The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Jon Gray ($6,700): Pitcher, Texas Rangers
At the top of the model’s bargain ratings on the slate is veteran right-hander Jon Gray. He is 8-6 with a 3.52 ERA for a surprising Rangers squad making noise in the American League.
Gray has been strong over his last two starts, allowing just one earned run in 14 total innings. His 20.5 K% caps his ceiling a bit, but he does have three 30+ DraftKings point performances on the season.
PlateIQ shows some strength in the Diamondbacks lineup today with a team .325 wOBA and .166 ISO. Arizona has six High ISO and seven High wOBA hitters slated to face Gray. Expect relatively low ownership in GPPs for a bargain option today against a solid opposing lineup.
Michael A. Taylor ($2,400): Outfielder, Minnesota Twins
The season-long totals for Michael A. Taylor are not eye-popping, but he has been solid over the last week and could provide a low-end bargain value today against the Brewers.
Taylor is batting .222/.274/.424 overall in 2023 with 16 home runs and 39 RBI. His 34.3% strikeout rate has made it tough this season to find consistency at the plate, but his .309 xwOBA is still slightly above his career marks.
Over his last 10 games, Taylor has a +1.83 Plus/Minus with four straight positive Plus/Minus results. He faces Wade Miley today for the Brewers with a 6-3 record and 3.05 ERA.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Lucas Giolito ($9,100 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Despite the fifth-highest pitching salary on the slate, Lucas Giolito tops the ceiling projections today against the Reds.
On the season, Giolito is 6-6 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 21 starts. He has a decent 24.9 K% and consistently works deep in games with a 96.28 average pitches per start this year.
The Reds have one of the lower implied run totals on the slate today. Giolito has nine 20+ DraftKings point performances in 2023.
This could be a good spot for number 10 against Cincinnati.
Hitter
Shohei Ohtani ($6,500 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) vs. Cincinnati Reds
The presumptive American League MVP, Shohei Ohtani, is putting together one of the special seasons in baseball history with his success both on the mound and at the plate.
Ohtani sits in the top 1% of hitters with a .437 wOBA and .648 xSLG. Overall, he is batting .306/.407/.664 with 43 home runs and 89 RBI.
Over his last four games, Ohtani has two home runs and six hits to tally a pair of 20+ DraftKings point totals without taking the mound. Today, the Angels face Cincinnati righty, Graham Ashcraft. Ashcraft is 6-8 with a 4.89 ERA in his sophomore campaign.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Blake Snell ($10,700 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel) vs. Miami Marlins
Blake Snell is having one of the better seasons in his eight-year big league career. His 2.65 ERA is well below his 3.30 career average to go with a 10-8 record.
He generates fantasy potential with a 31.0 K% that falls in the top-8% of major league pitchers but also allows too many free passes with a 13.7% walk rate.
San Diego is a difficult hitters park, and the Marlins lineup features a relatively low .148 ISO. This is a good spot for Snell to live up to his elevated salary.
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Hitters
Michael Harris II ($4,700 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) vs. New York Mets
Sometimes overshadowed by superstar Ronald Acuna Jr., a number of other Atlanta Braves continue to have impressive 2023 campaigns. Michael Harris II has been solid in his second big league season, batting .286/.334/.453 with 11 home runs and 17 stolen bases.
Since August 1, Harris II has eight double-digit DraftKings performances, including four high ceiling results over 20 points. His .288 xBA lands in the top-7% of big league hitters.
Harris II has a .347 wOBA and .183 ISO against right-handers and will face righty Tylor Megill today in Atlanta. Megill is 7-6 with a 5.53 ERA in 18 starts this season.
Ji Hwan Bae ($2,700 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Ji Hwan Bae returned to the Pirates lineup on August 18 after some time on the injured list. He has two extra-base hits in his first three games and has a great matchup today against the Cardinals.
Bae is batting .240/.308/.316 on the season with just two home runs in 253 plate appearances. The ceiling is not massive, but he certainly has the capacity to make good on his $2,700 DraftKings salary.
The Pirates face Cardinals mainstay Adam Wainwright on the mound. Wainwright has struggled to a 3-8 record and 8.42 ERA in 16 starts this season. This is a matchup for the Pirates and fantasy players to take advantage.
