MLB DFS DraftKings Picks Breakdown (Tuesday, June 24th)

The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials
 

MLB DFS Pitching Picks

MLB DFS Stud Pick

Garret Crochet ($11,000) Boston Red Sox (-172) at Los Angeles Angels

Garret Crochet is one of seven qualified starters with a strikeout rate over 30% on the season. While he’s not the only one of those pitching today — or even on the main slate today — he’s the only one of them who gets to face the Angels.

The Agnels strikes out at a higher rate than any team in baseball against lefties, at an absurd 28% rate. We could easily see Crochet record more than half of his outs via strikeouts tonight, and our K Prediction has him well above any other arm on the slate.

He’s also pretty good at preventing runs, with a 2.20 ERA. While the Angels 3.6-run implied total isn’t the lowest on the board, it’s a safe assumption that some or all of their offense comes against the Boston bullpen.

Crochet leads the slate in median and ceiling projection and comes in third in Pts/Sal despite his $11,000 price tag. It’s difficult to fit him into lineups, but it could be well worth it tonight.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code FL55.

MLB DFS Value Pick

Tyler Anderson ($6,400) Los Angeles Angels (+144) vs. Boston Red Sox

Anderson ranks just above his opposite number in terms of Pts/Sal, checking in at second on the slate. Unlike Crochet, he’s not a huge upside piece — though his strikeout rate should be higher based on his swinging strike mark.

Nor does he have a great matchup against Boston, a top-five team in wRC+ against lefties. That’s somewhat concerning considering Anderson’s mid-fours ERA and underlying metrics. What he does have going for him is that he’s cheap—cheap enough to make getting to Crochet much more comfortable.

This is also one of the few games on the slate where the weather favors pitchers, since it’s somehow 30 degrees cooler in Los Angeles than in New York or most of the Midwest today. Stacking both pitchers in this one and betting on the weather is an interesting correlation play, and I’ll be making it with a small chunk of my lineups.


Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.


MLB DFS GPP Pick

Ryne Nelson ($6,500) Arizona Diamondbacks (-125) at Chicago White Sox

If Anderson is too risky for your tastes, there’s another option around his salary range that could be worth considering. That’s the Diamondbacks Nelson, who gets to take on the worst offense against righties in baseball tonight.

The White Sox 77 wRC+ against righties is the worst in the majors, and they rank sixth in strikeout rate at 23.2%. We aren’t rostering Nelson due to his massive strikeout upside as he’s about a 20% K Rate player, but adding a few punch outs certainly lifts his projection a bit.

More importantly, after starting the season primarily as a reliever Nelson is starting to be stretched out a bit. He went at least five innings in each of his last two starts, both topping 17 DraftKings points. The five inning mark is important because it makes him eligible for a win, and the extra four points is especially valuable relative to his price tag.

Our current ownership projections have him a bit behind Anderson, making him the more interesting GPP option. Be sure to check back throughout the day, though, as I’d consider a switch if Nelson were to catch some steam this afternoon.

If you’re craving more MLB DFS or betting tools, be sure to check out one of our most powerful tools on the site—PlateIQ.

MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks

Notable Stack

With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.

The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:

One of the reasons I included two cheap pitching options today was to justify the inclusion of the Dodgers stack.

Their top five hitters come in at an absurd $30,800, or more than $6,000 per player. Even if you paired this stack with both Nelson and Anderson, you’re still left with effectively minimum salary for your other three hitter spots, but it is theoretically possible to make those lineups work.

They could break the slate today, as they’re in Coors Field and have a 7.5-run total. That’s more than two runs higher than any other team.

Their salaries should keep ownership (or at least combined ownership of the entire stack) fairly reasonable, so it’s worth trying to force a lineup or two with them into your portfolio today.

Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!

Click here to find out how SimLabs can elevate your MLB DFS game, and watch the video below.

Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

In addition to our in-house MLB projections,  THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.

