The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Jordan Diaz ($2,600): First/Third Base, Oakland Athletics
It’s not every day that an Oakland Athletics player emerges as a top fantasy threat. But it’s also not every day that Jordan Diaz gets to face a left-hander. Diaz projects as a top value in tonight’s main slate.
The hard-hitting right-handed batter burst back onto the scene at the start of July. Since then, Diaz has raised his slugging percentage to a season-best .727 to start the month and is poised for another big outing on Thursday. As expected, his underlying metrics validate the success at the plate. Diaz has a top-end 49.0% hard-hit rate, lending itself to his above-average .423 expected slugging percentage. That power has been on full display lately, with the 22-year-old delivering 11 hits, two doubles, and two homers over his last 38 at-bats.
The Athletics deploy Diaz against lefties most frequently. Considering Urias’ underwhelming metrics, Diaz could be in for a season-best performance. The Dodgers’ southpaw ranks in the bottom third of the majors in barrel rate and expected slugging percentage, opening the door for a standout effort from Diaz.
Donovan Solano ($2,700): First/Third Base, Minnesota Twins
The Twins can’t get out of their own way. Despite every other team in the AL Central mailing it in, they are still barely hanging onto a playoff berth. They need more production from the top of their lineup if they want to make a sincere run at the postseason.
Solano is one player that needs to deliver more consistent at-bats for the Twinkies. Thankfully, the metrics support that Solano is due for increased production at the dish. The 35-year-old has been mired in a slump lately but is showing signs of snapping out of it. Solano recorded just two hits across a 13-game sample from July 15 to July 28. Since then, the Twins’ first baseman has tallied a base hit in three straight, correcting course after an inferior stretch.
That pendulum should continue swinging in a positive direction for Solano. He remains below his expected slugging percentage, maintaining his top-tier sweet spot contact rate and ideal launch angle. Solano ranks near the top of the Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary categories in our aggregate projections.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Shohei Ohtani ($11,000 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel) vs. Seattle Mariners
There’s never a bad time to roster Ohtani. The presumptive MVP has been unflappable on the mound this season, compiling a 9-5 record and 3.43 ERA, with an 11.6 K/9 rate and a paltry 1.07 WHIP. Those stats should look even better when he’s done getting through the Seattle Mariners.
Ohtani is coming off his best start as a major league pitcher. The Japanese national tossed a complete game shutout last time out, allowing just one hit and three walks en route to the win. Most impressively, Ohtani struck out eight in the contest, making it 24 total across his last three outings.
Considering his six-pitch repertoire and elite strikeout metrics, we’re anticipating more of the same. Ohtani ranks in the 83rd percentile in whiff rate, inducing a 36.9% swing-and-miss rate or better on three of his pitches. Further, the Mariners have been one of the most underwhelming teams at the plate this season, putting together the ninth-worst OPS and second-most punchouts.
Ohtani has reserved his best efforts for at home. The soon-to-be two-time MVP has a sparkling 12.4 K/9 rate, with a superior ERA, WHIP, and opponent’s batting average at Angels Stadium. He will flaunt that upside again in tonight’s AL West battle.
Hitter
Aaron Judge ($6,300 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) vs. Houston Astros
Injuries have prevented Judge from re-capturing his MVP stats from last year, but they haven’t stopped him from maintaining his elite hitting profile. Judge continues to rank in the upper echelon of MLB hitters and is due for a breakout performance.
Judge returned to action at the end of July, immediately re-integrating himself at the top of the Yankees lineup. The former MVP went yard in his second game back, but that has been his only extra-base hit since returning. Nevertheless, his analytics support that many more long fly balls are forthcoming.
The Yankees’ slugger ranks in the 100th percentile in barrel and hard-hit rate, expected slugging percentage, and expected weighted on-base average. With his pristine 20.4-degree launch angle, Judge should be blasting pitches into outer space.
His PlateIQ profile paints an even rosier pitcher. Judge has an insane .431 ISO and .493 wOBA against righties, highlighting his assertiveness at the plate.
The Houston Astros are sacrificing Cristian Javier in the series opener. Judge and his Yankees teammates have been mashing the ball lately, and Javier ranks in the 18th percentile or worse in expected slugging percentage and hard-hit rate. Surely, a few fans will leave with a souvenir, some courtesy of Judge.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Mitch Keller ($9,100 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Earlier this season, Keller emerged as one of the centerpieces in the Pittsburgh Pirates renaissance. The 27-year-old tossed a complete game shutout, punctuating an exceptional month of May. Keller hasn’t sustained that form, but there’s every reason to believe he excels on Thursday night.
The Pirates’ ace has decreased his 4-seamer usage, relying more on his sinker and cutter to keep batters off-balance at the plate. The results have been inspiring, as Keller has posted career-best metrics across the board. The former second-round pick has the best K/9 rate and FIP since tossing 48.0 innings in his rookie campaign in 2019. Moreover, Keller has already set a career-high in wins and is well on his way to surpassing the 159.0 innings he pitched last year.
Keller’s success is grounded analytically, and he gets to pick on an inferior Milwaukee Brewers squad. The Brew Crew rank in the bottom ten in OPS and strikeouts, assuring Keller reaches his fantasy ceiling on the main slate.
Keller also stands out using our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:
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Hitters
Kyle Tucker ($5,700 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) vs. New York Yankees
Everyone knows the best way to fight fire is with fire. That mentality will serve the Astros well as they try to keep pace with the Yankees in tonight’s American League showdown. Tucker has been Houston’s secret weapon of late, and he projects as an elite fantasy option against Clarke Schmidt.
Tucker had a glorious month of July. The former fifth-overall selection ended the month with an eye-popping 1.119 OPS, sending 15 of his 33 hits for extra bases. He’s off to a more tepid start this month, but he still remains a progression candidate. After that torrid stretch, Tucker brought his season-long slugging percentage up to .508, a few notches below his expected value of .528. That means we should expect more power from Tucker over the coming weeks.
Like Javier, Schmidt doesn’t possess elite analytics. The Yankees’ pitcher ranks in the 33rd percentile in barrel rate, moving up one percentile in expected slugging percentage. In tandem with the home run-friendly venue that is Yankee Stadium, Tucker should continue his upward trend in the Bronx.
Will Smith ($5,600 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) vs. Oakland Athletics
Smith has asserted himself as one of the top catchers in the bigs. He rates as one of the best offensive catchers in the game, and although his framing could use some work, he has solid defensive metrics. More importantly, we can look past those defensive shortcomings, rostering him on tonight’s docket against the A’s.
Nearly half of Smith’s hits over his recent sample have gone for extra bags. Seven of his last 16 hits have yielded a double, raising Smith’s slugging percentage to .468. Additionally, Smith is a mainstay in the heart of the Dodgers’ lineup, meaning the power stroke has positively impacted run production. Across that same sample, Smith has driven in six while coming around to score ten more.
Smith leads our catcher rankings and is firmly placed among the best hitters available on Thursday night. We like him to build off last night’s performance and live up to his elite projections.
