The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Lance McCullers ($8,500) Houston Astros (-174) vs. Chicago White Sox
It’s a weird slate for pitching, as we have the highest projection in both median and ceiling on a starter with a 4.44 ERA through six starts after missing the entirety of the prior three seasons. That would be McCullers, and despite that negative framing of his situation, it’s still difficult to argue with him as the top option.
It’s largely due to the matchup with the White Sox, who, despite marginal improvement in recent weeks, still rank 29th in the majors against right-handed pitching. Their 3.4-run total is the lowest on the slate. That’s helpful for McCullers, since he’s struggled somewhat in run prevention but has a borderline-elite 28.9% strikeout rate on the season.
Beyond that, as a blanket rule, you should almost always roster an $8,500 pitcher when his opponent has the lowest total on the slate. At that price tag, we don’t need a huge day from McCullers for him to pay off. He’s also coming off back-to-back 27+ point games, so a big game is well within reach against the White Sox.
Besides his lead in median and ceiling projections, he’s just shy of the top Pts/Sal projection on the slate. That makes him a strong play in all contest types.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Kyle Harrison ($6,600) San Francisco Giants (-235) at Colorado Rockies
There was a time that we almost always faded pitchers from both teams at Coors Field. That’s no longer, since the Rockies offense is so bad that we can overlook the boost to bats provided by their home ballpark. That goes double against lefties.
Colorado’s 71 wRC+ against righties is the worst in the league by 12 points. Against lefties, their mark drops to a hilariously bad 53. They’ve scored the fewest runs in the majors this season despite playing in the best hitter’s park while striking out at the second-highest rate.
That means playing pitchers against them is a good idea as a rule. Even if, like Harrison, they’re fairly mediocre. The 23-year-old has a 4.34 ERA and a 24.1% strikeout rate, which normally wouldn’t catch any eyes — but it’s probably enough against the Rockies.
He’s the lone pitcher with a better Pts/Sal projection than McCullers and is worth rostering in all contest types.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Mackenzie Gore ($10,000) Washington Nationals (+129) at New York Mets
The other two starters we talked about today are worth playing because of their matchups—Gore might be in spite of his.
The Nationals’ breakout ace has a 2.87 ERA on the season and leads the league with his 35.4% strikeout rate. That’s 2% higher than the pitcher in second place—defending AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal. That’s added up to a 22.8 PPG average on DraftKings for Gore, also tops on the slate.
The challenge is the matchup, since the Mets are a top-five offense in baseball with their 116 wRC+. However, they’re on the wrong side of their platoon splits against the lefty Gore, losing six points in wRC+. It’s not a massive drop, but it certainly helps the case for Gore.
The matchup seems to be scaring the field away from Gore, since his 13% projected ownership puts him outside the top five pitchers. That’s far too low for a player with his upside, making him an excellent GPP pivot.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the San Francisco Giants:
We still like rostering the visiting team’s hitters at Coors Field this year, since the Rockies’ offensive struggles don’t do anything to limit their opponent’s scoring.
That’s the Giants this week, who come into Tuesday night with a slate-high 7.1-run total. They’re not all that expensive given their massive implied mark, making them a relatively obvious stacking choice.
Because of that, expect massive ownership of their hitters tonight. One way to work around that is to roster them alongside Gore, but it’s important to be mindful of ownership in general if looking to this specific Giants stack.
They’re taking on lefty Carson Palmquist ($5,000) who has an 8.50 ERA through four career starts. While the Giants hit lefties at a below-average rate, they should be able to get there given the matchup and ballpark.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Aaron Judge OF ($6,600) New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals (Noah Cameron)
The forecast is for nearly 90-degree temperatures in Kansas City tonight, with winds blowing out to left field. In total, that boosts scoring 5.8% and home runs 7.7%, according to Weather Edge. That’s not great for pitchers in general, but it’s terrifying when facing the Yankees.
Especially for lefties, against whom Aaron Judge has absurd numbers. Check them out in PlateIQ:
While we could recommend Judge every day and it would make sense, the combination of matchup, conditions, and cheap pitching options makes him especially noteworthy today.
Bo Bichette SS ($4,000) Toronto Blue Jays at St. Louis Cardinals (Miles Mikolas)
One pivot I’m interested in making from the Giants stack is Willy Adames for Bo Bichette. Not only does it save $400 in salary, but it also makes rosters a bit more unique—and you can always use that opening to roster a different Giants bat elsewhere in the lineup.
The game in St. Louis has even better hitting weather than in Kansas City, with a double-digit boost to both home runs and overall scoring. Bichette started the season slowly but has picked up in the last month or so but is still due for some regression. His xWOBA is about 50 points higher than his actual wOBA, and his HR/FB ratio is about 5% lower than his career average.
Given the situation tonight, he could realize some of that positive regression, all while saving salary and ownership from the chalky Adames.
Corbin Carroll OF ($5,700) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners (Logan Evans)
With Logan Evans ($6,500) getting called back up to the majors to make the start for Seattle, I’m interested in stacking the Diamondbacks tonight. Evans has bounced back and forth between the majors and minors, with a 2.83 ERA at the MLB level but ERA predictors in the upper fours.
Now he’s taking on a tough Arizona team away from the pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park in Seattle, making this a tough ask. Carroll is Arizona’s best—but certainly not only—option today, with a double-digit median projection.
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Pictured: Aaron Judge
Photo Credit: Imagn
