The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($10,500) Los Angeles Dodgers (-285) vs. Athletics
While yesterday gave us a handful of solid pitching options in good matchups, Tuesday’s evening slate is a bit trickier. The best pitcher on the board is pretty easily Yamamoto, who has a 2.60 ERA and 29% strikeout rate dating back to the start of 2024.
However, he’s very expensive at $10,500, and the matchup isn’t great. The Athletics are a top-ten offense against righties by wRC+, with a bottom-five strikeout rate. Given that their team total is just 3.3 runs, I’m not especially worried about Yamamoto getting knocked around. But, with his salary in the five figures, we’ll need plenty of strikeouts for him to pay it off.
To that end, we do have Yamamoto as the leader in K prediction, with a solid 7.0 projection. Whether that’s enough to take down a GPP or not depends on how the other pitchers on the slate score. Yamamoto leads the slate in median and ceiling projection but ranks fifth in Pts/Sal.
That makes him a very safe cash game pick, but potentially a bit thin for GPPs. I’ll have some exposure to him in tournaments, but he’s not my first look.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Randy Vasquez ($5,300) San Diego Padres (-190) vs. Los Angeles Angels
I’m shocked that Vasquez continues to carry such a low salary. Sure, he’s barely striking out 10% of the hitters he’s facing, but his ERA is a solid 3.76, and he’s coming off a 19.30 DraftKings score in his last start — which was in Colorado.
He has a much better environment tonight in San Diego, as Petco Park is the second-best pitcher’s park in all of baseball. He also has a great matchup with the Angels, who carry the highest strikeout rate against righties and a bottom-five wRC+ into the game.
Plus, Vegas is clearly on the side of Vasquez here. The Angels are implied for less than four runs, and his Padres are nearly two-to-one favorites. We’d have a real decision on our hands if Vasquez was $8,300, but at $5,300 he’s a rock-solid play for all contest types. He leads the slate in Pts/Sal by a healthy margin.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Clay Holmes ($9,000) New York Mets (-298) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates have the lowest implied team total on the slate tonight, with the market expecting them to score just three runs. On top of that, the Mets are the slate’s heaviest favorites, at roughly three-to-one odds.
Those to things are obviously a great sign for the pitcher, in this case Holmes. He brings a 2.47 ERA into the contest with similar underlying numbers and a solid 24.7% strikeout rate. The former reliever is being used as a starter for the first time in his career in 2025 but has thrown six innings in three of his last four starts.
The Pirates are the second-worst offense by wRC+ against righties this season, though they don’t strike out at a particularly high rate. Due to that, we probably need a fairly long start from Holmes to pay off his salary, but that’s well within his range of outcomes.
While he’ll be fairly heavily owned, his upside-to-cost ratio is arguably the best on the slate, making him a strong GPP play.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Cincinnati Reds:
The corollary to there not being many strong pitching options today is that there are plenty of lineups worth stacking. There are six offenses with team totals between 5.1 and 5.5, including the Reds.
The Reds have two things setting them apart, though. The first is that they’re cheap. An equivalent stack from the Mets or Padres would be $3,000 more expensive while only “buying” an extra 0.1 or 0.2 runs based on betting markets.
The other is that this game is at home in Great American Ball Park. GABP boosts home runs more than any park in baseball, which means a larger portion of their scoring should come from the long ball. The weather tonight also boosts home runs by 7% over the stadium average, per Weather Edge.
That’s obviously great for DFS, since a solo home run is worth more than a few singles in fantasy points.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Francisco Lindor ($5,400) New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Bailey Falter)
Speaking of those Mets, one spot where they’re actually cheaper than the Reds is at shortstop. Lindor is priced $100 cheaper than Elly De La Cruz and also has much lower projected ownership.
That’s despite his elite numbers against lefties, as we can see in PlateIQ:
Not that he’s the only one, as the first four Mets hitters all smash southpaws. However, that can only help Lindor, as he’s very likely to get driven home should he find himself on base.
Brandon Lowe 2B ($3,300) Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays (Chris Bassitt)
Brandon Lowe has struggled mightily this year, with just a .199 batting average. However, he’s due for some positive regression.
His BABIP of .245 is about 50 points lower than his career mark, and his xwOBA of .323 is about 70 points higher than his actual wOBA. While he’s striking out at a slightly higher rate than usual, his other batted ball data is all promising.
Plus, he’s taking on Chris Bassitt ($9,500), who’s been consistently worse against left-handed hitters. Lefties hit .305 against him last season and are hitting .286 this year. Considering Lowe’s price point and #2 spot in the lineup, that makes this a good day to bet on a breakout.
Shohei Ohtani 1B/OF ($6,500) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics (Gunnar Hogland)
It feels lazy even mentioning Ohtani, as he’s at worst the second-best hitter in all of baseball and should obviously be in your player pool on a nightly basis.
However, tonight seems like an especially good day to find the salary for him. Ohtani and the Dodgers lead the slate with a 5.5-run implied total as they take on Gunnar Hogland ($8,000), who is making just his third career start. Hogland has good numbers in his first two, but the Dodgers are a different animal.
Plus, with the savings from both Vasquez and the Reds stack, it’s not especially hard to find the salary for the 2024 MVP. He trails only De La Cruz for the highest median projection among all hitters tonight.
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Pictured: Elly De La Cruz
Photo Credit: Getty Images
