The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Parker Messick (L) $9,300 Cleveland Guardians (-115) vs. Chicago White Sox
The best pitching environment on the slate tonight is in Chicago, where both teams have 3.6-run implied totals. That’s in part due to this being one of the few spots where the weather limits scoring without also coming with a risk of rain delays, plus Rate Field being slightly positive for defense in terms of park factors.
The other point is, of course, rookie southpaw Patrick Messick‘s ability. In 2025, he threw 39.2 big-league innings (a bit under the 50-inning threshold to lose rookie status) and finished with a 2.72 ERA. So far in 2026, he’s sitting at 2.70 through more than 80 innings of work. Combined, that’s a decent sample size, though it does come with ERA predictors all somewhat higher.
The challenge tonight is the matchup. The White Sox are a top-five unit in baseball against left-handed pitching but roughly average overall, so it’s entirely plausible that the market is undervaluing them in this matchup. On the plus side, they strike out at a high rate both overall and against lefties specifically. That gives Messick a decent boost over his good-not-great 25.3% career strikeout rate.
All things considered, the range of outcomes is a bit wider than I’d prefer for Messick, but the upside is certainly there. On a fairly thin pitching slate, that’s enough for him to be the top play, and he leads our projections in median and ceiling.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Robbie Ray (L) $7,800 San Francisco Giants (-120) vs. Athletics
The Athletics are another team that naturally creates a wide range of outcomes for their opponents, at least when facing southpaws. The A’s rank 8th in wRC+ against lefties, but they also rank fifth in strikeout rate, creating a boom-or-bust scenario for opposing pitchers.
The good news is that this game being in San Francisco rather than Sacramento (or Vegas) makes the “bust” side far more likely for the A’s offense. Their free-swinging works very well with the park factors at their home ballpark(s), both of which have boosted scoring and home runs massively. Oracle Park is the second-worst home run park in baseball and a negative to overall scoring as well.
We see that in Rays’ numbers this season. His road ERA is 4.54, with his home mark almost a full run lower at 3.55. He’s also allowed roughly half the home runs at home as on the road, with a similar number of innings pitched. He’s not the strikeout pitcher he once was early in his career, but his 22% rate should get a boost in this matchup.
More importantly, at $7,800, he doesn’t need a ton of upside to pay off his salary. He’s probably my favorite price-considered pitching option on the slate, and he has the strongest Pts/Sal projections.
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MLB DFS Tournament Picks
Sean Burke (R) $7,000 Chicago White Sox (–105) vs. Cleveland Guardians
The only other contender for my personal favorite option is the White Sox’s Burke. His ERA and underlying numbers are all just under 4.00, and he’s only $7,000 despite the Guardians’ 3.6-run implied total. Cleveland is a well-below-average offense against righties when considering their full-season numbers, but they’re also still without Jose Ramirez, arguably their best overall hitter. Our K prediction of 5.8 for Burke trails only Ray for best on the slate, and his 95% Bargain Rating on DraftKings is also elite. He’s a great budget option for lineups trying to spend up on hitters.
Shane Baz (R) $8,200 Baltimore Orioles (-155) at Los Angeles Angels
Most of the argument for Baz tonight is based around the matchup and his fairly low projected ownership. The Angels are tied for the highest strikeout rate in the MLB against righties (and lead the AL outright), while Baz has the lowest projected ownership of any of the pitchers mentioned here. The former first-round pick has an ERA right around 4.0 and a sub-20% strikeout rate – though his career strikeout mark is considerably higher – so not exactly elite numbers, but if there’s a spot to get on track, this is it.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
The Red Sox losing a 3-2 pitcher’s duel at Coors Field wasn’t on anyone’s bingo cards last night, but they have a chance to bounce back today. With a six-run implied total, they’re nearly a full run above any other team on the slate, and they’re on the better side of their fairly extreme platoon splits tonight against lefty starter Sean Sullivan ($5,000).
Last night’s awful offense, of which eight innings were against righties, moved Boston into dead last against right-handed pitching with an 84 wRC+. That’s nearly 20 points off their 103 mark against southpaws, which is good enough for eighth in baseball.
My dream here is that the field was burned badly enough yesterday that they largely avoid Boston tonight. I’m not sure we’ll get that, but at worst, the increased price tag makes them somewhat harder to fit. If you’re as all-in on budget pitchers as I am tonight, it sets up fairly nicely, so I’m going back to the well and rooting for a rebound.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Shea Langeliers C ($5,800) Athletics at San Francisco Giants (Robbie Ray)
Obviously with Ray projecting as the top pitcher on the slate, there’s not going to be much interest in the A’s offense. That makes their hitters elite leverage opportunities, though. The best option is clearly Langeliers, who has absurd numbers against left-handed pitching, as we see in PlateIQ:
His traditional stats tell a similar story, with a .338 batting average and 1.053 OPS. The matchup (and park) make this a less-than-ideal time to play him, but given the potential payoff, it’s worth carving out some salary and getting some exposure.
Jake McCarthy OF ($4,800) Colorado Rockies vs. Boston Red Sox (Sonny Gray)
Another potentially contrarian option tonight is to roster the Rockies instead of the Red Sox as your primary stack. Colorado’s 4.8-run total is among the best on the slate, though they’re surprisingly more expensive than the Red Sox as a whole.
They’re solid against righties, ranking roughly league average, with five of their first six hitters batting either left-handed or switch. That’s a potential boost against Sonny Gray ($8,700), who has an OPS about 30 points higher against left-handed hitting. He also has a sub-20% strikeout rate, which could be an issue at Coors Field.
McCarthy is the best overall value as a left-handed-hitting leadoff bat, but the Rockies lineup in general is in play tonight as a potential contrarian stack.
Mauricio Dubon SS/OF ($3,100) Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres (German Marquez)
While I’m not exactly excited about it, I find myself clicking Dubon as the last piece in plenty of lineups today. He’s just $3,100, and his multi-position eligibility means he fits around most roster structures. He’s especially useful at shortstop, where your options otherwise are to pay north of $5,000 or completely punt.
He also has the projected top spot in Atlanta’s lineup that has a solid 4.1-run total on the road. That’s enough for me to roster a perfectly average hitter (he has a 100 wRC+) at his price point, especially when salary gets tight around Coors stacks.
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Pictured: Parker Messick
Photo Credit: Imagn
