The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Kevin Gausman ($8,800) Toronto Blue Jays (-167) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
After being spoiled with a variety of solid starting pitchers yesterday, Thursday’s four-game slate is a totally different animal. Not a single starter in our models is projecting for even 18 points on DraftKings, with Gausman coming the closest with his 17.18 median projection.
It makes sense for him to lead the slate, given that the Rays have the lowest team total at just 3.6 runs. While Tampa has a slightly above average wRC+ against righties this season, Gausman has been solid, with his ERA and all of his underlying metrics all below 4.00.
He also brings a solid-but-unspectacular 23% strikeout rate. On a larger slate that wouldn’t catch any eyes, but with the limited number of options today, it actually stands out. Especially in this matchup, since Tampa strikes out at a top-ten rate against right-handed pitching.
All in all, it’s hard to say Gausman is a great play in a vacuum, but he’s pretty clearly the best pitcher of the eight we have to choose from. He leads the slate in median, ceiling, and Pts/Sal projection on Thursday.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Nick Martinez ($8,300) Cincinnati Reds (-220) vs. Chicago White Sox
Sometimes we get lucky and find a pitcher who is priced for their usual performance but in a matchup that is well above average. That’s not exactly the case here, as Martinez’s salary is very clearly a reflection of the matchup. He’s $500 more expensive than he was in his last start, despite scoring just 11.50 DraftKings points in that one.
Still, it’s hard to ignore the matchup. Chicago ranks 28th in wRC+ and 5th in strikeout rate against righties, boosting the projection of any pitcher who takes them on. They’re one of just three teams on the slate implied for less than four runs, despite this game taking place in hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.
Martinez has been okay overall this season, with a low-fours ERA and slightly better underlying numbers. That discrepancy is mostly due to where he plays his home games, though, so it’s hard to bank on positive regression tonight.
Regardless, he’s the cheapest of the three starters, implied for less than four runs against, making him a value play essentially by default. He trails only Gausman in Pts/Sal projection.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
AJ Smith-Shawver ($9,300) Atlanta Braves (-219) vs. Washington Nationals
The last of the three starters who stand out today is Smith-Shawver. He ranks between Martinez and Gausman in terms of median projection but is the most expensive of the trio, making him the worst of the group in terms of Pts/Sal.
That also means that he should come in with the lowest ownership of the group, making him an interesting play for GPPs. The 22-year-old has the best numbers of the bunch at first glance, with a 2.76 ERA and 24.6% strikeout rate. However, both of those marks seem a bit inflated, with his ERA predictors and his swinging strike rate both pointing to some regression.
The Nationals are a fairly average matchup in terms of both run production and strikeout rate, so it’s hard to say if Smith-Shawver will experience some of that regression tonight or at a later date. That means he’s at best a high-upside option and at worst a leverage play against the other two popular starters.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Cincinnati Reds:
The Reds lead the early slate with their massive 5.8-run implied total but are still fairly cheap, all things considered.
They’ve been disappointing through the first two games of their homestand against the White Sox, scoring just three runs combined. However, they at least hit a home run in each game, meaning individual pieces have paid off.
Now they have the best matchup of the series against Bryse Wilson ($5,000). The White Sox starter has a 4.88 ERA, much worse underlying numbers, and a very low strikeout rate. He also has a below-average ground ball rate, which is a problem in Cincinnati. The Reds’ ballpark boosts home runs more than any stadium in the league.
A pitcher who allows a lot of contact and most of those balls to be hit in the air is less than ideal, so we’ll give the Reds one more shot tonight.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
James Wood OF ($5,200) Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves (AJ Smith-Shawver)
Whenever there’s a clear top three pitchers — both in terms of projection and ownership — I want to roster a bat or two against whichever pitcher isn’t in my lineup.
Washington doesn’t give us too many attractive options, but one player stands out in PlateIQ:
That would be Wood, who is tied for seventh in the majors in home runs, while hitting .274 and swiping five bags already this season. He’s a priority for me in lineups without Smith-Shawver.
Luis Robert OF ($4,500) Chicago White Sox at Cincinnati Reds (Nick Martinez)
I’m using a similar logic in my lineups without Martinez, where Robert becomes a priority. The White Sox have a major park upgrade going from Chicago to Cincinnati, good for more than a 30% boost in home runs.
We’ve also got slightly favorable weather for long balls, according to Weather Edge. Unfortunately, the White Sox don’t give us many power options, ranking 28th as a team in home runs this year. Robert is tied for the team lead, so he’s the best option we have.
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Pictured: Elly De La Cruz
Photo Credit: Getty Images
