The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud/Value Pick
Tarik Skubal (L) $10,700 Los Angeles Dodgers (-325) vs. Kansas City Royals
The biggest name to be moved at the trade deadline was two-time Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubal, whom the Tigers shipped to the Dodgers in exchange for some prospects. Already favored to win another World Series, the Dodgers seemingly put themselves over the top by acquiring arguably the best pitcher in baseball – while raising further questions about a potential salary cap and/or work stoppage in 2027.
Skubal’s first start in Dodger blue wasn’t exactly what they’d hoped for, as he struck out “only” six batters while allowing six base runners and a pair of runs over six innings. For nearly any other pitcher, a WHIP of 1.00, an ERA of 3.00, and a 9.00 K/9 would be a solid day, but by Skubal’s standards, it was a bit of a disappointment.
That start, of course, came against the Cubs, who have the best wRC+ against left-handed pitching in baseball. Tonight, Skubal takes on the Royals, who rank 17th in that category. They’re a slightly below-average team against southpaws, and Skubal’s average game this season is a 2.89 ERA and 10.69 K/9. That’s worked out to a bit over 22 DK points per game, and our current median projection is a bit above that.
With no other starter projecting for even 19 points, Skubal is the clear leader in median and ceiling projection. In fact, he leads in Pts/Sal projection too, making him the clear best play on paper for all reasons outside of ownership.
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MLB DFS Tournament Picks
Reid Detmers (L) $8,700 Los Angeles Angels (-100) vs. Texas Rangers
Both starters in the Angels/Rangers game are in a similar position as boom-or-bust options. That’s because both the Angels and Rangers are above-average offenses against left-handed pitching, but they also strike out at top-five rates. Detmers’ own numbers contribute to that, with an ERA on the wrong side of 4.00 but a 28% strikeout rate. To his credit, his ERA predictors are in the mid-threes, so there’s an argument for some positive regression on top of the strikeout upside.
Mackenzie Gore (L) $8,500 Texas Rangers (-120) at Los Angeles Angels
The Angels strike out at the highest rate in the majors against southpaws while also featuring a wRC+ 15 points lower than the Rangers. They still rank in the top half of the league at 14th, but they’re essentially middle of the road. That probably explains why Vegas is favoring Gore and the Rangers despite Gore having slightly worse numbers than Detmers on the season. It’s close on both accounts, but I slightly prefer Gore when factoring in 10% lower ownership.
Dean Kremer (R) $6,200 Minnesota Twins (+102) vs. Baltimore Orioles
Dean Kremer trails only Skubal in Pts/Sal projection at a very cheap price tag, making him an interesting salary saver, particularly in cash lineups that will certainly also feature the Dodgers’ new ace. Kremer isn’t good – he has a 5.93 ERA and 23.3% strikeout rate – but neither is Baltimore, who traded Adley Rutschman at the deadline as part of a fire sale. That sale included Kremer, which also makes this a revenge game, though I’m not sure how much that matters.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
Arizona gets to face the Rockies tonight, which always makes them an interesting stack. Unfortunately, the game is in Arizona, not Colorado – though Chase Field is also a top-three ballpark for hitters over the past three seasons.
The real appeal to facing the Rockies is their dreadful pitching staff. Tonight they’re represented by Gabriel Hughes ($6,500), who has actually been solid by Rockies standards, but he’s still a rookie with just six MLB starts under his belt, and he had an ERA over 5.00 in AAA.
I’m not personally all that excited about Arizona tonight, but they have a five-run implied total in what should be a good matchup, and they’re reasonably priced across the stack, with an average cost of about $4,500 per hitter. That makes them a solid value, which explains their status as the top stack.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Ryan Vilade 1B/OF ($3,300) Tampa Bay Rays at Athletics (Jacob Lopez)
My personal favorite team to stack tonight is the Rays. They’re in Sacramento, and I’m a sucker for a park-factor upgrade, as Sutter Health Park adds about 12% to scoring compared to the Rays’ home at Tropicana Field. The problem is Tampa is much worse against left-handed pitching, and they’re facing southpaw Jacob Lopez ($5,500) tonight.
Lopez comes into the contest with an overall ERA over 5.00 and a home ERA of 6.61, so I turned to PlateIQ to identify some Rays hitters who do well against lefties:
Vilade stands out, especially at his price tag, but I’ll be playing mini stacks featuring Junior Caminero ($6,400) and Yandy Diaz ($5,100) as well.
Tyler Soderstrom OF ($5,000) Athletics vs. Tampa Bay Rays (Freddy Peralta)
On the A’s side of the coin, my favorite option is Tyler Soderstrom, the A’s lefty slugger who is hitting over .250 with 11 home runs at home this season. Much of that is due to the matchup with Tampa’s Freddy Peralta ($6,700), who has an ERA over five this season and has been somewhat worse against left-handed pitching.
$5,000 is a little steep for Soderstrom based on his numbers, but he’s (tied for) the cheapest outfielder projecting for double-digit points tonight, giving him a solid mix of upside and value.
Jimmy Crooks C ($2,500) St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Andrew Painter)
Cardinals catcher Jimmy Crooks profiled as a defense-first catcher with solid power as a prospect, and so far he’s fulfilled the first half of that deal. His .340 slugging percentage isn’t anything to write home about, and his .184 average this season is downright terrible – though four home runs in 40 games is reasonably decent.
However, he’s very cheap, and he gets a middle-of-the-order spot in the Cardinals lineup on a day they’re implied for 4.6 runs and have absurdly good hitting weather. They also have a strong matchup with Phillies rookie Andrew Painter ($6,000) and his 6.48 ERA. More importantly, he’s cheap, and there aren’t really any other catchers I’m going out of my way to roster.
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Pictured: Tarik Skubal
Photo Credit: Imagn