Trent Grisham OF ($4,100) New York Yankees at Cincinnati Reds (Chase Burns)

When factoring in price, the Yankees are my actual top stack today. Their five best bats come in at more than $6,000 cheaper than the Dodgers equivalent, and they have a very strong 5.4-run total.

They’re taking on Chase Burns ($8,000), the second pick in the 2024 MLB draft, who is making his big league debut. The star prospect has a 2.19 ERA in AAA this season, but the Yankees are a tough welcome to the majors. You can see how strong their lineup is in PlateIQ:

Grisham is pretty cheap for his leadoff spot in that lineup and his solid numbers against righties. This is more about the team stack, though, especially with 90-degree weather and wind blowing out to left field in the best home run park in the majors.

Carlos Narvaez C ($3,800) Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels (Tyler Anderson)

When making the case against Tyler Anderson above, one of the things I pointed out was Boston’s solid splits against left-handed pitching. A good chunk of that is from Narvaez.

The rookie catcher has a .298 batting average against southpaws this season and a .947 OPS. He’s also hitting cleanup and is eligible at a position where it’s somewhat difficult to find production. That’s enough for me at $3,800, especially on a slate where saving salary where possible is important.

Brendan Donovan 2B ($3,800) St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs (Jameson Taillon)

I included Donovan in this article yesterday, and he rewarded us with a two-run home run and 16 DraftKings points.

Let’s go back to that well, with the Cardinals leadoff man still underpriced for his production. The Cards have a solid 4.5-run total and elite hitting weather, with a 13% boost to scoring and a 15% boost to homers tonight in St. Louis.

They also have a solid matchup against Jameson Taillon ($8,500), whose 3.84 ERA is hiding his worse underlying stats, some of which are in the high fours.

Interested in more MLB action? Check out Fanatics Sportsbook and use our Fanatics Sportsbook promo code.

Pictured: Garrett Crochet
Photo Credit: Imagn

The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials
 

MLB DFS Pitching Picks

MLB DFS Stud Pick

Garret Crochet ($11,000) Boston Red Sox (-172) at Los Angeles Angels

Garret Crochet is one of seven qualified starters with a strikeout rate over 30% on the season. While he’s not the only one of those pitching today — or even on the main slate today — he’s the only one of them who gets to face the Angels.

The Agnels strikes out at a higher rate than any team in baseball against lefties, at an absurd 28% rate. We could easily see Crochet record more than half of his outs via strikeouts tonight, and our K Prediction has him well above any other arm on the slate.

He’s also pretty good at preventing runs, with a 2.20 ERA. While the Angels 3.6-run implied total isn’t the lowest on the board, it’s a safe assumption that some or all of their offense comes against the Boston bullpen.

Crochet leads the slate in median and ceiling projection and comes in third in Pts/Sal despite his $11,000 price tag. It’s difficult to fit him into lineups, but it could be well worth it tonight.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code FL55.

MLB DFS Value Pick

Tyler Anderson ($6,400) Los Angeles Angels (+144) vs. Boston Red Sox

Anderson ranks just above his opposite number in terms of Pts/Sal, checking in at second on the slate. Unlike Crochet, he’s not a huge upside piece — though his strikeout rate should be higher based on his swinging strike mark.

Nor does he have a great matchup against Boston, a top-five team in wRC+ against lefties. That’s somewhat concerning considering Anderson’s mid-fours ERA and underlying metrics. What he does have going for him is that he’s cheap—cheap enough to make getting to Crochet much more comfortable.

This is also one of the few games on the slate where the weather favors pitchers, since it’s somehow 30 degrees cooler in Los Angeles than in New York or most of the Midwest today. Stacking both pitchers in this one and betting on the weather is an interesting correlation play, and I’ll be making it with a small chunk of my lineups.


Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.


MLB DFS GPP Pick

Ryne Nelson ($6,500) Arizona Diamondbacks (-125) at Chicago White Sox

If Anderson is too risky for your tastes, there’s another option around his salary range that could be worth considering. That’s the Diamondbacks Nelson, who gets to take on the worst offense against righties in baseball tonight.

