The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Max Fried ($9,800) New York Yankees (-141) at Toronto Blue Jays
Wednesday’s evening slate is a tough one for pitching, with only one real ace on the slate. That’s Fried, who isn’t an especially strong DFS pitcher thanks to his moderate strikeout rate and also faces a fairly difficult matchup in the Blue Jays.
That 23.1% strikeout rate is the bigger issue, as it limits Fried’s upside. On a positive note, there aren’t really any other options that are a safe bet to outscore him. He’s averaging 19.9 points per game on DraftKings, three full points ahead of any of the other starters.
The matchup with Toronto is more of a concern, as they’re a top-ten offense against left-handed pitching. With that said, Fried has a 2.43 ERA on the season, so his ability to keep runs off the board isn’t much of a concern.
Plus, his high salary should limit his ownership, especially since his projections trail two of the cheaper options on the slate. That makes him a solid pay-up-to-be-contrarian choice on Wednesday.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Taj Bradley ($7,000) Tampa Bay Rays (-210) vs. Chicago White Sox
One of those cheaper options is Taj Bradley, and there’s no concern about a difficult matchup for him. That’s because he gets to face the White Sox, the 29th-ranked team in baseball against right-handed pitching.
Bradley has been mediocre this season, with a 4.35 ERA and just over a 20% strikeout rate. However, his ERA predictors are all at least moderately better, so there’s a chance for some positive regression to come his way. That’s more likely in a winnable matchup against a bad team.
The bigger risk for Bradley is the weather, which currently has storms in Tampa set to clear by game time. A late start is no big deal, but a mid-game delay is disastrous for starting pitchers. Be sure to keep an eye on our free weather report as the game approaches.
Outside of that, it’s hard to justify not playing Bradley tonight. The White Sox 3.8-run team total is the lowest on the slate, and Bradley leads all pitchers in Pts/Sal projection by a solid margin, thanks in part to his 98% Bargain Rating on DraftKings.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Jesus Luzardo ($8,500) Philadelphia Phillies (-153) vs. Boston Red Sox
Luzardo leads the evening slate in both median and ceiling projection but, like Fried, comes with a fair amount of matchup-based risk. Boston is one of the league’s better teams against left-handed pitching, with a 110 wRC+ mark as a team.
However, they’re implied for just 3.9 runs, which is just shy of the lowest mark on the slate. That’s a solid mark relative to Luzardo’s price tag, and he’s also second in Pts/Sal projection behind only Bradley.
Where he stands out, though, is with his upside. His 27.5% strikeout rate is the highest on the slate, and Boston strikes out at an above-average rate despite their overall strength against southpaws. That makes Luzardo a bit of a boom-or-bust option, as a ton of Ks feels equally likely to Boston’s bats putting up big numbers.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays:
The lack of pitchers projecting well obviously correlates to some strong options at hitter, with the best among those being the Rays. They’re implied for a slate-high 5.4 runs tonight, in large part thanks to a matchup with Jonathan Cannon ($6,000).
Cannon’s 4.18 overall ERA is misleading, since some of his appearances have been out of the bullpen. As a starter, that number jumps to 4.61.
Even that elevated number is due for some regression, since his underlying metrics are all a bit higher as well. That makes the Rays an obvious starting point, plus they correlate nicely with Bradley at pitcher. That is, if the weather holds out.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Romy Gonzalez 1B/2B ($4,600) Boston Red Sox at Philadelphia Phillies (Jesus Luzardo)
With Luzardo projecting for over 50% ownership, any lineups that don’t use the Phillies lefty should have at least one player hitting against him. That’s because production from your hitter would also take away from Luzardo, producing massive leverage over lineups that have him.
As mentioned above, Boston is a solid team against lefties. Gonzalez stands out, though, as we see in PlateIQ:
Coupled with his reasonable price tag and multi-position eligibility, he’s a very solid play overall.
Brent Rooker OF ($4,400) Athletics at Rangers (Patrick Corbin)
While I’ve mostly come around to the idea that Patrick Corbin ($7,500) has miraculously become an above-average pitcher at age 35, it’s still hard to forget his five-year run of terrible numbers. I still want some exposure against him when he takes the mound, and the A’s have some solid options.
My favorite is Rooker, thanks to his elite numbers against left-handed pitching. He’s hitting .307 and slugging over .600 against lefties this season, giving him plenty of upside in a potentially strong matchup.
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Pictured: Brent Rooker
Photo Credit: Getty Images
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