The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Matthew Boyd ($8,300) Chicago Cubs (-360) vs. Colorado Rockies
Matthew Boyd is a bit cheaper than our typical options at the top, but he has a commanding lead in median, ceiling, and Pts/Sal projection for Wednesday’s evening slate.
As has been the case this week, that’s mostly due to the matchup. The Cubs series against the Rockies has been a boon for their pitching staff, with Colorado scoring just three regular innings runs across the first two games. They’re the worst offense in baseball by a comfortable margin — and somehow about 15% worse against lefties.
Plus, Boyd is putting up solid numbers of his own. He has a 3.42 ERA and a 23.7% strikeout rate through 10 starts this season. The Rockies should help him improve on that latter number as well. Their 27.7% strikeout rate against southpaws is the second highest in the majors.
Considering his low salary and elite Vegas data, it’s hard to see a reason not to play Boyd tonight.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Clarke Schmidt ($7,700) New York Yankees (-158) at Los Angeles Angels
The only arm with a Pts/Sal projection approaching that of Boyd’s is the Yankees’ Clarke Schmidt. While he doesn’t have the elite Vegas data of Boyd, he also has an extremely strong matchup — at least in terms of upside.
The Angels are the only team that strikes out at a higher rate than the Rockies, with a 26.9% mark against righties. They’re a roughly average overall offense so they’re capable of putting up runs, but that can easily be outweighed in DFS by strikeouts.
Schmidt has a solid 24.2% strikeout rate, and his 12.5% swinging strike rate suggests he’s been a bit unlucky. As does his 3.35 xERA — which is more than a full run lower than his 4.58 ERA. This is a weak enough matchup that he should be able to push his actual numbers closer to his predicted marks tonight.
More importantly, he’s priced under $8,000. We don’t need a massive score to justify that salary, so even if he gives up some runs, we’ll probably be fine. He’s a solid play for all contest types.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Hunter Greene ($9,000) Cincinnati Reds (-119) at Kansas City Royals
Greene was briefly a top two or three NL Cy Young candidate before a brief stint on the IL and some early exits hurt his case. He’s now set to make his second start since returning, with his first outing lasting just four innings against the Cubs.
The second start back feels like an ideal buy-low time, especially considering his first matchup was against the Cubs. He held them to just two runs over four innings, despite the game being in Cincinnati. Tonight he gets a much better matchup with the Royals and a slight park upgrade going to Kansas City. Plus, the weather in KC should cut scoring a bit, according to Weather Edge.
Greene has massive upside, thanks to a 32.6% strikeout rate that would be fourth among qualified starters had he not missed time. He’s also got his ERA down to an excellent 2.54, despite home starts at one of the best parks for hitters.
However, there’s some risk that he’s still operating on a limited pitch count as he works his way back to full strength. Considering his price premium over the other options, that could make it hard for him to find the winning lineup. With that said, that should also suppress his ownership, making him a solid GPP pivot.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Chicago Cubs:
There are three teams with implied totals right around five runs tonight, though the Cubs are the only team technically over that mark. They’ve been a top-five lineup in baseball against right-handed pitching this season and have a winnable matchup with Tanner Gordon ($6,500) of the Rockies.
Gordon has just under 50 innings of big league experience, with a 7.52 ERA across those outings. While some of that is due to home games at Coors Field, his 5.41 FIP (fielding independent pitching) isn’t exactly strong either.
The value at pitcher also makes it possible to find the salary for the Cubs stack, while pairing them with Boyd bakes in some nice correlation.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Aaron Judge OF ($6,600) New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels (Yusei Kikuchi)
The Yankees have another matchup against a lefty pitcher. They hit lefties better than any team in baseball, with much of that driven by two specific players.
One of them is pretty obvious, as we see in PlateIQ:
While we could make a case for Judge every day, the combination of matchup and value pitchers makes him especially appealing tonight. This game is also the only one on the slate with a positive weather impact for overall scoring, so I definitely want some exposure.
JP Crawford SS ($3,500) Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals (Trevor Williams)
Crawford is too cheap at $3,500 for his leadoff spot in the Mariners lineup, at least on a night where their team total is just under five runs. Crawford has been just okay as a fantasy asset, hitting .261 with four homers and three steals. The strong Mariners lineup behind him helps him to score runs, though, as well as see good pitches to hit.
Plus, Trevor Williams ($6,200) has allowed lefties to hit .379 against him this season. While his career numbers aren’t quite as bad, he’s consistently had a harder time against left-handed bats. For that reason, I’m interested in stacking the Mariners while attempting to get as many of their left-handed or switch-hitting bats as possible.
Wyatt Langford OF ($4,900) Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Eric Lauer)
The Rangers are likely to go a bit overlooked tonight, as their 4.6-run implied total is a bit behind the best teams on the slate. However, they could be worth it, with a solid matchup against Eric Lauer ($6,000).
While Lauer has a 3.31 ERA, he’s split time between starting and the bullpen. As a starter, his ERA is just under 5.00. Plus, he’s a lefty, and Langford’s career OPS is about 150 points higher against lefties than righties.
He has the most obvious platoon split advantage tonight, but I’m interested in getting some Rangers exposure in general with the solid matchup.
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Pictured: Matthew Boyd
Photo Credit: Imagn
