The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Tarik Skubal ($11,500) Detroit Tigers (-188) at St. Louis Cardinals
The price tag on Skubal is as high as I can ever recall seeing for a starting pitcher — but he might just be worth it. Overall, 2024’s AL Cy Young winner is on an absolute tear over the last few weeks, following a rough (by his standards) start to the campaign. His last four starts have all gone for at least 21 DraftKings points, and he’s averaging over 30 in that span.
Today, the next best median projection is just over 18 points, so even his floor game in that stretch has a chance to lead the slate. His average would almost certainly lead the day, justifying his high price tag.
It’s not the easiest matchup with the Cardinals, who are a roughly league-average offense against lefties in both run production and strikeouts. That probably doesn’t matter with an arm as good as Skubal’s, though. His 33.6% strikeout rate is second among qualified starters, and he has a 2.67 ERA that is both elite and due for some regression in his favor.
All of his underlying metrics are even better than his actual ERA, so the sky is the limit. The best part is that his salary will at least somewhat limit his ownership, making him an excellent all-around play.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Will Warren ($7,500) New York Yankees (-197) vs. Texas Rangers
After the Cardinals, the second-lowest team total on the slate belongs to the Texas Rangers. With an implied mark of just 3.7 runs, that makes Yankees starter Will Warren a solid value, in large part due to the matchup.
Texas ranks 25th in wRC+ against righties this season as their offense has been a major letdown. While they strike out at a fairly low rate, we don’t need a big K total from Warren given his salary. Warren has a solid 27.9% strikeout rate this season so he could still get there, but it’s not the most important factor.
All we need is five or six innings with limited runs, which he should be able to provide. While his ERA is 4.61, his FIP, xFIP, and SIERA are all below 3.50. A matchup with a below-average offense should help Warren realize some of that positive regression.
The excellent Vegas data for Warren and the Yankees is certainly a strong indicator that he will. He leads the slate in Pts/Sal by a wide margin and is an excellent option to pair with one of the more expensive arms.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($10,500) Los Angeles Dodgers (-236) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
While Skubal is an elite pitcher in a plus matchup, Yamamoto has a much tougher one. He’s taking on the Diamondbacks, who rank third in wRC+ against righties — but he’s also $1,000 cheaper and should be even lower owned than Skubal.
Yamamoto has an elite 2.12 ERA this season, though he’s due for some slight negative regression. He also has a strikeout rate just under 30%, ranking eighth among all pitchers. That, combined with the matchup, makes him a relatively boom-or-bust option today. Arizona could certainly get to him, but he could also hit double-digit strikeouts and I wouldn’t be shocked.
Even if he can just keep pace with Skubal, the extra $1,000 in salary could allow you to move past Skubal lineups elsewhere on your roster. Between that and his limited ownership, he’s a very strong GPP pivot at pitcher.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Athletics:
The Athletics narrowly edged out the Phillies tonight, despite Philly playing at Coors Field. That’s a relief if you’re interested in spending up at pitcher, since the A’s full stack is more than $8,000 cheaper than the equivalent Philadelphia lineup.
The A’s are also implied for six runs, making this stack laughably cheap. DraftKings hasn’t really caught up to the idea that they’re a solid offense, ranking 11th in wRC+ as a team overall.
Plus, the A’s temporary stadium has actually been slightly better for hitters than Coors this year, albeit in an extremely small sample size. On top of that, the weather is expected to be in the 80s, with a breeze out to right field.
That’s an ideal scenario for this lineup, especially the left-handed power bats. They’ll be popular thanks to the obvious value, but probably worth eating the chalk.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Yandy Diaz 1B/3B ($3,800) Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros (Brandon Walter)
I have no idea why Yandy Diaz is $500 cheaper than he was yesterday. The Rays’ team total is even higher, plus he put up ten points on DraftKings with a single, a double, and a run scored.
He’s also facing left-handed Brandon Walter ($6,800), who last pitched in the majors in 2023, where he had a 6.23 ERA. Diaz does his best work against lefties, as we see in PlateIQ:
His cheap price tag and positional flexibility make him easy to fit around any roster construction.
Trea Turner SS ($6,100) Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies (Antonio Senzatela)
It’s almost impossible to fit the full Phillies stack, but we almost certainly want some exposure to them tonight. They have a 6.8-run total against the Rockies, which easily leads the slate.
They put up nine runs last night in a tougher pitching matchup, with Turner producing 22 DraftKings points while falling a home run shy of the cycle. He’s the best combination of upside and value today thanks to his power and speed combination.
He leads all players in median and ceiling projection and is worth finding a way to squeeze into your lineup.
Paul Goldschmidt 1B ($4,500) New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers (Patrick Corbin)
Patrick Corbin ($7,300) has been shockingly good this season, with a 3.35 ERA through seven starts after four straight seasons with a mark over 5.00. I’m not sure I believe that the 35-year-old has suddenly gotten that much better, though, and the matchup with New York is extremely difficult.
They’re the best team in the majors against lefties by a wide margin, led by Goldschmidt and his absurd 1.614 OPS against southpaws. It’s a small sample size and obviously unsustainable, but he is a career .327 hitter against lefties.
With his reasonable salary compared to his teammates, he’s a great way to get some one-off exposure to the Yankees in a favorable matchup.
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Pictured: Tarik Skubal
Photo Credit: Getty Images
