, but Hall has a 95% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. The Phillies are implied for 5.4 runs, so they’re one of the top team targets on Tuesday.

Hall will get a prime matchup against 35-year-old right-hander Paolo Espino, who will start for the fifth-straight time this season. Espino has allowed at least one home run in his last three starts with seven combined earned runs. His 18.8% strikeout rate and 13.3% walk rate do not strike fear into opposing batters. Expect the Phillies to get to Espino early and often in this matchup.

Hall is an excellent source of value with upside in this spot.


MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value

Wilmer Flores ($2,700): First Baseman/Third Baseman, San Francisco Giants 

The San Francisco Giants have several cheap bats and are a great team to target on FanDuel. Finding a value player with dual eligibility is very helpful on this large 12-game main slate, and Wilmer Flores fits that description. Flores has been on base in nine of his last 10 games, including eight walks in his last six. His ability to get on base consistently gives him a solid DFS floor, and he’s expected to carry one of the top ownerships on the slate.

Flores has also been remarkable throughout his career against left-handed pitching. He has a .218 ISO and averages a home run in one out of every 18.9 at-bats in that split. That’s compared to a .152 ISO and a home run in one out of every 30.4 at-bats against right-handers.

The Diamondbacks will start Tyler Gilbert, who has been rocked recently. Over his last two starts, Gilbert has given up 12 earned runs and six homers. Six of his seven home runs allowed this season have been to right-handed batters, so this is a fantastic spot for Flores.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Luis Garcia ($9,500 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel) vs. Kansas City Royals

Tuesday’s slate appears to lack an obvious top-flight starting pitcher. However, Luis Garcia and the Astros are the biggest favorites on the slate as the Royals are implied for only 3.4 runs tonight. The Royals have the third-lowest strikeout rate on this slate, but they have scored the fourth-fewest runs this season. Even if the strikeouts are limited, Garcia is in a great spot to keep runs off the board.

Garcia has a greater than 25% strikeout rate for the second-straight season, allowing only a .208 batting average and a 1.06 WHIP. His hard-hit rate of 37.8% is also the lowest in his career. He will be tough to avoid given the lack of quality alternatives at pitcher on Tuesday. The Astros are implied for two more runs than the Royals as they look to win their eighth-straight game.


Hitter

Jose Ramirez ($4,900 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) at Detroit Tigers

Coming in at what feels like a really good discount, Jose Ramirez and the Guardians are looking to avoid their fifth loss in their last six games. Ramirez has recorded a negative Plus/Minus in 15 of his last 17 games but still has the highest projected ceiling of any batter per THE BAT. Despite his recent struggles, Ramirez still has an excellent .289 ISO, a .400 wOBA, and a career-high 166 wRC+.

Ramirez will get a great matchup against Tigers right-hander Drew Hutchinson, who has yet to win a game this season. In his only two starts, Hutchinson has allowed a combined five earned runs. He has a 4.81 ERA and only a 15.5% strikeout rate. Hutchinson is also allowing a career-high 45.5% hard-hit rate. Overall, this is a great time to buy low on a talented player.

Get Your First Deposit Matched Up to $100!

Sign up and deposit up to $100

Your deposit will be fully matched

New users only

Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections in our stacking tool comes from the New York Yankees. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.

There is no better team in the league than the New York Yankees, making them an unsurprising choice for THE BAT’s top stack. As a team, they lead the league in runs, home runs, RBIs, ISO, and many other stats.

The Yankees are implied for 5.4 runs tonight, which is tied with the Phillies for the most on the slate. They have several worthy stacks, but this 2-through-6 stack is grading out best.

THE BAT’s top stack is leaving out the lead-off hitter and starting with the No. 2 batter in Aaron Judge. He has put together one of the best seasons in his career with a .337 ISO and a .408 wOBA. Judge leads the league with 29 home runs and has a great chance to add to that total tonight.

Anthony Rizzo has hit a home run in three of his last five games as he tries to catch Judge. Rizzo is the only batter in this stack that does not get the platoon advantage. He has been worse against left-handed pitchers throughout his career, but he owns a 124 wRC+ in that split this season.

Giancarlo Stanton is another Yankees batter clicking on all cylinders right now. He has hit a home run in six of his last 10 games. Stanton is very boom or bust as 34.5% of his hits have come via the long ball. Seven of his previous nine hits have been home runs, giving him a low floor but an excellent ceiling.

In his first season with the Bronx Bombers, Josh Donaldson is struggling with the long ball. However, Donaldson still has some pop left in his bat as he leads the team with 16 doubles. He has had an extra-base hit in four of his last six games, making for a great option in the No. 5 spot.

Rounding out this stack is second baseman Gleyber Torres. He has been in and out of the lineup recently but did have three hits just three games ago. His salary is near Donaldson’s, so saving money with these two batters allows you to pay up for the heavy home run hitters.

The Pirates will start southpaw Jose Quintana, who has allowed only three earned runs in his last 12 innings. His 0.83 HR/9 will also be put to the test in this matchup. In his 15 starts this season, Quintana has a 1-4 record but a solid 3.43 ERA. However, his 4.38 xERA suggests he hasn’t been nearly as good as his traditional mark indicates. The Yankees should have no problems getting to the veteran left-hander.