MLB DFS DraftKings Picks Breakdown (Wednesday, June 25th)

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MLB DFS Pitching Picks

MLB DFS Stud Pick

Zach Wheeler ($10,300) Philadelphia Phillies (-156) at Houston Astros

In a world without Paul Skenes — who is on the early slate today — Wheeler would be the leading NL Cy Young candidate this season. The veteran righty has a 2.61 ERA and leads the league with his 32.9% strikeout rate through 15 starts, while averaging more than six innings pitched per appearance.

Those numbers are good enough where the day’s matchup doesn’t much matter. While we’d obviously love to roster him against bad lineups, Wheeler can put up points against any opponent. On that note, the Astros certainly aren’t a team we like to pick on, but they’re a roughly league-average unit against righties.

My one concern is that Houston strikes out at one of the lower rates in the league, which puts a bit of a cap on Wheeler’s upside. He still leads the slate in ceiling projection, but with his price tag, we need him to be a few points clear of any other pitcher to help you win a GPP.

Still, that’s well within his range of outcomes tonight. He’s an absolute lock for cash games, and I want at least some exposure in tournaments.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code FL55.

MLB DFS Value Pick

Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($8,800) Los Angeles Dodgers (-330) at Colorado Rockies

Today provides us with another reminder that “cheap” and “value” aren’t synonyms. The best value on the slate is Yamamoto, who leads the position in Pts/Sal projection, and has a 96% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. At $8,800, he isn’t cheap, though, which creates some interesting roster-building decisions.

Yamamoto has a sub-3.00 ERA and 28% strikeout rate on the season, plus a dream matchup. The Rockies strike out at the highest rate in the league against righties while ranking 29th in wRC+. This game is in Colorado, which is a slight downgrade to Yamamoto — but Park Factor doesn’t really matter if you can’t put the ball in play.

Given the matchup, you could certainly roster Yamamoto as your SP1, pair him with a cheaper second option, and have plenty of salary left for bats. You could also try to force him in a lineup with Wheeler or another expensive option and try to find some budget bats to round out your lineup.

The second option is viable thanks to a reasonably cheap top stack today and is my preferred GPP build.


Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.


MLB DFS GPP Pick

Logan Webb ($10,000) San Francisco Giants (-225) vs. Miami Marlins

Our current ownership projections have Webb coming in about 10% lower than Wheeler, which, coupled with his salary savings, makes him an elite GPP option.

While his numbers are slightly below Wheeler’s on the season, Webb has the third-best odds to win the NL Cy Young, with a 2.49 ERA and 27.9% strikeout rate. He also draws the better matchup tonight, as Miami strikes out more and scores less than the Astros when facing righties.

Oracle Park is one of the best pitcher’s stadiums in baseball as well, which is another factor in the Marlins 2.9-run total tonight. That’s the lowest on the slate by more than half a run, which is obviously a strong sign of the market’s view on Webb.

I strongly prefer him to Wheeler for GPPs despite his slightly lower projections. If Webb manages to keep it close, his lower ownership and salary make him the better play.

If you’re craving more MLB DFS or betting tools, be sure to check out one of our most powerful tools on the site—PlateIQ.

MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks

Notable Stack

With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.

The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the New York Yankees:

The most notable thing about this stack is who isn’t in it. That would be Aaron Judge ($6,700), as his salary is high enough to outweigh his strong projection in our models.

New York has scored just five runs in their first two games against the Reds, though that’s partially due to a matchup with uber-prospect Chase Burns yesterday. They have a potential bounce-back spot tonight against Brady Singer ($7,000), who comes into the game with a 4.13 ERA and higher underlying metrics.

The Judge-free version of this stack also allows you to pair Yamamoto with one of the top pitching options and fit under the salary cap, which is an intriguing build. While we’d obviously prefer to play Judge in this stack (or anytime), it could be worth the pivot.

Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!

