The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Luis Castillo ($9,500) Seattle Mariners (-205) at Chicago White Sox
The Mariner’s Castillo is actually second in our median and ceiling projections, behind a pitcher that more logically counts as a value play. However, Castillo is one of the better plays on paper, as he travels to Chicago, where the White Sox have a 3.4-run implied total.
Castillo has been somewhat disappointing this season, but it’s not due to his ability to prevent runs. He has a solid 3.65 ERA, which is in line with the numbers he’s posted the past few seasons since coming to the Mariners. The problem has been the lack of strikeouts.
His strikeout rate is just 18.2%, well below the mid-20s range we typically see him in. However, he’s due for some positive regression. His swinging strike rate of 10.8% implies a strikeout rate about 5% higher. More importantly, the White Sox strike out at a top-ten rate against righties.
I’m a bit worried about Castillo away from home, since his ERA on the road is an ugly 5.78. However, this is a much easier matchup than he’s had in previous road appearances, so he’ll likely be fine. He ranks second in median and ceiling projections on the slate.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Cristopher Sanchez ($8,000) Philadelphia Phillies (-250) at Colorado Rockies
We’re getting a fairly cheap price on Sanchez tonight despite his consecutive 20-point performances due to this game being in Colorado. Given the state of the Rockies’ offense this season, that’s not the obvious stay-away spot it used to be. Colorado has the worst wRC+ as a team in baseball and is even worse against lefties than righties.
Beyond that, Sanchez is fairly well suited for a game at Coors. His ground ball rate is 14% above the league average, and he has an excellent 28.4% strikeout rate. Limiting balls in play and in the air removes a lot of the issues with the thin air in Colorado.
Colorado’s four-run total isn’t as low as we typically want from the top pitcher on the slate, but it’s not terrible either. Plus, the Phillies being huge favorites increases his chance of the four-point win bonus considerably.
With his very strong strikeout potential, Sanchez could allow a few runs and still score reasonably well. His median projection is more than a full point higher than anyone else on the slate. He also has the best Pts/Sal projection by a wide margin. That makes him a very strong option for GPPs and cash games alike.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Sonny Gray ($9,000) St. Louis Cardinals (-158) vs. Detroit Tigers
The market obviously believes in Gray, since they’ve made the Cardinals a moderate favorite at home tonight against the Tigers. Detroit has the best record in baseball and a top-five offense both overall and against righties.
The old adage is that good pitching beats good hitting, though, and that’s the type of matchup we have tonight. While Gray’s ERA is 4.50, his SIERA is a full run lower, and he’s consistently posted ERAs in the low-to-mid threes for a few seasons. He also has a solid 24.8% strikeout rate and leads our models in K Prediction.
What makes Gray especially intriguing as a GPP option is his likely low ownership. That’s due to the uncertainty around the weather in St. Louis tonight. The current report has this game starting without issue, but storms rolling in around mid-game.
They could hold out long enough that Gray gets a relatively normal-length start in — or they could end his night early. That will keep plenty of DFS players away from this game. Be sure to keep an eye on the free MLB Weather Report as we approach lock.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies:

On the other side of the Coors Field game, we have the Phillies offense. They obviously aren’t coming at a discount tonight but could certainly pay off their price tag with their slate-leading 6.3 run total.
They’re facing Rockies’ lefty Kyle Freeland ($5,000), who brings a 6.15 ERA into the contest. His underlying numbers are considerably better, but his ERA is inflated due to pitching at Coors. Since he’s at home tonight, it’s not exactly a regression situation.
He’s also a low strikeout pitcher with a 16.9% rate, which doesn’t help him here. Philadelphia hits lefties fairly well, with even Harper and Schwarber being on the right side of their wOBA splits in this lefty-on-lefty matchup.
If you can find the salary to get them there, they’re an obvious strong play. You probably will have to pivot from one or two of their best bats, but it’s a good starting point.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.

Heliot Ramos OF ($4,100) San Francisco Giants vs. Kansas City Royals (Kris Bubic)
The bats in this game won’t get much attention, with a lefty-on-lefty pitching matchup and both teams struggling to various degrees against southpaws.
However, there’s a notable exception on the Giants, as we can see in PlateIQ:

That’s Ramos, who has a career .938 OPS against left-handed pitching. He’s also reasonably priced for his leadoff spot in the lineup and should be fairly unpopular. He’s an interesting contrarian play.
Yandy Diaz 1B/3B ($4,300) Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros (Colton Gordon)
Diaz is another player on the strong side of his platoon splits against a lefty pitcher tonight. He and the Rays are taking on Colton Gordon ($6,000), who is making just his second big league appearance tonight. While Diaz has struggled against lefties this season, he’s a career .302 batter against them.
Gordon is a former eighth-round pick who projects as a below-average MLB player and gave up three runs in 4.1 innings in his MLB debut. That makes this a solid matchup for Tampa in general, and they have a 4.9-run implied total at home tonight. I’m interested in stacking them as a budget alternative to Philly, but it starts with Diaz at the top.
Tyler Soderstrom OF ($4,500) Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels (Jose Soriano)
It’s a small sample size in the grand scheme of things, but through the early part of the season the Athletics’ temporary home of Sutter Health Park has been one of the best scoring environments in baseball. There have been 25% more runs there than in an average park, which puts it roughly even with Coors Field based on the past three seasons in Denver.
Which helps explain the A’s 5.1-run total tonight against the Angels. That’s one of the best marks on the board, and a big part of that is due to the presence of 23-year-old Tyler Soderstrom. He has 10 home runs on the year, already eclipsing his mark from a year ago.
The A’s are an interesting stack choice in general, but he’s my favorite one-off of the bunch.
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Pictured: Luis Castillo
Photo Credit: Getty Images