The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Ryan Weathers (L) $9,100 New York Yankees (-157) vs. Chicago White Sox
The evening slate on Thursday is an extremely tough draw for pitchers. Only one team has a Vegas total below four runs, while four teams are at five or higher, and the bulk of pitchers are projecting pretty poorly, at least relative to their salaries. Honestly, that also includes Weathers, but his 15-point projection is still the highest on the slate.
Yesterday we rostered a Yankees lefty against the White Sox, who are a top-five lineup against lefties in MLB this season. Carlos Rodon turned in a solid, but unspectacular, five-inning, three-run performance. Weathers has worse overall numbers than Rodon on the season, so under normal circumstances I’d be hesitant to pay more than $9,000 for him.
However, with the dearth of better options on the slate, getting roughly 16 points out of Weathers might be enough to win a tournament. As always, we’re not competing against some arbitrary standard of what a winning score should be – we’re competing against a field of players using the same player pool we are.
With the White Sox also striking out at a high rate, there’s a slight case for some upside from Weathers, which is more than we can say about most pitchers today. As should be very apparent, I’m not especially enthusiastic about his chances, but he’s as good an option as we have today.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Sean Manaea (L) $6,500 New York Mets (+105) at Philadelphia Phillies
On the other side of the matchup/talent spectrum lies Sean Manaea. He’s struggled this season, with a 4.78 ERA through 49 total innings pitched, much of it in a bulk/long reliever role following an opener. He made his first actual start of the season last Saturday and was much better, striking out six and allowing two runs over six innings.
I’m not sure if the role change is actually a factor here or if it was just noise. However, what I am sure about is that he has a quietly strong matchup against the Phillies. Philadelphia ranks as a bottom-five lineup against lefties this season with a wRC+ of 86, or 14% lower than the average team.
Given that Manaea’s underlying numbers range from half of a run to a full run lower than his ERA, there’s a solid chance for some regression in this matchup. Even if he performs at his typical level, with a $6,500 price tag on a weak pitching slate, that could be enough. He leads all starters in Pts/Sal by a healthy margin.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Tournament Picks
Martin Perez (L) $6,900 Atlanta Braves (-143) vs. San Francisco Giants
The lone team with a sub-4.00 implied total tonight is the Giants, who travel to Atlanta to face the Braves in one of the few games on the slate with weather favorable to pitchers. I’m not sure how much that is feeding into the low team total or if it’s simply a function of Perez bringing a 2.90 ERA into the contest. I’m not entirely convinced either way, as Perez has worse underlying numbers and the Giants are above-average against lefties, but this is the kind of slate where taking a shot on a thin option makes a lot of sense.
Gage Jump (L) $7,600 Athletics (-141) vs. Los Angeles Angels
The one starter I’m actually somewhat excited to roster is Jump, the A’s rookie who is off to a strong start through four MLB appearances. He has a 3.09 ERA and similar (broadly) underlying numbers and has thrown 23.1 innings across four starts. His 20.2% strikeout rate is uninspiring, but he topped 33% in AAA this year – and draws an Angels team with the highest overall strikeout rate in baseball. This game being in Sacramento makes it risky given the park factors, but he’s a perfect high-risk, high-reward tournament option.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the New York Yankees:
The Yankees seem to be doing just fine without reigning MVP Aaron Judge. They’ve won nine of their last 10 and in their last three games have scored a total of 30 runs. While I’m not expecting them to continue to average double-digit runs per game – or even broach that number tonight – they’re in a very solid spot against the White Sox today.
Chicago starter Sean Burke ($7,000) has a mediocre 4.15 ERA and similar underlying numbers, but his overall profile makes him ill-suited for a game in the Bronx. Yankee Stadium is a top-three home run park in baseball, while Burke has a high fly ball rate and low swinging strike/strikeout rate.
That plays a lot better at home at Rate Field, which provides a slight boost to pitchers overall and against home runs. This game also has massively favorable hitting weather that boosts home runs an additional 15%, which is awful news for a fly-ball pitcher. Plus, the absence of Judge makes the Yankees affordable to stack, which further elevates their case for DFS.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Kyle Schwarber 1B ($6,600) Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets (Sean Manaea)
I discussed the Phillies’ struggles against left-handed pitching in the segment on Manaea. They become pretty clear when looking at PlateIQ, specifically using only this year’s statistics:
What’s also clear is that Schwarber doesn’t share in those struggles, improbably having elite numbers against southpaws despite batting lefty himself. This isn’t just a small-sample-size aberration, either; he’s been better against lefties than righties in every season since 2024.
With all the pitching value on the slate, it’s fairly easy to roster Schwarber and a stack of your choosing, making him a solid option. Plus, Manaea looks to be projecting for some of the highest ownership of any pitcher on the slate, making Schwarber a solid leverage play.
Tyler Soderstrom OF ($5,800) Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels (Jose Soriano)
My personal favorite stack tonight is the Athletics, who lead the slate with their 5.7-run implied total as they host the Angels in Sacramento. They’re taking on Jose Soriano ($10,000), who has a 2.79 ERA this season but ERA indicators all around 4.00. That’s with home games at a slightly pitcher-friendly park, as opposed to the challenging environment tonight in Sacramento.
I mention Soderstrom specifically because Soriano has been consistently worse against left-handed hitting, but the A’s as a whole are an excellent option tonight. They have five lefties in their projected lineup, as well as some right-handed bats that hit fellow righties well. If you can find the salary, which isn’t particularly difficult, they’re a great stack.
Carson Benge OF ($3,600) New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies (Aaron Nola)
Carson Benge is drastically underpriced for his role as the leadoff hitter for a team with a 4.7-run implied total, especially considering the rookie has been one of the few bright spots for the Mets this season, hitting .250 with seven home runs and ten steals through 71 games played. He’ll likely never be a huge power hitter or stolen base threat, but a little bit of both gives him solid daily upside.
Plus, Aaron Nola ($7,500) seems completely broken. The Phillies’ one-time ace had an ERA over six last season, which has “improved” in the mildest sense to 5.86 this season. Most Mets hitters are overpriced for how they’ve actually performed this season, but Benge is a value.
Interested in more MLB action? Check out Polymarket and use our Polymarket promo code.
Pictured: Ryan Weathers
Photo Credit: Imagn
