The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Garrett Crochet ($10,300) Boston Red Sox (-153) at Milwaukee Brewers
We’ve got a decently sized afternoon slate on Memorial Day, with seven games to choose from. As you’d imagine, there are also some solid pitching options. The best among those is Crochet, who leads the slate in median and ceiling projection with a correspondingly high salary.
Crochet has been worth it this season, with an ERA under 2.00 and a 28% strikeout rate. That strikeout rate is actually a big step down from his 35% mark last season but still a borderline elite mark. He’s unlikely to improve upon that number against the Brewers since they strike out at a below-average rate against lefties, but he can still score well in DFS.
Milwaukee is a bottom-five team in wRC+, and this game being in Milwaukee instead of Boston means about 20% less scoring based on each stadium’s Park Factors. That’s a solid recipe for Crochet to have a long, low-scoring start.
He’s thrown at least seven innings in three of his last five appearances, all of which were good for at least 23 DraftKings points. Another game like that is probably enough at his salary, although an outlier performance from someone else could change that. Either way, he’s a rock-solid cash game play with some GPP appeal.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Jameson Taillon ($8,600) Chicago Cubs (-355) vs. Colorado Rockies
Not only does Taillon get the privilege of facing the Rockies away from Coors Field, but he also gets them on a day where the weather is extremely favorable for pitchers. According to WeatherEdge, the strong winds at Wrigley this afternoon lower scoring by about 15% historically. That’s a big part of why the Rockies’ 2.9 run total is the lowest on the slate.
Well, that and the fact that they’re the worst overall offense in baseball by a wide margin. Their 72 wRC+ against righties is eight points lower than any other team, and their 26.5% strikeout rate is the second highest. While Taillon has an ERA just over 4 and a strikeout rate below 20%, a matchup with Colorado should help to boost both numbers.
Notably, Taillon’s salary hasn’t really adjusted with the circumstance, making him obviously underpriced on DraftKings. He and the Cubs have by far the best Vegas data, but four pitchers on the slate have higher salaries. Taillon is the clear leader in Pts/Sal projection on Monday afternoon.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Jaco deGrom ($10,000) Texas Rangers (-155) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Crochet and Taillon are the clear leaders in ownership projection, with deGrom rounding out the top three. While the Rangers righty isn’t exactly a contrarian option, he’s likely to be somewhat less popular than the other two, making him an interesting GPP pivot.
deGrom looks every bit his old self in his first healthy season with the Rangers, with a 2.33 ERA and 27.7% strikeout rate through 10 starts. He’s also averaging just under six innings per outing, with more innings this year than the last two seasons combined. There’s even an argument that he’s due some positive strikeout regression, as his 15% swinging strike rate is fourth best in the majors. Two of the other three pitchers with a 15% or higher swinging strike rate have strikeout rates over 35%.
However, the matchup with the Blue Jays will make that tough. They rank bottom five in strikeout rate against righties on the season. They’re also a slightly below-average offense by wRC+, though, so deGrom is unlikely to be a total letdown.
Whether he can do enough to justify his five-figure salary is up for debate, but given that he’s both cheaper and less popular than Crochet, he’s a strong GPP play.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the New York Mets:
There are two teams on the slate that stand out with totals in the mid-fives, the Mets and the Cubs. The top Mets stack is about $3,000 cheaper than the Cubs equivalent, though, plus the weather at Wrigley is certainly a concern for the Cubs.
The Mets are at home with slightly positive weather for bats, although that’s more or less cancelled out by the Park Factor at Citi Field. Either way, it’s a much better situation than the Cubs have.
Plus, the Mets have a great matchup with their former teammate Adrian Houser ($5,800), who had a 5.84 ERA as a Met last season. Houser threw six scoreless innings in his 2024 debut last week, but his numbers over the past few seasons are probably more relevant.
While the Mets stack isn’t exactly cheap, they make it possible to get to the top pitchers on the slate as well, so they’re a strong overall option.
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Click here to find out how SimLabs can elevate your MLB DFS game, and watch the video below.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Riley Greene OF ($4,700) Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants (Hayden Birdsong)
Something I noticed today while perusing PlateIQ was the relatively extreme platoon splits for Hayden Birdsong ($7,800). The Giants righty has had a tough time getting lefties out this season:
That’s good news for the Tigers in general, since three of their first four hitters bat from the left side. Greene is the best hitter among them, but there are some solid options depending on your salary and positional needs.
Adley Rutschman C ($4,000) Baltimore Orioles vs. St. Louis Cardinals
We’ve got a 10-run total in the battle of the birds today, with both teams implied for just under five runs. The Orioles’ first five hitters come in at less than $4,000 per player on average — far cheaper than the Cardinals’ equivalent. That makes them a solid stacking option, particularly if you’re trying to play both $10,000 pitchers.
Rutschman has been somewhat disappointing offensively this season, but he still has the second-highest median projection at catcher. The Cardinals’ Ivan Herrera ($5,700) is the only player at the position projecting better, but at a huge price premium. That makes Rutschman a solid standalone option or a foundational piece as part of an Orioles stack.
Brendan Donovan 2B/OF ($4,900) St. Louis Cardinals at Baltimore Orioles (Charlie Morton)
The Cards do have the highest implied total of any visiting team today, making them worth considering as a stack. My favorite single option is Donovan, for a few different reasons. His multi-position eligibility makes him easy to work around nearly any stack, being a big one.
More importantly, his salary hasn’t really risen enough to reflect his performance this season. He’s hitting .328 on the season and is a top-30 hitter in baseball by wRC+. While I’d prefer a bit more power or speed upside, at a minimum he should have some opportunities to score or drive in runs.
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Pictured: Garrett Crochet
Photo Credit: Imagn
