The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
AJ Smith-Shawver ($9,800) Atlanta Braves (-155) vs. Washington Nationals
Smith-Shawver is a “stud” only in the context of the five-game Thursday night slate. He’s projecting with a median of just under 16 points, which is pretty rough for his salary — but that’s still the highest mark on the board.
He’s taking on the Nationals, who are a roughly league-average matchup both overall and against righties. Washington has some tougher outs at the top in CJ Abrams ($5,400) and James Wood ($5,100), both of whom rank inside the top 20 in the MLB in terms of wRC+. However, they’re fairly weak after that, so there are some easier spots in the lineup.
The real concern is the difference between Smith-Shawver’s 2.33 ERA and 4.88 xERA. That makes him a serious regression candidate, but his salary has risen in line with his actual results. There’s no guarantee that regression will hit today, though, and it’s not like we have many better options.
I’m probably fading Smith-Shawver in GPPs since his ownership will be fairly high relative to his upside. However, if you’re playing cash games, he’s the closest thing to a safe bet on the slate.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Cade Povich ($6,000) Baltimore Orioles (+110) at Boston Red Sox
Povich is another pitcher who fits into his category almost by default. He’s the cheapest pitcher on the slate but is in the middle in terms of his opponent’s team total. That makes him an obvious value, but a scary one considering the tough matchup in Fenway.
Boston hits lefties better than righties, and Fenway is one of the best hitters’ parks in the game. The latter factor is mitigated a bit by the weather, with the current forecast limiting runs by more than 8% based on Weather Edge. However, this game is also very likely to get rained out, so be sure to keep an eye on our free weather report.
However, if this game gets the all-clear, Povich is a fine play. He doesn’t have the best numbers, but the moderate total for the Red Sox suggests he should at least pay off his low salary. He leads the slate in Pts/Sal projection by a fairly wide margin.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Jack Flaherty ($8,300) Detroit Tigers (-130) vs. Cleveland Guardians
Flaherty hasn’t lived up to the expectation the Tigers had for him when they re-signed him this offseason after a deadline deal to the Dodgers last summer. His ERA is up more than a full run from last season and sits at 4.44 heading into today’s start.
They’re hoping some extra rest can right the ship, as the Tigers chose to have a bullpen day yesterday in order to give Flaherty an extra day of rest. We’ll see if it works tonight against the Guardians, who have an exactly league-average wRC+ of 100 against righties.
There are some other points working in Flaherty’s favor, though, especially for DFS. His 28.9% strikeout rate is still excellent, which has led to the occasional big game. Both his HR/FB ratio and his BABIP are also well above his career average, which suggests he’s been the victim of some bad luck.
The low 50s temperature in Detroit tonight also serves as a boost to pitchers and is reflected in the Guardians’ slate-low 3.8-run team total. Given the discount we’re seeing on Flaherty, that makes him a strong, if somewhat high-variance, play tonight.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
The Braves are a pretty obvious top stack tonight, as their 4.8-run implied total is tied for the best on the slate. That’s despite a very affordable salary across the five members of this stack.
They’re taking on Trevor Williams ($6,300) of the Nationals. Williams has a 5.91 overall ERA on the season, though his underlying numbers have been somewhat better.
Crucially, Williams has gotten shelled by left-handed hitting this year. Lefty bats have a .383 batting average and 1.014 OPS so far this season. With this stack featuring three lefties (effectively, since Albies will bat from the left side against the righties), they’re in a good position to get to Williams.
You could also rework a Braves stack to feature exclusively left-handed or switch-hitting players, which would be an interesting tweak for larger field GPPs.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
James Wood OF ($5,100) Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves (AJ Smith-Shawver)
I mentioned Wood and his teammate CJ Abrams above as possible trouble spots for Smith-Shawver in the Nationals lineup. They’re also excellent leverage plays, since Smith-Shawver is likely to be extremely popular.
You can see why they both stand out in PlateIQ:
Oneil Cruz SS ($6,000) Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Carlos Rodriguez)
The Pirates are interesting tonight based on the matchup. They’re facing Carlos Rodriguez ($7,000), a rookie with a 7.30 ERA through three big league starts. Pittsburgh’s offense doesn’t give us a ton of great options, but there’s always Cruz. His 18 stolen bases lead the majors, and he’s also added eight home runs.
Cruz has just a .111 batting average against southpaws this season, but a much stronger .270 mark against righties. That gap probably shrinks at one point, but I still want to make a point to roster him against right-handed starters like Rodriguez.
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Pictured: AJ Smith-Shawver
Photo Credit: Imagn