Click here to find out how SimLabs can elevate your MLB DFS game, and watch the video below.

Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

In addition to our in-house MLB projections,  THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.

Nick Castellanos OF ($3,800) Philadelphia Phillies at Houston Astros (Colton Gordon)

The Phillies are on the strong side of their platoon splits today against left-handed Colton Gordon ($6,500). Gordon is one of the more beatable pitchers on the slate with a 4.54 ERA as well, so I’m interested in getting some Phillies bats.

Castellanos is the most affordable option at the top of their lineup. He’s also one of their better hitters against lefties, as we see in PlateIQ:

Max Muncy 3B ($5,000) Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies (Chase Dollander)

The Dodgers have a seven-run total for the second game of their series at Coors Field, and they produced nine runs in game 1. We obviously want some exposure to their bats, though it’s difficult to fit them around the strong pitchers on the slate.

While Muncy isn’t exactly cheap, he leads Los Angeles in Pts/Sal projection at his $5,000 salary. He’s hitting .281 with ten home runs against righties on the season, so it’s a solid spot for him to perform well. Jam as many Dodgers bats in as you can, but start at third base.

Tyler Stephenson C ($3,800) Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees (Max Fried)

Part of the reason the Yankees stack popped today is because of the conditions. Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati is the best home run park in baseball, and tonight the forecast calls for 90-degree temperatures with wind blowing out to center field.

That also boosts the Reds projections, though they have a tough matchup with lefty Max Fried ($9,500). Which is where Stephenson comes in. He has a .939 OPS against southpaws on the season and is the Reds best lefty beater. With Fried expected to garner some ownership, he’s also a nice leverage piece at a cheap price.

Interested in more MLB action? Check out Fanatics Sportsbook and use our Fanatics Sportsbook promo code.

Pictured: Zack Wheeler
Photo Credit: Getty Images

The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials
 

MLB DFS Pitching Picks

MLB DFS Stud Pick

Zach Wheeler ($10,300) Philadelphia Phillies (-156) at Houston Astros

In a world without Paul Skenes — who is on the early slate today — Wheeler would be the leading NL Cy Young candidate this season. The veteran righty has a 2.61 ERA and leads the league with his 32.9% strikeout rate through 15 starts, while averaging more than six innings pitched per appearance.

Those numbers are good enough where the day’s matchup doesn’t much matter. While we’d obviously love to roster him against bad lineups, Wheeler can put up points against any opponent. On that note, the Astros certainly aren’t a team we like to pick on, but they’re a roughly league-average unit against righties.

My one concern is that Houston strikes out at one of the lower rates in the league, which puts a bit of a cap on Wheeler’s upside. He still leads the slate in ceiling projection, but with his price tag, we need him to be a few points clear of any other pitcher to help you win a GPP.

Still, that’s well within his range of outcomes tonight. He’s an absolute lock for cash games, and I want at least some exposure in tournaments.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code FL55.

MLB DFS Value Pick

Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($8,800) Los Angeles Dodgers (-330) at Colorado Rockies

Today provides us with another reminder that “cheap” and “value” aren’t synonyms. The best value on the slate is Yamamoto, who leads the position in Pts/Sal projection, and has a 96% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. At $8,800, he isn’t cheap, though, which creates some interesting roster-building decisions.

Yamamoto has a sub-3.00 ERA and 28% strikeout rate on the season, plus a dream matchup. The Rockies strike out at the highest rate in the league against righties while ranking 29th in wRC+. This game is in Colorado, which is a slight downgrade to Yamamoto — but Park Factor doesn’t really matter if you can’t put the ball in play.

Given the matchup, you could certainly roster Yamamoto as your SP1, pair him with a cheaper second option, and have plenty of salary left for bats. You could also try to force him in a lineup with Wheeler or another expensive option and try to find some budget bats to round out your lineup.

The second option is viable thanks to a reasonably cheap top stack today and is my preferred GPP build.


Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.


