The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Chad Patrick ($8,600) Milwaukee Brewers (-180) v.s Pittsburgh Pirates
Despite having eight games to choose from on Monday night, it’s an extremely tough slate for pitchers. Much of that is due to the heat wave across the country—warm weather is good for offense, a theme we’ll be revisiting throughout this breakdown.
There are just three pitchers projected for more than 15 points today, with two of those three priced at $9,600 or higher. The third is Patrick, who’s still a bit overpriced for his projection in a vacuum, but it a solid option relative to the rest of the slate.
The 26-year-old rookie has been a pleasant surprise this year, with a 3.32 ERA as a starter through 15 starts. His 22.6% strikeout rate isn’t anything to get excited about, but it’s enough for a bit of upside. More importantly, he’s taking on the 28th-ranked offense of the Pirates, whose 3.7-run total is the lowest on the slate.
Patrick is third in median and ceiling projections but considerably cheaper than the players above him, making him the best overall option on the slate.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Eduardo Rodriguez ($7,300) Arizona Diamondbacks (-137) at Chicago White Sox
Eduardo Rodriguez is due for some serious regression. The veteran lefty comes into the week with an ugly 5.93 ERA. However, his xERA is 3.92, with his other ERA predictors sitting right around the 4.00 mark.
A matchup with the White Sox is certainly a strong opportunity to realize some of that regression. While they’re slightly better against left-handed pitching, Chicago’s 84 wRC+ and 26.3% strikeout rate against southpaws still make them one of the better possible matchups.
This one is a bit risky because Rodriguez is a fly ball pitcher and the 90+ degree temperatures in Chicago certainly help the ball carry further. However, he’s also fairly cheap on a slate where we aren’t expecting much from any starting pitchers.
If the best scores from starters are in the mid-teens, the best plays will be the ones that cost the least. Rodriguez could certainly fit the bill, and he leads the slate in Pts/Sal projection.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Mitchell Parker ($6,800) Washington Nationals (+144) at San Diego Padres
I’m going way off the board here with my pick of Parker. At first glance it seems like a tough choice—the Padres are implied for just under five runs and are thought of as one of the better offenses in baseball.
However, they’ve struggled heavily against lefties. They rank 20th in wRC+ against southpaws, which is one spot below the much-maligned White Sox. Petco Park is one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball, with about an 8% reduction in runs scored on average. On top of that, the forecast is for temperatures in the 60s, unlike most games on the slate where hot weather serves as a boost to bats.
Parker hasn’t been great this year, with a 4.59 ERA so far. He’s had some solid moments but has been wildly inconsistent. However, that’s a decent profile for GPPs, especially considering he’s projecting for around 3% ownership.
On a slate where huge pitching scores are unlikely to occur, saving a ton of salary and ownership with one of your starters might be the best path to taking down a GPP. I’m staying far away from Parker in cash games, but he’s an interesting large tournament option.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the New York Yankees:
The Yankees have an interleague series in Cincinnati this week, which is a scary thought if you’re a Reds pitcher.
The Yankees rank second in baseball with 118 home runs on the season, and Great American Ball Park is the best home run stadium in the MLB. Over the last three seasons, there have been 28% more homers in Cincinnati than the average MLB stadium. It’s also 95 degrees there, which obviously helps baseballs fly even further.
Plus, the Yankees are even better against lefties than righties, so Nick Lodolo ($8,000) likely has a tough go of it tonight.
With all of the cheap pitchers on the slate, it’s not even especially difficult to afford the Yankees bats. They’re an elite option today.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Seiya Suzuki OF ($5,200) Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals (Matthew Liberatore)
On a day where there’s excellent hitting weather across baseball, the best game for bats is in St. Louis. According to Weather Edge, the conditions in St. Louis boost scoring nearly 20% and home runs 17%.
The visiting Cubs are taking on lefty Matthew Liberatore ($8,200). He’s been solid with a 4.02 ERA, and the Cubs are fairly lefty-heavy at the top of their lineup. However, one of their hitters has elite numbers against southpaws that stand out in PlateIQ:
Suzuki is an interesting pivot from the Yankees outfield trio, and arguably has similar upside at an ownership discount.
Gavin Lux 3B ($3,100) Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees (Allan Winans)
A large part of my interest in the Yankees is due to the ballpark and weather they’re playing in tonight. Obviously, the Reds get to enjoy those same benefits as the home team. Plus, they have an even better pitching matchup against Allan Winans ($7,000). This is the 2025 debut for Winans, who has a 7.20 ERA through his eight previous MLB starts.
Lux is the best value for the Reds, thanks to his #2 spot in their lineup and his cheap price tag. I want as many hitters from this game as possible, and his salary makes it easier to load up at other spots.
Brendan Donovan 2B ($3,700) St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs (Ben Brown)
We touched on the scoring environment for the Cubs tonight in the Suzuki section, but of course the Cardinals will benefit from those as well. They’re facing Cubs starter Ben Brown ($7,700), who has an ERA on the wrong side of 5.00 this season.
He’s also allowed lefties to hit .299 against him, which led to my interest in Donovan. The Cardinals leadoff man is a lefty and is somewhat underpriced relative to his 7.6 DraftKings PPG average. He could easily exceed that mark tonight with the favorable conditions and matchup.
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Pictured: Aaron Judge
Photo Credit: Imagn
