The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Kodai Senga ($9,500) New York Mets (-247) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
There are a ton of strong pitching options on Tuesday’s slate, with six teams implied for 3.5 or fewer runs on the day. The lowest team total of the bunch belongs to the Pirates at 3.0, largely thanks to the matchup with Senga.
Senga has an elite 1.16 ERA this season and has allowed just five earned runs through seven starts. It’s a pretty safe bet that he won’t maintain quite that level of run prevention all year — his xERA is 3.31 presently — but it’s still a very encouraging sign. After missing most of 2024, he’s picked up right where he left off as a 30-year-old rookie in 2023.
A matchup against Pittsburgh’s 28th-ranked offense probably isn’t when the regression hits for Senga. The Pirates also strike out at a top-10 rate and get a slight downgrade in terms of park factor with this game being in New York.
Strikeouts are the one area where Senga has been slightly disappointing. With a 23% rate, that’s well below his 2023 mark of 29.1%. However, his swinging strike rate is pretty close to his mark from that season, so it’s likely he’ll work his way into the upper 20s at some point.
All things considered, that’s an elite mix of upside and safety in a strong matchup. The only real drawback is his salary, since some of the other strong options are a bit cheaper. That should keep Senga at a reasonable ownership level, though, so it isn’t necessarily a bad thing.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Dylan Cease ($8,300) San Diego Padres (-220) vs. Los Angeles Angels
The reason Senga isn’t projected as the top pitcher today is Cease, who narrowly edges him out in median and ceiling projection. On top of that, the Padres righty is $1,200 cheaper, making him a pretty clear top option.
Cease has an equally appealing matchup as Senga, with the added benefit that the Angels strike out at the highest rate in the league. Those numbers are also (mostly) based on an Angels lineup that includes Mike Trout. With Trout still on the IL, you could make a case that they’re an even worse offense than the Pirates.
The strikeout rate is a big deal with Cease on the mound, considering his excellent 27% strikeout rate is actually the lowest it’s been in the past five seasons. His 14.4% swinging strike rate leads the slate and points to some positive strikeout regression even in less juicy matchups.
On top of that, this game is in San Diego, the second-best pitchers’ park in baseball. The visiting Angels have just a 3.1-run implied total, narrowly avoiding the lowest mark on the slate. Cease is winning the projection triple crown tonight, leading in median, ceiling, and Pts/Sal projection. That makes him a borderline must-play in all contest types.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Max Fried ($10,500) New York Yankees (-141) at Seattle Mariners
Like his crosstown counterpart, Fried has a ridiculous — if unsustainable — ERA through the first month and a half of the season. His sits at just 1.05, having allowed six earned runs through 51.2 innings of work. Obviously that’s going to regress at some point — but perhaps not tonight.
Seattle is a top-three offense overall this season, but they rank a more manageable tenth against lefties like Fried. This game is also in Seattle, which is the best pitcher’s park in baseball by a wide margin. There are about 17% fewer runs scored in Seattle than in a typical park, more than double the impact of any other location.
Seattle is also on the wrong side of their strikeout splits against lefties, against whom they are punched out about 5% more. We’ll obviously need a ton of those from Fried at his salary, which is the highest on the slate by nearly $1,000.
Fried has a pedestrian 22.6% K rate, which doesn’t instill a ton of confidence, but he could also get there by making it deep into the game. That’s not incredibly likely but still within the range of outcomes. Given his extremely low ownership relative to the other top arms, he’s an excellent GPP pivot.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Texas Rangers:
After putting up 16 runs against the 1st-place Tigers over the weekend, Texas managed just two against the historically bad Rockies yesterday. Baseball is funny like that sometimes, but such is the nature of the beast.
They get another chance against the Rockies tonight and come into the game with a 5.3-run total that’s second-best on the slate. Despite that, they’re still incredibly cheap, which makes this stack a massive on-paper value.
Kyle Freeland ($5,000) isn’t actually as bad as his numbers would indicate — pitching half your games at Coors tends to do that — but he’s not a pitcher to avoid either. I’m not exactly excited about this Rangers stack, but the salary savings could be the difference in affording some slate-breaking hitters.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Ketel Marte 2B ($5,000) Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants (Robbie Ray)
The Diamondbacks are facing a lefty pitcher, so you know what time it is. In case you need a reminder, have a look at PlateIQ:
Marte against lefties is basically Aaron Judge ($6,400), but priced based on his overall production. Robbie Ray ($9,000) isn’t exactly an easy matchup, but I want at least some exposure to Marte at single-digit ownership anytime he faces a southpaw.
Will Smith C ($4,500) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics (TBD)
The A’s haven’t officially declared their starting pitcher tonight, but we’re projecting it to be left-hander Jeffrey Springs ($7,300). Springs has a 4.81 ERA and 5.13 xFIP on the season, so it would be good news for the Dodgers if he gets the ball.
Especially Smith, whose numbers against lefties over the past two seasons are virtually identical to (if not slightly better than) Shohei Ohtani ($6,500). Smith is $2,000 cheaper and plays a position where it’s harder to find points, making him an excellent play tonight.
Alex Verdugo OF ($3,800) Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals (Michael Soroka)
In case you need to save a bit more salary at outfield, you could do a lot worse than Verdugo. While he’s not a great hitter (.250 average and no home runs), he has the leadoff spot in Atlanta’s lineup — and the Braves’ team total is north of five.
That makes him a bit underpriced, especially in a winnable matchup against Michael Soroka ($5,600). The Nats’ starter has allowed eight runs through ten innings of work this season.
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Pictured: Dylan Cease
Photo Credit: Getty Images