MLB DFS GPP Pick

Logan Webb ($10,000) San Francisco Giants (-225) vs. Miami Marlins

Our current ownership projections have Webb coming in about 10% lower than Wheeler, which, coupled with his salary savings, makes him an elite GPP option.

While his numbers are slightly below Wheeler’s on the season, Webb has the third-best odds to win the NL Cy Young, with a 2.49 ERA and 27.9% strikeout rate. He also draws the better matchup tonight, as Miami strikes out more and scores less than the Astros when facing righties.

Oracle Park is one of the best pitcher’s stadiums in baseball as well, which is another factor in the Marlins 2.9-run total tonight. That’s the lowest on the slate by more than half a run, which is obviously a strong sign of the market’s view on Webb.

I strongly prefer him to Wheeler for GPPs despite his slightly lower projections. If Webb manages to keep it close, his lower ownership and salary make him the better play.

If you’re craving more MLB DFS or betting tools, be sure to check out one of our most powerful tools on the site—PlateIQ.

MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks

Notable Stack

With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.

The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the New York Yankees:

The most notable thing about this stack is who isn’t in it. That would be Aaron Judge ($6,700), as his salary is high enough to outweigh his strong projection in our models.

New York has scored just five runs in their first two games against the Reds, though that’s partially due to a matchup with uber-prospect Chase Burns yesterday. They have a potential bounce-back spot tonight against Brady Singer ($7,000), who comes into the game with a 4.13 ERA and higher underlying metrics.

The Judge-free version of this stack also allows you to pair Yamamoto with one of the top pitching options and fit under the salary cap, which is an intriguing build. While we’d obviously prefer to play Judge in this stack (or anytime), it could be worth the pivot.

Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!

Click here to find out how SimLabs can elevate your MLB DFS game, and watch the video below.

Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

In addition to our in-house MLB projections,  THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.

Nick Castellanos OF ($3,800) Philadelphia Phillies at Houston Astros (Colton Gordon)

The Phillies are on the strong side of their platoon splits today against left-handed Colton Gordon ($6,500). Gordon is one of the more beatable pitchers on the slate with a 4.54 ERA as well, so I’m interested in getting some Phillies bats.

Castellanos is the most affordable option at the top of their lineup. He’s also one of their better hitters against lefties, as we see in PlateIQ:

Max Muncy 3B ($5,000) Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies (Chase Dollander)

The Dodgers have a seven-run total for the second game of their series at Coors Field, and they produced nine runs in game 1. We obviously want some exposure to their bats, though it’s difficult to fit them around the strong pitchers on the slate.

While Muncy isn’t exactly cheap, he leads Los Angeles in Pts/Sal projection at his $5,000 salary. He’s hitting .281 with ten home runs against righties on the season, so it’s a solid spot for him to perform well. Jam as many Dodgers bats in as you can, but start at third base.

Tyler Stephenson C ($3,800) Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees (Max Fried)

Part of the reason the Yankees stack popped today is because of the conditions. Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati is the best home run park in baseball, and tonight the forecast calls for 90-degree temperatures with wind blowing out to center field.

That also boosts the Reds projections, though they have a tough matchup with lefty Max Fried ($9,500). Which is where Stephenson comes in. He has a .939 OPS against southpaws on the season and is the Reds best lefty beater. With Fried expected to garner some ownership, he’s also a nice leverage piece at a cheap price.

Interested in more MLB action? Check out Fanatics Sportsbook and use our Fanatics Sportsbook promo code.

Pictured: Zack Wheeler
Photo Credit: Getty Images

About the Author

Billy Ward writes NFL, MLB, and UFC DFS content for FantasyLabs. He has a degree in mathematical economics and a statistics minor. Ward's data-focused education allows him to take an analytical approach to betting and fantasy sports. Prior to joining Action and FantasyLabs in 2021, he contributed as a freelancer starting in 2018. He is also a former Professional MMA fighter.