The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Yusei Kikuchi ($8,300) Los Angeles Angels (-140) vs. Seattle Mariners
We have just a four-game slate on Thursday, with most teams in the league getting the travel day off and one game happening before the slate starts. On top of that, we don’t have any truly frontlinestarters on the slate — with one possible exception we’ll discuss later. Combined, that makes it hard to find pitching options.
The projection leader is the Angels’ Kikuchi, and he’s the only starter with a median number over 15. With the field dealing with the same player pool as the rest of us, that number doesn’t matter too much, but it’s still somewhat disconcerting.
Kikuchi has a solid 3.13 ERA and 24.4% strikeout rate on the season. The bad news is most of his ERA indicators are north of 4.00, so he’s been at least somewhat lucky. That’s slightly concerning against a solid Mariners lineup, though they’re about 10% worse against lefties like Kikuchi than righties.
With his reasonable price tag and the lack of better options, it’s hard to get away from rostering Kikuchi tonight. I’m not exactly excited about it at north of 50% projected ownership, but we have to work with what the slate gives us.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Luis Severino ($6,000) Athletics (+105) at Houston Astros
The only player with a better Pts/Sal projection than Kikuchi is the Athletics Severino. The former Yankees ace has never been able to recapture the magic from his peak in the late teens and comes into the game with an ERA of 5.10 and just a 15.9% strikeout rate.
The thesis for Severino tonight is that his ERA is inflated by his home ballpark. The A’s temporary stadium in Sacramento has a Park Factor similar to Coors Field, but they’re on the road tonight in Houston. Severino’s ERA on the road this season is a very strong 3.10.
Of course, ballpark factors don’t explain the decline in his strikeout rate, which is actually lower on the road. Due to that, we shouldn’t expect massive upside, but a solid start at his $6,000 price tag is plenty on the small slate.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Sonny Gray ($9,500) St. Louis Cardinals (-149) vs. San Diego Padres
Based strictly on their performance this season, Gray is probably the best pitcher on the slate. He has an ERA just over 4.00, but xFIP and SIERA marks are both a full run lower, suggesting he’s actually been better than that. Plus, his 27.2% strikeout rate is very strong and gives him more upside than the other arms tonight.
The problems are twofold. First, the matchup with San Diego is somewhat challenging. The Padres rank just below average in run production against righties, but they strike out at the third-lowest rate in the majors. When the big appeal for Gray is strikeout potential, that’s an annoying hurdle to overcome.
The other issue is his price tag. At $9,500, it’s considerably higher than any other pitcher on the slate, despite his projection lagging behind Kikuchi. That problem is more easily solvable by finding budget hitters, but it’s still worth considering.
Since his ownership also lags well behind Kikuchi, he’s an excellent large-field GPP option. However, I’d stick to Kikuchi and Severino for tighter builds.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
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The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Angels:
The Angels don’t quite qualify as a cheap stack that makes getting up to Gray easy, but they’re not especially expensive.
They also lead the slate with their 4.9-run implied total, making them a fairly obvious stacking choice. They’re taking on Logan Evans ($7,000) of the Mariners, who has a 3.81 ERA on the season but a 5.55 xERA.
With all of his ERA indicators in the mid-fours or higher, it seems fairly likely that the rookie is due for some negative regression. Particularly when his home ballpark is the best pitcher’s park in baseball. Evans’ ERA on the road is just over 5.00, which is a solid sign for the Angels offense.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Spencer Torkelson 1B ($4,100) Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Eric Lauer)
Detroit, on the other hand, is a very cheap stack, with a lot going for them tonight. We’ve got excellent hitting weather in Detroit, with a forecast that boosts home runs by a whopping 38% and overall scoring by 19%, according to Weather Edge.
The Tigers also hit lefties well, with a top-five wRC+ and plenty of strong candidates visible in PlateIQ:
Torkelson is the best — though certainly not only — of those.
Cam Smith OF ($4,000) Houston Astros vs. Athletics (Severino)
With Severino likely to garner fairly high ownership tonight, I’ll be looking to roster hitters against him (and Kikuchi) in lineups that they don’t appear in. My favorite option on the Astros side is rookie outfielder Cam Smith.
While Smith’s price tag has risen sharply in recent weeks, he’s still relatively affordable for the leadoff hitter in Houston’s lineup. With Houston’s team total sitting in the mid-fours, there should be some production, and he’s likely to be a part of it.
Mostly it’s about the leverage, though, particularly on a four-game slate with heavy ownership condensing around two pitchers.
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Pictured: Yusei Kikuchi
Photo Credit: Imagn
