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MLB DFS: Model Picks, Value Plays, and Top Stack for July 26

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.

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Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value

Bobby Dalbec ($2,500): First Baseman/Third Baseman, Boston Red Sox

Bobby Dalbec leads THE BAT in terms of projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings. After an incredible first two seasons in the league, Dalbec’s ISO has come down to .144 and his wOBA to .279. However, he has still shown upside occasionally, so getting him in a good matchup like tonight is key. The Guardians are projected to start Bryan Shaw for his first start in his career.

Having your first start on the road at Fenway Park feels like a tall task, especially when Shaw has struggled out of the bullpen. Shaw has appeared in 39 games this season and has a 5.29 ERA and a career-worst 1.85 HR/9. This may be a good time for Dalbec to find the power that he’s displayed the past two seasons. The Red Sox are implied for 5.6 runs in this matchup as they look to get back on track after losing three of their last four. This feels like a fantastic matchup to take the savings with Dalbec.


MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value

Max Muncy ($2,400): Second Baseman/Third Baseman, Los Angeles Dodgers

Max Muncy continues to be a great value on FanDuel. Having dual eligibility only helps his case as Muncy comes in with a 93% Bargain Rating on Tuesday. The Dodgers not only have a commanding lead in the NL West, but they’ve also won 19 of their last 22 games. Muncy has struggled a bit by his standards — he owns a .148 ISO and .286 wOBA — but his hard-hit rate is above 40% for the fifth-straight year.

Muncy finds himself in a great situation projected to bat No. 6 for the Dodgers, whose implied team total of 5.7 runs is tied for the second-highest on the slate. The Nationals will send out Josiah Gray, who spent a few years with the Dodgers. He leads the Nationals in wins and strikeouts and has a 4.40 ERA. The downside for Gray is the long ball, as he has a 2.04 HR/9. In his lone matchup against the Dodgers this season, Gray allowed seven earned runs and three home runs in only three innings pitched. This is a great spot for Muncy to get ahold of one.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Shane McClanahan ($10,300 DraftKings, $11,600 FanDuel) at Baltimore Orioles

Looking at the ownership among pitchers on this slate, no one stands out as the clear top option. With the Orioles implied for a slate-low 3.2 runs tonight, Shane McClanahan seems like the best choice. He leads the entire league with a 1.71 ERA and has an extremely impressive 35.7% strikeout rate. Those numbers are tough to beat, even with McClanahan being the highest-priced pitcher on the slate.

Not only are the Orioles implied for only 3.2 runs, but they also have a top-10 team strikeout rate. McClanahan has averaged 27.1 DraftKings points per game, and he has only finished below 20 points once all season. McClanahan is very safe but also has enormous upside in this matchup.


Hitter

Jose Ramirez ($5,800 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) at Boston Red Sox

Once again, the highest ceiling batter in THE BAT is Guardians superstar Jose Ramirez. His numbers have fallen slightly recently, but Ramirez still has a .280 ISO and .391 wOBA. One of the best parts about Ramirez is he simply doesn’t strike out. His 9.9% strikeout rate is the lowest mark of in his career and stands out as a clear outlier in 2022.

Ramirez draws a matchup Tuesday against rookie Josh Winckowski, who owns a 4.38 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP through seven career starts. His 16.3% strikeout rate also should not strike fear in the heart of Ramirez.

The young right-hander has also struggled with pitching at Fenway Park. Winckowski has allowed a 5.49 ERA and .371 wOBA at home this season, compared to a 3.12 and .269 on the road.

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Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections in our stacking tool comes from the Colorado Rockies. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.

The Rockies are grading out as the best stack according to THE BAT for this 13-game slate. It is a little odd seeing the home-team Rockies come in with the top stack — that designation usually goes to the road team — but that should work in our favor. Only one player in this stack has a projected ownership above 10%, making them an ideal team to target in tournaments.

They rank seventh in the league in scoring and wOBA, and the Rockies’ implied team total of 5.6 runs is tied for the third-highest mark on the slate.

Connor Joe will lead off for the Rockies and is the cheapest player in this stack. Joe has struggled recently but still leads the Rockies in on-base percentage and is tied for the team lead in stolen bases. Having a dual-threat hitter at the top of the order provides a lot of upside.

In his first season with the Rockies, Kris Bryant has been very impressive with a career-best 13.9% strikeout rate paired with a .367 wOBA and a .179 ISO. He only has 158 at-bats this season, so we haven’t seen the true upside with Bryant playing at Coors Field. He leads this stack with 10.06 projected points.

We go from first-time Rockies outfielder to the 12-year veteran Charlie Blackmon, who has at least one hit in 11 of his last 12 games. Blackmon has an impressive .198 ISO and is second on the team in home runs with 15. He is as consistent as they come and is the only batter in this stack with the platoon advantage.

Power-hitter C.J. Cron will serve as the Rockies’ cleanup hitter. Cron leads the Rockies with 22 home runs, 70 RBI, and 105 hits. Showing his power, 16 of his 22 home runs have come at Coors Field, where he also has a .321 ISO and a .446 wOBA.

Last in this stack is second baseman Brendan Rodgers, who also has a career-best 17.3% strikeout rate in his fourth year with the Rockies. Rodgers also has a statcast career-best 44.9% hard-hit rate and nine home runs this season. His barrel percentage and exit velocity are also career-highs.

The Rockies will draw a home matchup against Michael Kopech, who has allowed eight home runs in his last five starts and 20 earned runs in 31 innings pitched. This will be his outing at Coors Field in his career, so it’s hard to envision him bouncing back on Tuesday.

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.