The White Sox 77 wRC+ against righties is the worst in the majors, and they rank sixth in strikeout rate at 23.2%. We aren’t rostering Nelson due to his massive strikeout upside as he’s about a 20% K Rate player, but adding a few punch outs certainly lifts his projection a bit.

More importantly, after starting the season primarily as a reliever Nelson is starting to be stretched out a bit. He went at least five innings in each of his last two starts, both topping 17 DraftKings points. The five inning mark is important because it makes him eligible for a win, and the extra four points is especially valuable relative to his price tag.

Our current ownership projections have him a bit behind Anderson, making him the more interesting GPP option. Be sure to check back throughout the day, though, as I’d consider a switch if Nelson were to catch some steam this afternoon.

If you’re craving more MLB DFS or betting tools, be sure to check out one of our most powerful tools on the site—PlateIQ.

MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks

Notable Stack

With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.

The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:

One of the reasons I included two cheap pitching options today was to justify the inclusion of the Dodgers stack.

Their top five hitters come in at an absurd $30,800, or more than $6,000 per player. Even if you paired this stack with both Nelson and Anderson, you’re still left with effectively minimum salary for your other three hitter spots, but it is theoretically possible to make those lineups work.

They could break the slate today, as they’re in Coors Field and have a 7.5-run total. That’s more than two runs higher than any other team.

Their salaries should keep ownership (or at least combined ownership of the entire stack) fairly reasonable, so it’s worth trying to force a lineup or two with them into your portfolio today.

Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!

Click here to find out how SimLabs can elevate your MLB DFS game, and watch the video below.

Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

In addition to our in-house MLB projections,  THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.

Trent Grisham OF ($4,100) New York Yankees at Cincinnati Reds (Chase Burns)

When factoring in price, the Yankees are my actual top stack today. Their five best bats come in at more than $6,000 cheaper than the Dodgers equivalent, and they have a very strong 5.4-run total.

They’re taking on Chase Burns ($8,000), the second pick in the 2024 MLB draft, who is making his big league debut. The star prospect has a 2.19 ERA in AAA this season, but the Yankees are a tough welcome to the majors. You can see how strong their lineup is in PlateIQ:

Grisham is pretty cheap for his leadoff spot in that lineup and his solid numbers against righties. This is more about the team stack, though, especially with 90-degree weather and wind blowing out to left field in the best home run park in the majors.

Carlos Narvaez C ($3,800) Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels (Tyler Anderson)

When making the case against Tyler Anderson above, one of the things I pointed out was Boston’s solid splits against left-handed pitching. A good chunk of that is from Narvaez.

The rookie catcher has a .298 batting average against southpaws this season and a .947 OPS. He’s also hitting cleanup and is eligible at a position where it’s somewhat difficult to find production. That’s enough for me at $3,800, especially on a slate where saving salary where possible is important.

Brendan Donovan 2B ($3,800) St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs (Jameson Taillon)

I included Donovan in this article yesterday, and he rewarded us with a two-run home run and 16 DraftKings points.

Let’s go back to that well, with the Cardinals leadoff man still underpriced for his production. The Cards have a solid 4.5-run total and elite hitting weather, with a 13% boost to scoring and a 15% boost to homers tonight in St. Louis.

They also have a solid matchup against Jameson Taillon ($8,500), whose 3.84 ERA is hiding his worse underlying stats, some of which are in the high fours.

Interested in more MLB action? Check out Fanatics Sportsbook and use our Fanatics Sportsbook promo code.

Pictured: Garrett Crochet
Photo Credit: Imagn

About the Author

Billy Ward writes NFL, MLB, and UFC DFS content for FantasyLabs. He has a degree in mathematical economics and a statistics minor. Ward's data-focused education allows him to take an analytical approach to betting and fantasy sports. Prior to joining Action and FantasyLabs in 2021, he contributed as a freelancer starting in 2018. He is also a former Professional MMA fighter.