The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud/Value Pick
Christian Scott (R) $8,300 New York Mets (-143) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Despite having five games compared to the evening slate’s three, the afternoon contest is extremely thin on pitching. With none of the early-game pitchers projecting for even 15 DraftKings points, the top early-slate option in terms of median projection would rank third on the other slate. Of course, with everyone working from the same player pool, we’re all dealing with those limitations.
That top option is Scott, who is projecting about 2.5 points higher than any other arm, with a clear lead in median, ceiling, and Pts/Sal projection. The Cardinals are almost precisely a league-average team against right-handed pitching, so on paper, Scott’s averages this season give us a fairly good idea about his likeliest outcome tonight.
Those averages have been pretty good, with Scott’s ERA at 2.50 through eight starts. He’s been on a short leash, though, with those starts only amounting to 36 innings pitched. With that said, he’s gone at least five innings in his last three, allowing just one run across them. He’ll still need to rely on strikeouts for upside, though, as I wouldn’t expect a 6-plus-inning start here.
While he has a solid 26.3% strikeout rate, I have my doubts about his ability to maintain it. His swinging strike rate is under 10%, which means he’s gotten some massive positive variance. Between that and his slate-leading ownership, my interest for tournaments is limited, but he’s the best on-paper play in terms of likeliest outcomes.
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MLB DFS Tournament Picks
Hunter Dobbins (R) $6,500 St. Louis Cardinals (+118) at New York Mets
Scott’s opponent, Dobbins, has a remarkably similar pitching profile this season. He has a 2.77 ERA that’s well below his underlying metrics and a 26.4% strikeout rate despite a single-digit swinging strike rate. Dobbins’ numbers come from just three appearances (13 innings), which is a bit concerning, but he’s also nearly $2,000 cheaper and has almost no ownership projection. Plus, he has a softer matchup with the Mets having a bottom-three wRC+ against righties. The small sample size makes him risky, but the rewards are high in tournaments.
Tyler Phillips (R) $6,200 Miami Marlins (-117) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona is tied for the lowest team total (with St. Louis) on the board, as they face converted reliever Tyler Phillips of Miami. His two starts have added up to 8.2 innings pitched, with three runs allowed and six strikeouts. That’s nothing special, but his 2.08 ERA overall and ERA predictors all in the 3s are solid. Arizona also ranks 29th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching. I’m not sure if Phillips will stay in the game long enough to post a massive score, but at $6,200, if he can stay anywhere close to Scott, it’s probably enough to win some tournaments.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Texas Rangers:
We use the pre-built tournament rating system to generate top stacks for this article, which factors in overall value largely in the form of projected Plus/Minus. I bring this up to point out that the Rangers are popping partially due to said value, as less than $4,000 per player for the first five hitters in a lineup implied for over five runs is extremely cheap.
However, six of the ten teams on the slate are implied for at least five runs, so we have plenty of options. More importantly, with no real expensive pitchers, the field can roster whichever bats they want – meaning raw upside is the more important factor.
Which isn’t to say Texas doesn’t have it, as they get another nearly ideal hitting weather spot. That’s been the case all series in Kansas City, with ten total runs scored last night. It’s worth noting that even with the extreme weather, the park favors doubles and triples while suppressing home runs. That’s not always a bad thing for stacks – since it allows the following hitters chances to get on the board too – but we’d still prefer dingers when possible.
All things considered, this is a solid option if you need the salary savings, but that might not be necessary for most rosters today.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Bobby Witt Jr. SS ($5,900) Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers (Kumar Rocker)
The speedy Witt has the perfect profile for the park/weather conditions at Kauffman Stadium tonight. He clearly has the ability to stretch would-be singles into doubles and doubles into triples, plus his stolen base ability (24 through 68 games this season) gives him a path to upside without relying on home runs.
He’s the leadoff hitter for the home Royals, who are implied for 5.5 runs tonight, and he also has the best median and ceiling projections of any hitter tonight. Given the loose salaries, it’s also easy to fit him in your lineups, making him an easy click in all contest types.
Michael Busch 1B ($5,300) Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies (Ryan Feltner)
That we’ve made it this far in the article without cause to mention the Coors Field game is a bit surprising, but when the majority of teams on the slate have similarly high totals, Coors doesn’t stand out as much. The weather isn’t nearly as favorable to hitters there as some other parks – but we’re still showing a slight boost over the already-elite Coors park factor.
Busch is probably the best combination of value and upside for the Cubs, with elite numbers against righties. He stands out a bit in PlateIQ, but the abundance of green here shows why the Cubs are a great stack overall.
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Pictured: Christian Scott
Photo Credit: Imagn
