The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Max Fried ($10,000) New York Yankees (-275) vs. Cleveland Guardians
It’s a “you get what you pay for” kind of slate this evening, with the better pitching options coming with appropriate price tags. The best of those is Fried, who leads the slate in median projection — as well as salary. He has a 1.92 ERA on the season, and while he’s due for a bit of regression, most of his underlying metrics are still very strong.
His 23.4% strikeout rate isn’t particularly impressive, but he’s managed to post some impressive fantasy scores without recording a ton of Ks by lasting deep into games. More importantly, the Guardians strike out more than 25% of the time against lefties, which should boost Fried’s likeliest outcome here a bit.
Plus, they have just a 76 wRC+ against southpaws, giving Fried a chance to pick up plenty of scoreless innings. Cleveland’s 3.3-run implied total is the lowest on the slate, and the Yankees are the heaviest favorite.
On a larger slate with stronger options I’d have some concerns with paying five figures for Fried, but the five-game evening slate doesn’t give us many alternatives. That makes him a solid play in GPPs and cash games alike.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code FL55.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Matthew Liberatore ($8,000) St. Louis Cardinals (-119( vs. Kansas City Royals
Liberatore isn’t projecting especially well in our models — overall or from a Pts/Sal standpoint — but I’m taking a stand on him today.
The Cardinals’ lefty has been very good since moving from the bullpen to a full-time starting role. He’s made 11 starts this year and has a 3.08 ERA while averaging just under six innings pitched per appearance.
He also has a great matchup with the Royals, one of the worst teams in baseball against left-handed pitching. Kansas City has a 62 wRC+ against southpaws, which ranks 28th in all of baseball. They aren’t an especially high strikeout team, but Liberatore’s salary is fairly reasonable. This is also the second game of a doubleheader, so it’s possible some of the Royals’ better bats get the evening game off.
I’m not exactly sure why our projections are so bearish today since the Royals’ 3.7 run total is the third lowest on the evening slate. Either way, that should keep ownership fairly reasonable, making him a fun GPP option.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Framber Valdez ($9,300) Houston Astros (-149) at Pittsburgh Pirates
Truthfully, we could easily switch Valdez and Fried today and it would make just as much sense. They have near identical projections, with Valdez trailing Fried by just .05 points in median projection and leading him by 0.2 in ceiling.
Both top-flight starters are also projecting for north of 50% ownership, so we’ll probably need to pick between them for both salary and ownership reasons — though the number of lineups that pair them is likely to be much smaller than their individual ownership implies.
Valdez has similar numbers to Fried, with a 3.12 ERA and 23.8% strikeout rate. However, he gets an even better matchup, as Pittsburgh ranks 27th in wRC+ against lefties while striking out more than 27% of the time.
It’s that elevated strikeout rate that gives Valdez his upside tonight, and the $700 difference in salary is not insignificant. He’s my preferred overall option over Fried, all things considered.
If you’re craving more MLB DFS or betting tools, be sure to check out one of our most powerful tools on the site—PlateIQ.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the New York Yankees:
One of the problems with paying up for both – or even one – expensive pitcher is that the top stack today is that the best stack by a long shot is the very expensive Yankees.
New York was shut out by the Guardians yesterday, but it’s a safe bet that baseball’s best overall offense turns it around tonight. Guardians starter Slade Cecconi ($7,300) has a 5.28 ERA and 6.61 xERA on the season, making this a very winnable matchup for New York.
Affording them requires making some significant sacrifices elsewhere but also could be well worth it. I’ll try to have at least some exposure myself.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Click here to find out how SimLabs can elevate your MLB DFS game, and watch the video below.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Jose Ramirez 3B ($5,600) Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees (Max Fried)
With two pitchers each likely to come in north of 50% ownership, you’ll get massive leverage rostering hitters against whichever one you fade.
Finding viable options isn’t the easiest, especially with Cleveland having worse numbers against lefties. However, a few options stand out in PlateIQ:
Ramirez is the best, but certainly not only, Guardians hitter who does well against southpaws. A mini stack could be a sneaky way to build a unique lineup when most of the field is rostering Fried.
Ian Happ OF ($4,300) Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals (Jake Irvin)
The Cubs have a similar team total as the Yankees tonight, with the added benefit of their game being on the road and thus ensuring a ninth trip to the plate. Like the Yankees, their price tags collectively are fairly prohibitive, with their two best stacks actually coming in a bit ahead of New York’s in terms of salary.
However, Happ is reasonably priced for his leadoff spot in the lineup and should get plenty of at-bats given the road game and high team total. Fantasy is a volume game, so it’s worth getting exposure to all of those opportunities.
Interested in more MLB action? Check out Fanatics Sportsbook and use our Fanatics Sportsbook promo code.
Pictured: Framber Valdez
Photo Credit: Getty Images