Start Your PRO Trial Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models

Data-driven analysis & tutorials

Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value

Bobby Dalbec ($2,500): First Baseman/Third Baseman, Boston Red Sox

Bobby Dalbec leads THE BAT in terms of projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings. After an incredible first two seasons in the league, Dalbec’s ISO has come down to .144 and his wOBA to .279. However, he has still shown upside occasionally, so getting him in a good matchup like tonight is key. The Guardians are projected to start Bryan Shaw for his first start in his career.

Having your first start on the road at Fenway Park feels like a tall task, especially when Shaw has struggled out of the bullpen. Shaw has appeared in 39 games this season and has a 5.29 ERA and a career-worst 1.85 HR/9. This may be a good time for Dalbec to find the power that he’s displayed the past two seasons. The Red Sox are implied for 5.6 runs in this matchup as they look to get back on track after losing three of their last four. This feels like a fantastic matchup to take the savings with Dalbec.


MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value

Max Muncy ($2,400): Second Baseman/Third Baseman, Los Angeles Dodgers

Max Muncy continues to be a great value on FanDuel. Having dual eligibility only helps his case as Muncy comes in with a 93% Bargain Rating on Tuesday. The Dodgers not only have a commanding lead in the NL West, but they’ve also won 19 of their last 22 games. Muncy has struggled a bit by his standards — he owns a .148 ISO and .286 wOBA — but his hard-hit rate is above 40% for the fifth-straight year.

Muncy finds himself in a great situation projected to bat No. 6 for the Dodgers, whose implied team total of 5.7 runs is tied for the second-highest on the slate. The Nationals will send out Josiah Gray, who spent a few years with the Dodgers. He leads the Nationals in wins and strikeouts and has a 4.40 ERA. The downside for Gray is the long ball, as he has a 2.04 HR/9. In his lone matchup against the Dodgers this season, Gray allowed seven earned runs and three home runs in only three innings pitched. This is a great spot for Muncy to get ahold of one.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Shane McClanahan ($10,300 DraftKings, $11,600 FanDuel) at Baltimore Orioles

Looking at the ownership among pitchers on this slate, no one stands out as the clear top option. With the Orioles implied for a slate-low 3.2 runs tonight, Shane McClanahan seems like the best choice. He leads the entire league with a 1.71 ERA and has an extremely impressive 35.7% strikeout rate. Those numbers are tough to beat, even with McClanahan being the highest-priced pitcher on the slate.

Not only are the Orioles implied for only 3.2 runs, but they also have a top-10 team strikeout rate. McClanahan has averaged 27.1 DraftKings points per game, and he has only finished below 20 points once all season. McClanahan is very safe but also has enormous upside in this matchup.


Hitter

Jose Ramirez ($5,800 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) at Boston Red Sox

Once again, the highest ceiling batter in THE BAT is Guardians superstar Jose Ramirez. His numbers have fallen slightly recently, but Ramirez still has a .280 ISO and .391 wOBA. One of the best parts about Ramirez is he simply doesn’t strike out. His 9.9% strikeout rate is the lowest mark of in his career and stands out as a clear outlier in 2022.

Ramirez draws a matchup Tuesday against rookie Josh Winckowski, who owns a 4.38 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP through seven career starts. His 16.3% strikeout rate also should not strike fear in the heart of Ramirez.

The young right-hander has also struggled with pitching at Fenway Park. Winckowski has allowed a 5.49 ERA and .371 wOBA at home this season, compared to a 3.12 and .269 on the road.

Get Your First Deposit Matched Up to $100!

Sign up and deposit up to $100

Your deposit will be fully matched

New users only

Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections in our stacking tool comes from the Colorado Rockies. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.

The Rockies are grading out as the best stack according to THE BAT for this 13-game slate. It is a little odd seeing the home-team Rockies come in with the top stack — that designation usually goes to the road team — but that should work in our favor. Only one player in this stack has a projected ownership above 10%, making them an ideal team to target in tournaments.

They rank seventh in the league in scoring and wOBA, and the Rockies’ implied team total of 5.6 runs is tied for the third-highest mark on the slate.

Connor Joe will lead off for the Rockies and is the cheapest player in this stack. Joe has struggled recently but still leads the Rockies in on-base percentage and is tied for the team lead in stolen bases. Having a dual-threat hitter at the top of the order provides a lot of upside.

In his first season with the Rockies, Kris Bryant has been very impressive with a career-best 13.9% strikeout rate paired with a .367 wOBA and a .179 ISO. He only has 158 at-bats this season, so we haven’t seen the true upside with Bryant playing at Coors Field. He leads this stack with 10.06 projected points.

We go from first-time Rockies outfielder to the 12-year veteran Charlie Blackmon, who has at least one hit in 11 of his last 12 games. Blackmon has an impressive .198 ISO and is second on the team in home runs with 15. He is as consistent as they come and is the only batter in this stack with the platoon advantage.

Power-hitter C.J. Cron will serve as the Rockies’ cleanup hitter. Cron leads the Rockies with 22 home runs, 70 RBI, and 105 hits. Showing his power, 16 of his 22 home runs have come at Coors Field, where he also has a .321 ISO and a .446 wOBA.

Last in this stack is second baseman Brendan Rodgers, who also has a career-best 17.3% strikeout rate in his fourth year with the Rockies. Rodgers also has a statcast career-best 44.9% hard-hit rate and nine home runs this season. His barrel percentage and exit velocity are also career-highs.

The Rockies will draw a home matchup against Michael Kopech, who has allowed eight home runs in his last five starts and 20 earned runs in 31 innings pitched. This will be his outing at Coors Field in his career, so it’s hard to envision him bouncing back on Tuesday.