The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Robbie Ray ($9,300) San Francisco Giants (-206) at Colorado Rockies
The strategy yesterday to roster a Giants lefty against the Rockies — and ignore the Park Factor at Coors Field — worked out reasonably well. Kyle Harrison went more than 2x his salary for the Giants, striking out six and allowing three runs over five innings.
Ray is nowhere near as cheap as Harrison was yesterday, but he’s also a much better pitcher. With a 28.4% strikeout rate and 2.44 ERA, there’s an argument he’s underpriced tonight even without considering the matchup.
Of course, considering the matchup is important. Colorado has the worst wRC+ against southpaws by a wide margin, and a 27.9% strikeout rate that somehow only rates second in the majors. That should help Ray limit runs and pick up a few extra Ks. Besides, Ray’s 40% ground ball rate and high strikeout rate should translate to Coors fairly well.
He leads the evening slate in median, ceiling, and Pts/Sal projection, making him a borderline lock in all contest types. While his ownership is likely to also be tops on the board, we can afford to get unique elsewhere.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
David Festa ($7,200) Minnesota Twins (-149) vs. Texas Rangers
We have to make some tough choices today outside of Ray, as every other pitcher in the slate has some clear flaws. The other pitcher projecting for a Pts/Sal multiplier of at least 2.0 is David Festa, a rookie making his fifth big-league start of the season.
The bad news for Festa is that his ERA is on the wrong side of 5.00 through his first four appearances in the majors this year. The good news is his underlying numbers are (mostly) much better, with xFIP and SEIRA marks below 4.00. Those are both driven by his excellent 28% strikeout rate, and he had a K rate over 30% in AAA this year.
The other good news is that he’s facing the Rangers. While they aren’t a team we automatically roster pitchers against (like the Rockies), they rank 27th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Their 4.0 run total is one of the lower marks on the slate, and combined with the Twins’ moneyline odds, Festa has very strong Vegas data for the price.
I expect the Ray/Festa combination to be fairly popular today, but they combine to be a fairly obvious cash game play. For GPPs, it’s probably worth it to look elsewhere at one of the two spots, but I want exposure to both of them individually.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
David Peterson ($8,800) New York Mets (-275) vs. Washington Nationals
The Nationals have the lowest implied total on the slate at just 3.3 runs, which is enough that Peterson is worth paying attention to. The Mets’ lefty has a sub-3.00 ERA on the season, and the Nationals are about 20% worse against lefties than righties this season.
It’s scary, though, because this game has excellent hitting weather according to Weather Edge, with conditions that boost overall scoring more than 15% on average. That’s compared to the base rate at Citi Field, which is a pitcher-friendly park, but still somewhat concerning.
That’s why I’m considering Peterson a GPP-only option, rather than a cash game play. He’s primarily a ground ball pitcher, which should limit the impact of the conditions, but it still adds a bit of variance to his range of outcomes.
With that said, he’s too cheap considering the excellent Vegas numbers so he’ll be a part of my tournament plans tonight.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
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The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the San Francisco Giants:
The Giants scored six runs in the first game of their series at Coors Field last night. While that fell just short of their implied total, it was still enough to provide some valuable fantasy scores, especially with their relatively cheap price tags.
The top five Giants hitters are even cheaper today but still have an excellent six-run implied total. That makes them pretty tough to fade, even in a slightly tougher matchup against Kyle Freeland ($5,000).
That’s not to say that Freeland is a pitcher to avoid; he has a 5.19 ERA on the season. If you need to get unique for larger field GPPs, there are other Giants options that make sense as well. However, it’s almost mandatory to have some exposure.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Aaron Judge OF ($6,500) New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals (Kris Bubic)
We’re projecting Judge to come in with much lower ownership than he typically does, thanks to a difficult matchup with Kris Bubic ($9,600). On the one hand, that makes sense — on the other, it’s Aaron Judge against a lefty.
I mentioned his exceptional splits against lefties yesterday, but they’re only more noteworthy now after he went yard in last night’s contest. Here’s what they look like now in PlateIQ:
This game also has extremely good hitting weather, and Kauffman Stadium is already an 8% scoring upgrade over Yankee Stadium. I’m going back to the well with Judge tonight.
Jarren Duran OF ($4,700) Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays (Zach Littell)
As is a recurring trend in tonight’s article, we’ve got solid hitting weather in Boston tonight. The wind is blowing directly out to centerfield, providing an 11% boost to home runs and 10% to overall scoring.
That’s partly why this game has an over/under of 10.0, with both teams implied for about five runs. Duran leads off the Red Sox lineup, and he’s hitting .271 with 14 steals on the season. He’s an excellent table setter with a chance to score multiple runs, making him a solid option.
Amed Rosario 3B ($3,700) Washington Nationals at New York Mets (David Peterson)
With the three pitchers mentioned in this article likely to dominate ownership tonight, it would be wise to roster a hitter against whichever of the three you fade. Part of the appeal for Peterson is the bad overall splits for the Nationals against lefties, but there is an exception in their lineup.
That would be Rosario, who’s hitting .282 on the season but .310 against left-handed pitching. He’s not a huge upside player since he lacks significant power or speed, but at his price tag, he doesn’t have to be. Just picking up a couple of hits (ideally with a run or RBI) gets him there while providing huge leverage against a chalky arm.
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Pictured: Robbie Ray
Photo Credit: Kelley L Cox-Imagn Images
