The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Garrett Crochet (L) $10,300 Boston Red Sox (-167) at Minnesota Twins
We’ve got a surprisingly full Monday of baseball, with a nine-game slate starting at 6:35 p.m. ET, plus three other games on the docket for the day. That means plenty of solid options at pitcher, including Boston’s southpaw ace, who is one of the game’s best fantasy assets.
Garrett Crochet is averaging just over 22 DraftKings points per game through three starts this season and should be hitting the point where he’s fully stretched out and capable of lasting longer into games. He pitched into the seventh inning for the first time this season in his last start, allowing two runs over 6.1 innings and notching seven strikeouts along the way.
The strikeout upside is always going to be the biggest selling point for Crochet, after he led the majors in that category last season. He’s having a down year by his standards with “just” a 29.7% strikeout rate so far in 2026, but that would have been good enough for fourth in the majors last year. Plus, he’s had somewhat tough matchups to start the season.
Tonight he draws a Twins team that is largely worse against left-handed hitting, in one of the few games on the slate with favorable pitching weather. There’s some concern that the weather is a bit too favorable for pitchers and leads to a PPD, but it looks like a late start might be enough to get this game in in its entirety. Either way, be sure to check back closer to game time to see what the latest reports say.
Crochet leads all pitchers in median and ceiling projection and is tied for the lead in Pts/Sal, making him an elite play for all contest types should the weather cooperate.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Nathan Eovaldi (R) $7,800 Texas Rangers (-133) at Athletics
Tied with Crochet for the Pts/Sal lead is Nathan Eovaldi, the Rangers righty who got off to a terrible start to the season before bouncing back in his third outing. Eovaldi is coming off six innings of two-run ball in which he struck out seven Mariners, and that game was in Texas, not pitcher-friendly Seattle. However, he got knocked around in his first two starts and has a 7.98 ERA.
He’s obviously nowhere near that bad, though he’s also not as good as last season’s 1.73 ERA indicates either. His underlying numbers point to him being a high-threes ERA pitcher, which is more than acceptable at his price point and with his solid strikeout numbers.
However, he’s a scary play tonight. While the Athletics are a below-average offense by the numbers, this game/series is at their temporary home in Sacramento, which has been the second-best hitter’s park in baseball since they began games there last season. The home team is implied for a middling 4.4 runs, so the market isn’t quite sure if Eovaldi can find success under trying conditions.
He’s likely worth the risk in GPPs, especially with his reasonable ownership projections if you need the salary. However, he’s a bit too risky for my tastes in cash games, and it’s not especially hard to find the salary to get up to safer options.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Paul Skenes (R) $9,500 Pittsburgh Pirates (-225) vs. Washington Nationals
You know it’s a good day for pitchers when Paul Skenes doesn’t lead our pitcher projections. The reigning Cy Young winner trails Crochet by a couple of points thanks to a tougher matchup and the fact that his numbers are down to start the year. His 5.25 ERA is a function of getting blown up on opening day and will work itself out, but the 23.5% strikeout rate and 11.4% swinging strike rate are both down from his last two seasons. I expect the 23-year-old to bounce back, though, so it’s worth buying low on him in some chunk of your portfolio tonight.
Cristopher Sanchez (L) $9,800 Philadelphia Phillies (-188) vs. Chicago Cubs
The Phillies southpaw has a somewhat difficult matchup with the Cubs on Monday. However, the market thinks he likely gets the better of it, with Chicago implied for just 3.5 runs and the Phillies a moderate favorite. With his 1.65 ERA and 33% strikeout rate on the season, it’s easy to understand the optimism. His K prediction trails only Crochet, and he’s an excellent GPP pivot, or you could pair him with Crochet and punt on offense for a high-upside contrarian GPP build.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the New York Yankees:
The Yankees stack is bracketed by relatively cheap options in the first and fifth lineup spot that make it very affordable to roster them, despite their slate-leading 5.3-run total. For comparison, they’re implied for 0.1 more runs than the Dodgers, but the Dodgers’ top five bats would cost an additional $4,800 in salary.
Of course, the strength of this Yankees stack is in the middle, with the power-hitting trio of Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, and Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton and Judge are also on the stronger side of their platoon splits against lefty Yusei Kikuchi ($6,000), while Bellinger actually has better numbers against lefties since the start of 2025 despite batting from the left side himself.
In fact, since the start of 2025, New York has been the best team overall against southpaws, making them stand out tonight, especially considering Kikuchi’s struggles this season. He has a 6.75% ERA despite getting very lucky on home runs, with his 6.75% HR/FB ratio less than half his career average. That’s likely a function both of luck and cold weather to start the season, but it’s expected to be in the mid-70s at game time tonight.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Miguel Rojas 2B/SS ($2,600) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets (David Peterson)
I mentioned above that the Dodgers have the second-best team total on the board, but getting exposure to them is much more expensive than the Yankees. However, if we could roster some of their bats on the cheap, it would be a good way to get pieces of both of Monday’s top lineups.
I turned to Plate IQ to see if any lesser-known Dodgers stood out against left-handed pitching, and there was an obvious answer:
That’s Rojas, whose splits against lefties rival any Dodgers’ hitters outside of Ohtani, at a bargain price. While it would be nice if he was higher up the lineup, it’s still worth rostering him tonight.
Brandon Nimmo OF ($4,700) Texas Rangers at Athletics (Luis Severino)
In the section on Rangers starter Nathan Eovaldi, I mentioned the extremely hitter-friendly park factors in Sacramento tonight. If we think Eovaldi does well, the obvious next step is to roster Rangers hitters, with Brandon Nimmo being one of the best options.
A’s starter Luis Severino ($6,300) has a 5.40 ERA this season and finished last season – his first as an A – at 4.54. His underlying numbers are better, which suggests it’s not totally his fault, and his ERA was over 6.00 at home last season (and just 3.02 on the road). However, this is his first home start of the season and his numbers are bad already, so we want to pick on him tonight.
The left-handed Nimmo has consistently hit better against righties than lefties, so it makes sense to roster him tonight – along with some other Rangers hitters if you can.
Caleb Durbin 3B ($2,300) Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins (Bailey Ober)
I wanted to highlight another cheap hitting option, since my favorite build tonight is two of the three elite pitchers (Crochet/Sanchez/Skenes) with the Yankees stack. That doesn’t leave a ton of salary for other players, but if we include hitters like Durbin, we can get there.
He’s projected to hit second in a Boston lineup implied for a solid 4.3 runs, making him obviously underpriced at just $2,300. He’s been terrible this season, hitting just .106 through 53 plate appearances, but that should turn around at some point, and I want to roster him at this price when it does.
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Pictured: Aaron Judge
Photo Credit: Imagn
