The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Chris Sale (L) $9,900 Atlanta Braves (-211) vs. Athletics
With plenty of rotations rolling over back to their ace, we’re spoiled for choice at pitcher on Wednesday. Four arms are projecting for a median of 20 or more points, and seven pitchers have ceiling projections of 30 or above. The leader of the pack by a narrow margin is Chris Sale, who seems to be as good as he ever was in his age-37 season.
He made his 2026 debut last week against the Royals and threw six scoreless innings, striking out six. It’s rare for pitchers these days to even throw six innings in their season debut, but he was ultra-efficient, needing just 88 pitches to make it through six frames. That’s extremely valuable for DFS, as there’s a good chance he’d get the opportunity to go one more inning with a similar pitch count through six this time around.
He does have a tough matchup this time against the Athletics, at least in terms of run prevention. The good news is the A’s have had one of the higher strikeout rates against lefties since the start of 2025, giving Sale more upside but with slightly more risk. Of course, that risk is fairly minimal if you believe the betting lines, which have the A’s implied for just 3.3 runs.
Sale is a better GPP play than a cash-game one, though I certainly wouldn’t mind putting him on my cash-game rosters either if I could find the salary.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Matthew Boyd (L) $7,300 Chicago Cubs (-165) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Cubs southpaw Matthew Boyd got off to a rough start in 2026, giving up six earned runs before being chased out in the fourth inning on opening day against the Nationals. That makes him a bit scary today, but the combination of his decreased price tag, matchup, and 2025 numbers makes him worth the risk.
Boyd finished 2025 with a 3.21 ERA and 21.4% strikeout rate, the former number bordering on elite. While the latter is just okay, we’re not being asked to pay a premium price for Boyd. Plus, he gets to face the Angels today. They struck out at a league-high 27% clip against lefties last season and have picked up right where they left off this year with a 36.4% mark.
While that’s based on a minute sample size of just 22 plate appearances, the lineup is similar enough to last season’s that it’s a relatively safe bet the number stays high in general. They’re also implied for just 2.7 runs in what looks to be terrible hitting conditions at Wrigley, so I’m willing to give Boyd another shot in my lineups today.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Cristopher Sanchez (L) $9,200 Philadelphia Phillies (-261) vs. Washington Nationals
Sanchez might be the best overall play on the slate, with similar Vegas data and overall projections as Sale, but with a $700 cheaper price tag. He’s not quite cheap enough to take the Pts/Sal lead, and his median and ceiling projection are just behind Sale, but the combination of the two factors stands out. Depending on how ownership shakes out, he’s either an elite GPP pivot or a fine cash-game salary saver relative to Sale.
Jacob Misiorowski (R) $8,500 Milwaukee Brewers (-144) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
With all of the strong pitching options today, it looks like Misiorowski is getting lost in the shuffle. We have him projected for single-digit ownership despite his massive upside. He struck out 11 hitters in his 2026 debut after notching a 32% K rate in his rookie season. It’s a tougher matchup this time around against the Rays, but with Tampa implied for 3.3 runs, it’s one Misiorowski should win.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies:
The Phillies aren’t cheap today, but for good reason: they’re implied for a slate-high 5.4 runs today, half of a run higher than any other team on the slate. Part of that is due to the matchup. They’re facing Nationals righty Cade Cavalli ($6,200), who had a pedestrian 4.25 ERA last season and allowed three runs over 3.2 innings in his 2026 debut.
The other big factor is the weather. It’s worth monitoring the situation, as some storms seem to be rolling in around when this game should wrap up. However, if they hold long enough to play ball, the situation is elite for bats. Temperature approaching 80 degrees, strong winds out to right field, and a low-air-pressure/high-humidity combo that helps the ball fly farther.
Given all of the power in the Phillies lineup, those conditions could lead to plenty of home runs, which is obviously ideal for DFS. The chance of a rainout should give us a slight ownership discount as well, which makes them worth the risk in my book.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Wyatt Langford OF ($4,500) Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles (Trevor Rogers)
The other game today with solid hitting weather and a limited chance of being rained out is the meeting in Baltimore between the Orioles and Rangers. We’ve got temperatures in the 80s with winds blowing out, conditions that boost home runs by more than 20%.
The Rangers are taking on O’s lefty Trevor Rogers, who had an elite 1.81 ERA last season but is due for some major regression, with a 5.5% HR/FB ratio. Plus, the top of their lineup does great work against southpaws, as we see in PlateIQ:
I’m interested in mini-stacks of the Rangers in general, but Langford fits the best if also trying to stack the Phillies.
Drake Baldwin C ($4,300) Atlanta Braves vs. Athletics (Luis Severino)
The Braves’ 4.9-run implied total is second on the slate behind only the Phillies. While the obvious starting point is superstar Ronald Acuna ($5,900), he’s fairly difficult to afford, assuming you want to roster some of the star pitchers available today.
That’s where Baldwin comes in. He’s much cheaper, plus he has the added benefit of playing a position where production is harder to come by. On top of that, A’s starter Luis Severino is somewhat worse against lefty hitters, so Baldwin and first baseman Matt Olson ($4,900) get a slight boost to their projections relative to Acuna.
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Pictured: Chris Sale
Photo Credit: Imagn
