The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Chris Sale ($9,800) Atlanta Braves (-174) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Despite having 10 games, Wednesday’s slate is extremely weak for pitching. The leader in median and ceiling projection is Sale, but he’s barely projecting for 18 points and comes with a steep price tag.
The cautious projection is likely a function of the matchup. Arizona is a top-five overall offense in baseball, with a collective 115 wRC+. However, they’ve struggled against lefties this season, with just a 98 wRC+.
That’s helpful for the southpaw Sale, who has been excellent with a 3.06 ERA and 30% strikeout rate in 2025. Arizona strikes out at the lowest rate in the majors against lefties, though, which puts a considerable dent in Sale’s upside.
Still, he doesn’t need to put up a huge score to win you a tournament if the other pitchers are also underwhelming. For that reason, Sale is still a strong GPP option.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Sawyer Gipson-Long ($6,000) Detroit Tigers (-194) at Chicago White Sox
This will be the first major league start for Gipson Long since September of the 2023 season, making him a risky play today. The good news is that he couldn’t ask for a better opponent, as the White Sox rank 29th in the Majors in wRC+ while striking out at a top ten rate.
Plus, Gipson-Long’s minor league rehab starts have been encouraging. Across five appearances at all levels, he posted a 2.20 ERA and a 25% strikeout rate. The White Sox aren’t much better than a AAA team, so it’s reasonable to expect that to continue today.
The Vegas data is also encouraging. Gipson-Long’s Tigers are a heavier favorite than Sale’s Braves, and Chicago’s team total is virtually identical to Arizona’s. Gipson-Long threw 5.1 innings in his last AAA appearance, so he has a solid chance to stick around long enough for a win bonus.
At a $6,000 price tag, that’s good enough for me. He’s one of just two pitchers with a Pts/Sal projection of 2.0 or higher on the slate.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Nick Pivetta ($10,000) San Diego Padres (-112) at San Francisco Giants
I’m surprised to see Pivetta projecting for about half the ownership as Sale, since he’s just as strong of an option by most metrics.
Pivetta trails Sale slightly in median and ceiling projection, but there’s a lot to like. He has a softer matchup against the Giants, a below-average team against righties with an above-average strikeout rate. It’s also a great pitcher-friendly park in San Francisco, with scoring about 8% lower on average.
More importantly, Pivetta’s numbers are comparable to Sale’s. He has a 2.74 ERA and 28.9% strikeout rate on the season, which could translate to better production thanks to the matchup and ballpark.
Of course, ownership projection can sometimes be a recursive exercise. If everyone wants to play Pivetta because he’s at low ownership, then he won’t be low-owned anymore. For that reason, be sure to keep an eye on how we update the figures on both he and Sale, as I’d prefer whichever one is projecting as less popular.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Detroit Tigers:
Salaries on the Tigers hitters still haven’t really caught up to their production on the season. They have the best record in baseball and have scored the fourth-most runs of any team this season.
That’s especially noticeable today, when their complete stack comes in at just $21,000. That’s barely over $4,000 per player, and they’re implied for five runs on the road in Chicago.
The Tigers are also on the better side of their platoon splits (though it’s a slight difference) against left-handed Jarred Shuster ($5,500), who brings a 6.14 ERA to the table. He’ll be working as an opener in what’s mostly a bullpen day for Chicago, so don’t put too much stock in the platoon splits.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Carlos Correa SS ($3,700) Minnesota Twins at Athletics (Sean Newcomb)
The Twins were popping as the second-best stacking option of the day behind the Tigers. We’ve been all over them for their series in Sacramento this week, and they’ve scored ten runs each in the first two games.
There’s no reason to think that stops tonight against Sean Newcomb ($7,000), who has a 4.39 xERA on the season.
Carlos Correa is by far the best hitter against lefties in the lineup, with an extremely cheap price tag. Check out his (and the rest of Minnesota’s) numbers in PlateIQ:
Trent Grisham OF ($4,500) New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians (Luis L. Ortiz)
Guardians-Yankees has by far the best hitting weather on the main slate, with more than an 11% boost to bats according to Weather Edge. That’s part of why the Yankees are tied for the highest team total on the slate at 5.3 runs.
While I’d love to get my exposure through Aaron Judge ($6,500), it’s hard to find the room in the budget. Grisham is a nice alternative, with his .846 OPS on the season. Plus, he’s in front of Judge in the Yankees lineup, which boosts his run-scoring potential considerably.
Ketel Marte 2B ($5,400) Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves (Chris Sale)
If fading Sale tonight, it makes sense to try to get some leverage off the slate’s most popular pitcher. The best way to do so is fairly obvious, thanks to Marte’s strong splits against left-handed pitching.
While he’s struggled a bit this season, the switch-hitting Marte has a career .898 OPS and .307 average against southpaws. Those are both considerably better than his numbers against righties.
He’s a bit overpriced for his likeliest outcome in a tough matchup, but you can’t put a price on leverage. He could break the slate at his sub-2% ownership.
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Pictured: Spencer Torkelson
Photo Credit: Imagn
