The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Alex Kirilloff ($2,200): First Baseman, Minnesota Twins
With an 85 Team Value Rating, the Twins will be a popular secondary stack for tonight’s 11-game slate. Hitting clean-up for the Twins is first baseman Alex Kirilloff who is a fantastic value. At $2,200, Kirilloff has a 99% Bargain Rating and the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate on THE BAT X projections. Not only is Kirilloff too cheap, but he is also swinging a hot bat with a home run in three of his last five games. During that time, Kirilloff is batting .381 with nine RBIs.
The Twins are implied for 4.6 runs against White Sox right-hander Lance Lynn. Through 19 starts, the veteran has posted a career-high 6.06 ERA and 1.99 HR/9. 17 of his 24 home runs allowed this season have come against left-handed batters, who also have a slugging percentage of .649. Kirilloff gets the platoon advantage and is a salary saver for all lineup builds.
Eugenio Suarez ($2,800): Third Baseman, Seattle Mariners
Another value infielder who is swinging a hot bat is Mariners third baseman, Eugenio Suarez. Over the last four games, Suarez has three home runs and is averaging 16.3 DraftKings points per game. Suarez is projected to bat third for the Mariners and is the only batter on the team with five or more Pro Trends. Currently projected for around 10% ownership, Suarez will be a popular value play tonight. He has recorded five-straight seasons with above a 12% barrel percentage.
Suarez will get the platoon advantage against Blue Jays southpaw Yusei Kikuchi who has allowed above a 2.0 HR/9 in back-to-back seasons. Kikuchi’s statcast numbers show a weakness to right-handed batters, which bodes well for Suarez, who has a career-high 46.2% hard-hit rate this season, and those numbers rise significantly against southpaw pitchers.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Shohei Ohtani ($11,000 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Not only is Shohei Ohtani leading the league in several hitting statistics, but he has also been an elite pitcher this season. Ohtani has a 32.2% strikeout rate this year and has allowed a single-digit barrel percentage every year that he has been in the league. He has allowed nine earned runs in his last two starts but is in a great bounceback spot against a very poor Pirates offense. The Pirates have scored the fourth-fewest amount of runs this year and have a .236 team batting average.
Ohtani leads all pitchers on DraftKings with the highest ceiling in both THE BAT X and our in-house projections. He is also projected for the most strikeouts on the slate with 7.66. The Pirates are implied for only 3.6 runs, as Ohtani is a massive -196 favorite.
There are a few other expensive pitchers to pay up for, but Ohtani has a great matchup with a high ceiling.
Hitter
Corbin Carroll ($5,800 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) at Cincinnati Reds
Corbin Carroll has been arguably the biggest surprise of the year as he has made a massive leap from his rookie season. Carroll is batting .283 this year with a .256 ISO and a .383 wOBA. In two of his last three games, Carroll has scored 23 and 33 DraftKings points. A big reason for that scoring outburst is he has three stolen bases over that time, proving his versatility.
Carroll is third in the league for stolen bases and will get the platoon advantage against Reds right-hander Ben Lively. After leaving his last start due to cramping, Lively is expected to start tonight as the Diamondbacks have a 5.2 implied run total. Carroll should be able to take advantage of Lively’s 1.78 HR/9, even if his barrel percentage allowed is only 8.6% this year.
Against right-handed pitching this season, Carroll’s numbers skyrocket to a .308 ISO and a .418 wOBA (via PlateIQ):
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Framber Valdez ($10,800 DraftKings, $11,200 FanDuel) at Oakland Athletics
Right behind Ohtani is projected ownership and projected strikeouts is Astros left-hander Framber Valdez. It has been an incredible year thus far for Valdez, who has a 2.76 ERA and a career-high 27.4% strikeout rate, and a 1.07 WHIP. Valdez has continued his excellence in keeping the ball in the yard with a 0.69 HR/9. He should be able to add on to his great numbers against the Athletics, who rank 23rd in home runs hit and last in runs scored. This is a superb matchup for Valdez tonight.
Valdez is coming off a season-high 13-strikeout game against the Angels. It was the second time all season that he threw over 100 pitches in back-to-back starts. Even if he doesn’t reach that triple-digit plateau tonight, Valdez should be able to mow down this Athletics lineup that has a 25% strikeout rate, which ranks as the third-highest in the league.
Hitters
Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6,600 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel) at Milwaukee Brewers
The most popular hitter on the slate is none other than Ronald Acuna Jr. Despite being the most expensive batter, Acuna Jr. rarely has a bad game, given his dual-threat ability. He leads the league with 44 stolen bases and ranks inside the top 10 in home runs with 23. Putting up career numbers across the board, Acuna Jr.’s most impressive feat is probably reducing his strikeout rate from 23.6% last season to 11.7% this season. Acuna Jr. putting the ball in play more often is scary for pitchers.
Freddy Peralta will start for the Brewers tonight, and keeping the ball in the yard has not been his strong suit. Peralta has a 1.47 HR/9 and has given up at least one long ball in 12 of his last 16 starts. His 1.26 WHIP is also the second-worst of his career. Acuna Jr. is matchup-proof, and even though the Braves are only projected for 4.7 runs, he is in a really good spot.
