The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Jack Flaherty ($9,000) Detroit Tigers (-205) at Chicago White Sox
Jack Flaherty has backslid a bit this season, with his ERA rising to just under 4.00 — with a similar xERA — after being a low-threes pitcher in 2024 for the Tigers and Dodgers. However, those are still solid numbers, especially in the context of a six-game slate in which ten teams are implied for at least four runs.
The White Sox’s 3.6-run implied total is the second lowest on the slate, which is a good sign for Flaherty. Chicago is the second-worst offense in baseball against right-handed pitching this season, so some of that is certainly driven by the matchup.
While run prevention has been a weakness, strikeouts have not. Flaherty is still striking out just under 30% of the hitters he faces this season, with a solid swinging strike rate. Chicago also strikes out at a top ten rate, which further bolsters Flaherty’s upside.
He’s the third-most expensive pitcher on the slate but leads the day in median and ceiling projection, as well as Pts/Sal. All of that will obviously come with some heavy ownership, but it’s probably worth eating the chalk with everything pointing his way.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Aaron Civale ($6,000) Milwaukee Brewers (-101) at Cincinnati Reds
The only pitcher approaching Flaherty’s Pts/Sal projection is Civale, but he’s an extremely risky option. The Brewers’ righty is making just his fourth start of the season but has allowed eight runs through 12 innings of work. That’s a bit misleading though — since five of those runs came in his season debut against the Yankees before he went on the injured list.
Since coming back, he’s allowed three runs across nine innings while picking up seven strikeouts. Far from elite numbers, but certainly acceptable given his price tag. Those starts came against Boston and Pittsburgh, with the Reds offense being roughly in between those two teams.
What makes this somewhat scary is that the game is in Cincinnati, the best home run park in baseball. Civale allows plenty of fly balls and doesn’t strike out many hitters, so this one could get ugly in a hurry with a few long balls.
Still, it’s a risk worth taking due to the salary flexibility provided, as we don’t need a huge score for him at $6,000. I’m probably staying away in cash games and targeting cheaper bats, but it’s an interesting GPP build.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Logan Webb ($9,700) San Francisco Giants (-177) vs. San Diego Padres
Based on our ownership projections, Webb appears to be the odd man out among the $9K+ pitchers, a group that also includes Joe Ryan ($10,000). While we’re projecting Ryan about two points better, I actually prefer Webb tonight.
The Vegas data is on his side, with the Padres implied for a slate low of 3.1 runs. That tells you what the market thinks of the matchup, especially relative to Ryan — the A’s are implied for an additional run tonight.
The matchup with the Padres sounds tougher than it actually is, as they rank 15th in wRC+ against right handed pitching. Plus, this game is in one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball, in San Francisco, with weather that further limits scoring by about 5%.
He’s an elite pivot from Ryan — or Flaherty — with his ownership projecting at around half of the other two top arms today. That’s more than worth giving up a couple of points of projection, especially on a smaller slate where staying unique is of extra importance.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
One of the reasons I’m not interested in taking a “value” pitcher in cash games tonight is due to all of the reasonably priced stacks available. It’s fairly easy to save salary on hitters while still getting exposure to plenty of likely production, as Boston demonstrates.
They lead the slate with a 5.3-run implied total tonight against the Angels. Despite that, their first four hitters cost just over $4,000 per bat.
They’re taking on lefty Tyler Anderson ($7,200) of the Angels, which puts Boston on the stronger side of their platoon splits. They’re also at home in hitter-friendly Fenway Park, which also features favorable (7% boost to scoring) hitting weather tonight.
Everything is pointing their direction, so I wouldn’t overthink this one.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Tyler Soderstrom 1B/OF ($4,100) Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins (Joe Ryan)
If the high ownership projection on Ryan holds, I want to increase my leverage against him by rostering some A’s hitters. They’re a top-ten offense against righties by wRC+, and they play in what’s effectively a little-league stadium that has boosted scoring 25% on the season.
The best numbers against righties on their team belong to Soderstrom, as is obvious in PlateIQ:
We got the added bonus of Ryan being slightly worse against lefties, and mid-80s temperature with winds blowing out to center field. He might not be the only A’s hitter in my lineups, but he’ll be the starting point.
Kerry Carpenter OF ($4,200) Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox (Jonathan Cannon)
Tigers/White Sox also has a forecast that boosts scoring a bit, with about a 6% boost to bats from the warm temperatures in Chicago tonight. Most of that should come from the Detroit side, with Carpenter projected to lead off their lineup.
The lefty is hitting .268 with ten home runs this season and has a favorable matchup against Jonathan Cannon ($6,800). Cannon has a 4.15 ERA, and his wOBA against lefties is about 30 points higher than against righties.
Carpenter is a solid value for the Tigers at the top of the lineup.
Trevor Larnach OF ($4,000) Minnesota Twins at Athletics (Luis Severino)
I’m also interested in stacking the Twins tonight, in large part because they also benefit from playing in Sacramento. They have a solid 5.1-run total and similarly affordable price tags as the Red Sox, but even better hitting conditions.
It’s not the easiest matchup against Luis Severino ($7,000) but his 3.89 ERA is nothing to avoid either. Larnach is the best combination of projection and value, with a reasonable salary and the #2 spot in the lineup.
Plus, Severino has been noticeably worse against lefties both this season and in his career. Their batting average is about 30 points higher against him historically and 40 points this year. Larnach is the only left-handed hitter in the Twins’ first four lineup spots.
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Pictured: Jack Flaherty
Photo Credit: Getty Images
