The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Dustin May ($9,500) Los Angeles Dodgers (-285) vs. Miami Marlins
Dustin May falls just short of the top projections on Monday’s slate, but he’s slightly cheaper than the pitcher who edges him out. He also has impossible-to-ignore Vegas data, with the Marlins’ team total the lowest on the slate by half a run and the Dodgers the heaviest favorite.
The case for May as a top option is largely matchup-based. He’s not a bad arm by any stretch, with his actual and expected ERA marks all in the high threes. He’s a fairly unexciting 20% strikeout rate pitcher, but he’ll eat innings without allowing too much damage.
While Miami isn’t a team we go out of our way to pick on, on the smaller slate they’re one of the weaker options. As a team, their wRC+ ranks 22nd against righties, and they strike out at a top-five rate.
That’s enough to feel confident that May will have at worst a solid performance and potentially the top score on the slate. He’ll be very popular, but we aren’t overrun with stronger options.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Ronel Blanco ($8,300) Houston Astros (-118) vs. Detroit Tigers
The most intriguing game for pitching options is Tigers-Astros in Houston. The 7.5 over/under is the smallest total on the board by a full run, and we have two solid pitchers both taking on reasonably tough lineups.
Clearly, betting markets expect the pitchers to collectively win out based on the game total. Particularly Blanco, who’s $1,700 cheaper than his counterpart but a slight favorite. Blanco has struggled early this season with a 5.01 ERA, but his xERA is a much better 3.63. He also had a 2.80 ERA through 167 innings last season.
Like May, he’s not much of a strikeout pitcher with just a 20% rate. He’s due for a bit of positive regression based on his swinging strike rate but profiles as a mid-20s arm at best. Detroit strikes out at a top-five rate, though, so some of that regression could come tonight.
All in all, Blanco is underpriced for his underlying numbers after a somewhat unlucky start, making him a solid option for all contest types. He leads the slate in Pts/Sal projection.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Jack Flaherty ($10,000) Detroit Tigers (-102) at Houston Astros
The other side of the Tigers/Astros game is a higher risk/higher reward option. Much of the risk is due to the price tag more than anything else, as we have Flaherty leading both median and ceiling projection. However, narrowly besting Blanco or May isn’t quite enough at his five-figure price tag.
Flaherty has been excellent this season, with a 29.9% strikeout rate and a 2.63 ERA. His ERA is probably due for some minor negative regression, but his underlying numbers are still rock solid. We can also count on him to miss bats, since he finished last season with an even higher strikeout rate.
Houston has also struggled offensively to start the season, ranking 24th overall and 25th against right-handed pitching in wRC+. They’re probably a better offense than that overall, but we have enough sample size at this point to not be especially concerned.
Fortunately, Flaherty’s price tag also makes him project for slightly lower ownership than the other options, which makes him an excellent GPP play.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
The Braves are in Coors Field tonight, giving them a 6.1-run implied total that leads the slate by more than half of a run. They’re also priced appropriately for the occasion, averaging more than $5,000 per player on a slate without any obviously viable cheap pitching options.
Which leads us to the key decision point of the slate. Do we stack the Braves and take a swing at a cheap pitcher or two, or try to find cheap bats to pair with the top pitchers?
Given the lack of slate-breaking upside from two of the top three arms, my lean is towards the Braves and Flaherty for GPPs. That’s tough to pull off even when punting the second pitcher spot, but that should make it fairly contrarian.
Even that requires pivoting to a down-lineup Brave or two. However, there’s a certain bit of logic there. If this game turns into a blowout, it’s the stars at the top who are most likely to get pulled early.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Wyatt Langford OF ($5,000) Texas Rangers vs. Athletics (JP Sears)
We had this exact matchup last Wednesday. I pointed out Langford’s elite numbers against lefties in PlateIQ, which have only continued to improve:
Langford paid it off with a solo home run (and a walk) in that matchup, so I’m willing to run it back even at a higher price tag. He’s tough to afford on this slate but could be a difference maker.
Brent Rooker OF ($5,400) Athletics at Texas Rangers (Patrick Corbin)
Rooker also has an ISO better than .300 against lefties dating back to the start of last season, and I debated making him the official PlateIQ screenshot. He’s another elite option from this game, not just because of his own numbers but because of the opponent.
While Patrick Corbin ($7,000) has a 3.77 ERA this season, he’s been more lucky than good. Corbin’s underlying numbers are all in the mid-fours or higher, and his last four seasons all saw him finish with an ERA north of 5.00.
Obviously Rooker and Langford are both pricey today, but between the Braves stack and the expensive pitchers, they’ll be fairly contrarian. I’m trying to work them in where I can.
Jace Jung 3B ($2,300) Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros (Ronel Blanco)
The top three pitchers on the slate — Blanco, May, and Flaherty — are all projecting north of 30% ownership today. Obviously any individual lineup can have at most two of them. Given the condensed ownership on those three, it makes sense to force a hitter from whichever of the group you fade in order to magnify your leverage.
I’m using Jung as an example here because he’s cheap and Blanco somewhat struggles against lefties. However, the broader point is to build that leverage with whatever player your salary and lineup availability allow.
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Pictured: Brent Rooker
Photo Credit: Getty Images
