This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s daily fantasy slate.
Michael Foltynewicz: Pitcher, Braves
Foltynewicz is putting together an excellent season for the Braves, owning a 2.14 ERA and 10.50 K/9 through his first 15 starts. He enters today’s contest in elite recent form as well, limiting his most recent opponent to an average distance of 160 feet, 88 miles per hour, and 25% hard hit rate. Most of that success stemmed from a ground ball rate of 75%, and batters with comparable recent Statcast data and strikeout ability have historically been awesome values on DraftKings (per the Trends tool):
He’s also been priced down to $10,000 for today’s start vs the Cardinals, which represents a decrease of $1,800 over the past month. Foltynewicz is a slight +102 underdog, but that could decrease his ownership for guaranteed prize pools. On a slate with limited pitching talent, he stands out.
Rougned Odor: Second Base, Rangers
The Rangers will likely be one of the most popular team targets on today’s slate. They have an exploitable matchup vs White Sox right-hander Reynaldo Lopez, who has posted a K/9 of just 6.41 through his first 16 starts. He has managed an ERA of 3.73, but his xFIP of 5.55 suggests he’s been far worse than his traditional numbers suggest. He could be due for some regression, which might start on today’s slate. The Rangers lead all teams with an implied team total of 5.7 runs:
One batter who stands out for the Rangers is Odor. He’s smoked the baseball recently, resulting in 15-day/12-month distance, exit velocity, and hard hit differentials of +23 feet, +4 miles per hour, and +13 percentage points. Historically, pitchers with comparable implied team totals and Statcast differentials have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.98 on FanDuel, where Odor has a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Tim Anderson: Shortstop, White Sox
Anderson has been swinging the bat well recently, and the high stakes players have taken notice: He owned one of the highest Volatility Ratings on Saturday, per the DFS Ownership Dashboard:
He’s posted elite 15-day/12-month differentials in distance, exit velocity, and hard hit rate, and he’s expected to occupy the leadoff spot in the lineup against Rangers’ left-hander Cole Hamels. Anderson has fared significantly better against southpaws than righties over the past 12 months, posting a .325 wOBA and .194 ISO. Hamels has fared well this season, owning a 3.61 ERA through his first 16 starts, but that belies some concerning advanced metrics. His FIP of 5.21 is significantly higher than his traditional ERA, and only Jason Hammel has allowed a worse hard-hit percentage among 89 qualified starters.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Mike Foltynewicz
Photo credit: Jason Getz-USA Today Sports
