The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Carlos Rodon ($10,300) New York Yankees (-200) vs. Cleveland Guardians
Despite the large size of the 12-game slate, we aren’t exactly overflowing with pitching options on Tuesday night. The best one in terms of median and ceiling projection is Rodon, who’s taking on the Guardians in New York tonight.
Cleveland is implied for 3.4 runs despite the boost to bats from both Yankee Stadium and the weather, which speaks to the market’s faith in Rodon. He comes into the game with a 2.60 ERA and a 31.7% strikeout rate, both of which are among the league leaders.
Rodon is also left-handed, which is a boost when taking on the Guardians. They’re a bottom-10 team in wRC+ against lefties while striking out at a top-10 rate. Rodon effectively checks all the boxes tonight as a solid pitcher in a good matchup with Vegas on his side.
The drawback is his salary, which is enough clear of the other solid options that he’s not a great Pts/Sal play. His upside is such that it might not matter, but it makes him a tougher play in cash games. I’ll likely keep my exposure to Rodon limited to GPPs, since there are better price-considered options for cash.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Brayan Bello ($6,300) Boston Red Sox (-134) vs. Los Angeles Angels
One of those cheaper options is Bello, although I consider him also more of a GPP option. The biggest factor for Bello is the visiting Angels’ extreme strikeout rate of 26.5%—which is tied for the league high — giving him tons of upside relative to his price range.
At least, relative to his typical outings. Bello has been solid in run prevention this year, with a 3.83 ERA. However, he’s struggled to miss bats with just a 16.1% strikeout rate. The matchup with the Angels won’t turn him into Rodon, but if he can keep runs off the board while striking out a few extra hitters, he’ll be just fine at his salary.
The pessimistic view is that even if the Angels boost his strikeout rate by 10%, that still brings his rate to less than 18%. Plus, this game is at Fenway with favorable hitting weather, which could be a problem for the “keep runs off the board” side of the equation.
That makes the range of outcomes on Bello fairly wide, hence my grouping him as a GPP salary saver. He ranks second in Pts/Sal projection on Tuesday’s slate.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Hunter Greene ($9,500) Cincinnati Reds (-130) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Any time I can get Greene at roughly 10% projected ownership, I’m going to take that opportunity. Greene was arguably the best pitcher in the NL for the first part of the season, before an injury knocked him off course in early May. Now he’s back , though he’s struggled in his first two return starts.
I’m willing to take a chance on a pitcher who struggled post-injury, since he’ll likely return to his previous form sooner than later. It’s even better if we can get massive leverage on that chance thanks to his low ownership. If we wait around to see him have a bounce-back game, the rest of the field will be on him next start.
Greene has a 30%+ strikeout rate and sub-3.00 ERA even with two rough starts factored in. He has a golden opportunity to return to form against the Brewers, who rank 25th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
Be sure to keep an eye on our ownership projections — which update throughout the day — as we get closer to lock. If Greene catches some steam, he might not be worth the risk, but as it stands now, I want to be way overweight the field on him.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
I was all over the Twins/A’s game yesterday, largely thanks to the weather and stadium in Sacramento. That paid off with a 14-run contest between the two teams, and we have similar conditions and a soft pitching matchup tonight.
The Twins are taking on lefty Jacob Lopez ($6,000), who has thrown 38.1 big league innings across his three-year career. In that time he has a 5.40 ERA overall but a 7.36 ERA as a starter.
While the Twins aren’t great against lefties overall, they have plenty of right-handed bats in the lineup, affordable price tags outside of Buxton, and a slate-high six-run team total. All while getting a guaranteed ninth inning of bats since they’re on the road.
Make sure to keep an eye on your overall ownership if rostering the Twins since they’ll be popular, but outside of that they’re an excellent option.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Rob Refsnyder OF ($4,000) Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels (Yusei Kikuchi)
I mentioned in the section on Bello that the weather in Boston is favorable to bats. That’s especially true for righties, since the wind is blowing out to left field, home of the “Green Monster” in Fenway Park.
With Boston hosting a southpaw pitcher, right-handed pull power has a great opportunity tonight. I went looking for some in PlateIQ:
I found some in Refsnyder, who has four home runs in 38 at-bats against lefties this season. His career splits are similarly drastic, making him a great option at his price tag.
Parker Meadows OF ($3,700) Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox (Shane Smith)
I went with a different Tigers outfielder last night, and Kerry Carpenter paid it off with three home runs. Yesterday was also the season debut for Parker Meadows, who suffered a spring training injury that kept him out until June. He made an impact right away, hitting a double and a triple, plus stealing a base in his first game back.
He probably won’t replicate that exactly tonight, but it’s still an encouraging sign. Especially when he is hitting leadoff in a Tigers lineup that’s implied for 4.8 runs on the road in Chicago. I expect him to settle in as a $4K+ hitter if he remains healthy, so get him while he’s cheap.
Jonathan India 2B ($3,000) Kansas City Royals at St. Louis Cardinals (Andre Pallante)
I often fall for the trap of rostering India, as he frequently projects well from a Pts/Sal standpoint thanks to his cheap price tag and leadoff spot in the order. That cheap price tag comes because he’s hitting .235 with just one home run — but I’m willing to get hurt again today.
That’s because the Royals/Cardinals game tonight has ridiculous hitting weather that provides a 24% boost to home runs and an 8% boost to scoring overall. All India has to do is get on base and let somebody behind him do the rest.
More importantly, his price tag makes it much easier to afford the high-end pitchers on the slate.
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Pictured: Carlos Rodon
Photo Credit: Getty Images
