The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Brady Singer ($7,400): Pitcher, Kansas City Royals
The former Florida Gator has not had much to sing about this season, with a 7-8 record and 5.10 ERA on the year. The model, however, likes Brady Singer as a contrarian bargain play on today’s slate.
PlateIQ shows the matchup for Singer will not be easy today. The Red Sox have five High ISO and six high wOBA hitters in the lineup. Singer does induce a 49.5% ground ball rate and a relatively low .323 BABIP.
Singer does have three straight 20+ DraftKings point performances and is middle of the pack on the salary chart. He is an interesting proposition for fantasy owners to consider today if you want a GPP dart throw.
Daniel Vogelbach ($2,100): Designated Hitter, New York Mets
The model likes veteran Daniel Vogelbach as a low-budget bargain play on today’s slate against the Cubs. On the season, Vogelbach is batting .224/.325/.363 with seven home runs and 30 RBI in 201 at-bats.
Vogelbach exclusively bats against right-handers and brings a .309 wOBA to the plate in those matchups. For tournament lineups, he is a dart throw option to produce a double-digit fantasy performance.
The Mets have a strong matchup against Jameson Taillon of the Cubs today. Taillon is 6-6 with a 5.36 ERA on the season and is allowing the highest wOBA of his career (.342).
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Max Scherzer ($10,800 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel) at Oakland Athletics
One of the best pitchers in the game gets the best matchup in the league today in Oakland. Making his second start for his new Texas Rangers team, Max Scherzer faces the Athletics today in one of the best pitcher’s ballparks in the game.
Scherzer comes in with a 9-4 record and a 4.01 ERA. He went six innings in his Rangers debut on August 3, giving up three runs and striking out nine.
The Athletics have the lowest implied run total on the slate today. They have an average 24.2 K% and .140 ISO in today’s projected lineup. All systems go for Scherzer having a stud fantasy performance today.
Hitter
Bryce Harper ($5,600 DraftKings, $3,200 FanDuel) vs. Washington Nationals
The power numbers have taken a step back this season for Bryce Harper, but he continues to be a highly productive hitter for the Phillies with daily upside.
Since his first game of the season on May 2, Harper is batting .300/.388/.428 with 6 home runs and 35 RBI. His .355 wOBA and 44.1 hard hit % are his lowest since at least 2017. That said, Harper has four multi-hit games in his last six, and the model gives him one of the highest ceilings on the slate today.
He will face right-hander Josiah Gray of his former Nationals squad. Gray is 7-9 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. He gave up the most home runs in the National League last season and has already allowed 15 in 2023.
Note: Harper is on the Turbo slate today.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Framber Valdez ($11,000 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel) at Baltimore Orioles
Framber Valdez scored over 47 DraftKings points en route to his first no-hitter on August 1. That start elevated his salary to the $11,000 elite threshold, but Valdez may just be worth the price tag today.
On the year, Valdez is 9-7 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.07 WHIP for the Astros. He is in the top 10 of American League pitchers with 141 strikeouts and goes deep in games with an average 96.09 pitches per game.
Valdez showed ceiling potential even before his no-hitter. He had two 40-point DraftKings games earlier in the season and has a +1.77 Plus/Minus overall on the year. The Orioles have a very low home run projection today to spoil his chances at a solid performance.
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Hitters
Jarren Duran ($4,500 DraftKings, $3,200 FanDuel) vs. Kansas City Royals
Jarren Duran is having, by far, his best season in the major leagues. In his third big league season, Duran is batting .307/.356/.505 with 8 home runs and 39 RBI.
Utilizing his speed and base running, Duran is second in the American League with 32 doubles and seventh with 23 stolen bases. He excels against right-handed pitching with a .337 wOBA and .160 ISO.
The Red Sox get a right-hander on the mound today in Brady Singer for the Royals. Singer is 7-8 with a 5.10 ERA and 1.39 ERA in 22 starts this season.
Christian Yelich ($5,100 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel) vs. Colorado Rockies
The model continues to push Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich toward the top of the projections and for good reason. Yelich is in the top 10% of hitters with a .367 wOBA, 51.5 hard hit %, and 92.4 average exit velocity.
Yelich has 16 home runs and 63 RBI to go with his .290/.376/.473 overall batting numbers in 2023. He has seven double-digit DraftKings point results in his last 14 games and a +3.61 Plus/Minus over the last month of the season.
The Brewers face Kyle Freeland today of the Rockies. Freeland has struggled to a 4-12 record and 4.86 ERA in 21 starts.
Away from Coors Field, Freeland is actually worse with a 1-8 mark and 5.33 ERA.
