The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Tarik Skubal (L) $10,200 Detroit Tigers (-228) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
We got a strong performance from the Tigers’ No. 5 starter, Casey Mize, yesterday, as he struck out seven over six innings of one-run ball against the Brewers. Now the rotation has flipped back over to the top, where reigning Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal gets a chance to secure the series win for the hometown Tigers.
Skubal has been his usual self this season, with a 2.08 ERA and 28% strikeout rate through five starts. He’s also averaging a bit over six innings per appearance, which further bolsters his upside. The Brewers are implied for just 2.9 runs, easily the lowest mark on the slate. They’re an average offensive team overall, but considerably worse against southpaws, with their wRC+ dropping 14 points compared to their total number.
Add in some pitcher-friendly weather in Detroit, and it’s easy to see why Skubal is likely to improve upon the performance from Mize yesterday, making him clearly the top pitching play on the slate. That will come with similarly heavy ownership, which is a bit of an issue on a smaller slate, but I prefer to get unique somewhere else.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Tyler Glasnow (R) $8,700 Los Angeles Dodgers (-160) at San Francisco Giants
The other popular pitching option today is Tyler Glasnow of the Dodgers. He and the Dodgers are solid favorites in San Francisco, with the Giants’ 3.2-run implied total just barely higher than the Brewers’ mark. With no other team implied for less than four runs, that makes Tarik Skubal and Glasnow stand out in a big way this afternoon.
Glasnow’s overall numbers this season compare favorably with Skubal’s. While his ERA is about a run higher, he also has a better strikeout rate (30.5%) and a better xERA than the Tigers’ ace, suggesting he’s been a bit unlucky. Considering he’s $1,500 cheaper and there are some expensive hitters we’d like to roster, he’s an interesting GPP pivot.
Plus, it’s an excellent matchup with a Giants team that ranks 29th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching. This game also features similar weather to Detroit’s, both of which favor pitchers. Most rosters today will pair Glasnow with Skubal, but rostering Glasnow with a cheaper option could be an interesting way to get some leverage.
He trails only Skubal in median and ceiling projection while featuring the best Pts/Sal mark on the slate.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Matt Waldron (R) $5,500 San Diego Padres (-155) at Colorado Rockies
I’m willing to take some bigger risks on smaller slates, so getting a starter against the Rockies for just $5,500 certainly has my attention. Of course, that starter allowed six runs over only 3.2 innings in his first start this season and has to deal with the park factor at Coors Field, which is why it’s so risky. Still, the salary flexibility and unique construction offered by Matt Waldron could be the key in GPPs, even if he only scores a handful of points. He ranks third in Pts/Sal projection behind Skubal and Glasnow.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the San Diego Padres:
The Padres have improbably scored just four runs over two games at Coors Field this series but have one more chance to turn things around Thursday afternoon. They’re taking on Ryan Feltner ($6,000), who brings a 6.00 ERA into the contest, with underlying numbers even worse.
Since those ERA predictors adjust for park factors, Feltner’s bad numbers aren’t a product of Coors Field – he’s earned them the hard way. It’s hard to see the Padres failing again in this spot, and their 6.2-run implied total is more than a run higher than any other team today.
Of course, they’re expensive, which makes them hard to fit with both Skubal and Glasnow. That means taking some chances – like pairing them with Waldron and hoping for some correlation on his win bonus.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Seiya Suzuki OF ($4,100) Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Cristopher Sanchez)
I don’t expect the Cubs to be popular today, since they’re somewhat high priced and have a tough matchup against the Phillies’ Cristopher Sanchez ($9,000), who has a 1.59 ERA through five starts this season. However, he’s a lefty, which plays to the Cubs’ strengths, and they come into the game with a 135 wRC+ vs. LHP, second best in the league.
You can see how many of their hitters have strong numbers against lefties in PlateIQ:
Suzuki stands out as the top option thanks to his power, but there are plenty of choices in their lineup. Plus, the weather (mainly wind) in Wrigley today projects for a 47%(!) increase in home runs and a 23% increase in total scoring. That’s based on a 102-game sample size, which is fairly strong, so I want plenty of bats in this one.
Adolis Garcis OF ($2,800) Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs (Edward Cabrera)
Sticking with the theme of rostering hitters at Wrigley tonight, we have the Phillies’ Adolis Garcia. If his cleanup role in their lineup holds, he’s a massive value at just $2,800. Philly has a solid 4.8-run total and a winnable matchup, so cheap exposure to their offense is an excellent strategy.
He’s a key piece if stacking Philadelphia today but also fits nicely around the Padres stack that has an open outfield spot and could use the salary relief. Either way, I’ll have some exposure to him and pair him with team/game stacks as much as possible.
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Pictured: Tarik Skubal
Photo Credit: Imagn
