The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Garret Crochet ($10,500) Boston Red Sox (-145) vs New York Mets
Pitching is interesting on Wednesday’s evening slate, with the two best pitchers both facing tough matchups. Crochet is one of those, bringing an excellent 2.00 ERA and 29.1% strikeout rate into his matchup against the Mets.
New York has a top-ten offense in baseball on the season, both overall and against lefties like Crochet. That clearly lowers the chances of Crochet living up to his 23.6 PPG DraftKings average, as this is one of the tougher matchups he’s faced. However, Vegas is cautiously optimistic, giving the Mets a moderate 3.8-run total and installing the Red Sox as favorites.
That’s a fairly good sign that Crochet is likely to have at least some success here, even if he’s not his usual dominant self. He’s the only pitcher on the slate projected for more than 20 points, so he could lead the slate even in a below-average (by his standards) performance.
The price tag is a lot, though, making Crochet a solid play but not a great one. We don’t have a ton of better options so I’ll likely still play him, but I’d love a bit of a discount based on the matchup.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
JP Sears ($7,400) Athletics (-173) vs. Los Angeles Angels
At the other end of the ability/matchup spectrum resides the A’s JP Sears. Sears is nothing special, with a solid 3.31 ERA but higher underlying numbers, as well as a sub-20% strikeout rate on the season.
However, he has one of, if not the, best matchups on the board today. The Angels are absolutely terrible against lefties, with a wRC+ as a team of 59. That means they’re more than 40% below league average against southpaws and just two points away from the worst mark in the majors.
Equally important for DFS, their 28% strikeout rate is also the second highest against left-handed pitching. While that’s not enough that we can project Sears for double-digit Ks, it does give him a solid boost in terms of upside.
I’m considerably more enthusiastic about Sears than our projections, but at a minimum he’s an intriguing GPP option. The price point is a bit high considering he was $7,400 in his last start — where he “scored” in the negatives — but I’m willing to take a shot on a bounce-back game.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Jacob deGrom ($10,000) Texas Rangers (-105) at New York Yankees
That the 25-24 Rangers have roughly pick ’em odds against the AL East-leading Yankees is a testament to deGrom. The former Mets star has revitalized his career this season, already throwing more innings for the Rangers than in each of the last two years combined.
Beyond just being healthy, he’s also been very effective. He has a 2.29 ERA, with slightly higher but still strong underlying numbers. While his 26.6% strikeout rate is a bit low by his standards, his 14.7% swinging strike rate points to some positive regression there.
The bad news is he’s facing the Yankees. They’re the best offense in baseball against right-handed pitching and don’t strike out at an especially high rate. Plus it’s in New York, where the short porch in right field leads to some cheeky home runs.
The weather should be a big boost to pitchers, though, with temperatures in the 50s and wind blowing in. Keep an eye on the report closer to game time, though, as there’s some slight risk of a rainout. If it plays, deGrom is a strong option. He’s tied for the lead in Pts/Sal with Crochet, who is the only pitcher ahead of him in median and ceiling projections.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies:
I’m not sure if I’m going to be able to stack the Phillies tonight, but I’d certainly like to. Philadelphia has a massive seven-run implied total tonight for the finale of their series at Coors Field.
They’ve scored 16 runs across the first two games of the series and are now facing Carson Palmquist ($5,000), a rookie lefty who allowed five runs across four innings in his MLB debut last week.
Philly is technically on the wrong side of their platoon splits against southpaws, but it probably doesn’t matter here. Odds are, they see more at-bats against the Rockies bullpen than Palmquist anyways.
The nearly $30,000 price tag and lack of cheap pitchers make it almost impossible to fit the full stack, but I want as much exposure to them as possible.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Wyatt Langford OF ($5,100) Texas Rangers at New York Yankees (Ryan Yarbrough)
Rangers sophomore Wyatt Langford has a rare mix of power and speed, with nine home runs and nine stolen bases this season. The former top-five pick got elite grades in both categories in his prospects report and has mostly lived up to the hype.
While he has similar batting averages against both lefties and righties, the power comes out much more against southpaws, as we see in PlateIQ:
That ISO mark is nearly double his .152 number against righties, which is good news for tonight’s matchup. He’s a high-upside play.
Lawrence Butler OF ($4,300) Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels (Jack Kochanowicz)
We highlighted the A’s yesterday as a potential stack, thanks to their reasonable price tags at home against the Angels. Their temporary stadium in Sacramento has been great for bats this season, and the forecast for tonight is temperatures in the 80s with a mild breeze blowing out.
All of which makes this another great spot for them, and is reflected in their 6.1-run total. Butler is set to leadoff the A’s lineup, making him a great value at $4,300. I’m interested in a full stack, though, which is nearly $8,000 cheaper than the Phillies equivalent despite the team total being within a run.
Stacking the A’s also correlates nicely with starting pitcher JP Sears.
Bo Bichette SS ($3,900) Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres (Randy Vasquez)
The Blue Jays are facing Randy Vasquez ($5,500), who comes into the game with an extreme split between his actual and predicted stats. His 3.45 ERA is more than two runs lower than his 5.58 xERA, with all of his underlying numbers in the fives.
Sometimes that’s just luck or variance, but in Vasquez’s case it’s likely due to his home ballpark. Petco Park is one of the two or three best pitchers parks in baseball, and has probably saved him a fair amount of runs.
For that reason, I’m interested in stacking the Blue Jays. Their 5.1-run total is third on the slate, and leadoff hitter Bo Bichette is fairly cheap. He’s hitting .286 this year and should have plenty of run-scoring opportunities with the bats behind him.
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Pictured: Garrett Crochet
Photo Credit: Imagn
