The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Robbie Ray ($8,600) San Francisco Giants (-277) vs. Colorado Rockies
There are a bunch of big-time arms to choose from on Friday. Ray’s name might not jump off the page compared to some of his peers, but he stands out as the best combination of value and upside. He compares quite favorable to some of the most expensive pitchers on the slate, despite checking in with an $8,600 price tag.
Most of Ray’s appeal stems from his matchup vs. the Rockies. Colorado isn’t just bad offensively; they’re downright abysmal. That’s particularly true when they’re playing outside of Coors Field. They’ve averaged just 2.25 runs per game on the road this season, which is the worst mark in the league by a wide margin. They’re also 25th in wRC+ when facing a southpaw on the road, while their 31.1% strikeout rate is the second-highest mark in that split.
As a result, Ray has some of the best Vegas data on the slate. He’s a massive -277 favorite, and Colorado is implied for a paltry 3.1 runs. Finding a pitcher with that kind of Vegas data at just $8,600 is hard to do, and pitchers with comparable marks and price tags have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.28 (per the Trends tool).
Ray isn’t the same pitcher that he was in his prime – his xERA currently sits at 4.42 – but he’s still capable of dominating in the right matchups. His swing-and-miss stuff remains above average, ranking in the 80th percentile for whiff rate while generating 33 punchouts in 31.1 innings. He’s also trending up in that department, notching at least seven strikeouts in three of his past four starts.
Finally, Ray doesn’t just get to face the Rockies outside of Coors Field; he gets to do so in San Francisco. Oracle Park has historically been a pitcher-friendly venue, and Ray has pitched to a 2.50 ERA at home so far this season. Ultimately, he checks all the boxes.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Gunnar Hogland ($4,000) Athletics (-140) vs. Miami Marlins
Hogland entered this season as the Athletics’ No. 14 prospect per MLB Pipeline. Their farm system isn’t considered particularly strong at the moment, so that’s not the most ringing endorsement for his potential as an MLB starter.
However, Hogland has outperformed his ranking so far this season at Triple-A. He’s pitched to a 2.43 ERA while striking out more than a batter per inning across his first six outings. He’s yet to allow more than two earned runs in a start, and he’s gone at least 5.0 innings in four of his past five trips to the bump.
Hogland will make his MLB debut on Friday vs. the Marlins, and it’s hard to ask for a better possible spot. Miami is 23rd in wRC+ vs. right-handers this season, and they boast the fifth-highest strikeout rate in that split.
However, the real appeal here is the price tag. He’s priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings, which is typically reserved for openers. Hogland is a legitimate starting pitcher. Even if the Athletics are careful with him in his debut, he still has the potential to go five innings.
Hogland ultimately leads all pitchers in projected Plus/Minus. He’s not expected to be particularly chalky – he’s currently projected for just 6.22% ownership – and his ceiling for tournaments is definitely capped. But as a cheap SP2 for cash games? Sign me up.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Tarik Skubal ($10,500) Detroit Tigers (-190) at Los Angeles Angels
One year after winning the AL Cy Young award, Skubal has cemented his status as one of the best pitchers in baseball. He’s off to another fantastic start this season, posting a 2.34 ERA through six outings, and he combines elite strikeout metrics with fantastic batted-ball data. The Angels are also merely 29th in wRC+ against southpaws this season, and they just lost Mike Trout to the IL. Skubal could absolutely shove in this spot.
Jose Soriano ($6,900) Los Angeles Angels (+160) vs. Detroit Tigers
Soriano is opposing Skubal on Friday, which definitely hurts him from a win expectancy standpoint. The Angels are pretty heavy underdogs, so Soriano’s chances of picking up the win bonus aren’t great. That said, he could still outproduce his salary in a solid matchup. The Tigers started the year strong against right-handers, but they’ve dipped to No. 23 in that split in wRC+ over the past 14 days. Soriano is elite at generating ground balls – he ranks in the 96th percentile in that department – so he should be able to keep the Tigers at bay.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($10,300) Los Angeles Dodgers (-178) at Atlanta Braves
Yamamoto was a slight disappointment in his first MLB season, but he has dominated so far this season. He’s pitched to a 1.06 ERA, and his 2.49 xERA puts him in the 88th percentile. Additionally, he’s been one of the top strikeout merchants in the league. He’s racked up 43 punchouts through 34 innings, and he’s had at least nine strikeouts in three of his past five starts. The Braves aren’t a great matchup on paper, but they can be vulnerable to the strikeout from time to time. They have the 12th-highest strikeout rate against righties this season, so Yamamoto’s ceiling could be a bit undervalued.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
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The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected points belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
Breaking news: the Dodgers are good. Last year’s World Series champs went on another shopping spree this offseason, and they currently own the best record in baseball. Their pitching hasn’t been quite as good as advertised – especially with all the injuries they’ve dealt with – but their offense has picked up the slack. They’re third in the league in runs per game, trailing only the Cubs and Yankees.
Their offense is headlined by their trio of former MVPs: Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman. All three have posted excellent metrics against right-handers since the start of last season (via PlateIQ):
Not only are they facing a right-hander on Friday, but they’re also facing an extremely vulnerable righty. Grant Holmes has been roughed up so far this season, pitching to a 4.50 ERA and a 5.08 xERA. He’s struggling to generate swings and misses, and he’s also handing out a ton of free passes. When opposing batters have put the ball in play, they’ve also done significant damage: Holmes ranks in the 15th percentile for barrel rate, and he’s allowed 1.61 homers per nine innings. If not for a fluky .191 BABIP, Holmes’ numbers could look even worse.
The Dodgers are currently implied for 5.2 runs, which is tied for the top mark on the slate. They’re going to set you back a ton, but their upside in this spot is undeniable.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Vinnie Pasquantino 1B ($3,100) Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles (Dean Kremer)
One of the other teams implied for 5.2 runs on Friday? That would be the Royals. Kansas City isn’t known for its offense, and outside of Bobby Witt Jr., their batters are really affordable. While stacking the top five for the Dodgers will cost $27,300, the top five in the Royals’ projected lineup check in at just $18,200.
Their matchup vs. Kremer is extremely appealing. He’s pitched to a 7.04 ERA this season, and his 5.70 xERA isn’t much better. He ranks in merely the ninth percentile for strikeout rate and 13th percentile for barrel rate, which is an extremely tough combination to survive.
Pasquantino isn’t off to a particularly strong start this season, but he will be on the positive side of his splits. He posted a 116 wRC+ with 15 homers against right-handers last season, so he’s an excellent value target in this matchup. He leads all batters in projected Plus/Minus using the blended projection set.
Willy Adames SS ($3,600) San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies (Antonio Senzatela)
Senzatela is another pitcher we can pick on. He’s been one of the worst starters in baseball this season, even when pitching outside of Coors Field. He owns a 5.20 FIP on the road, and he has been absolutely demolished by right-handed batters in particular. They’ve posted a massive .486 wOBA against him, and they’re averaging more than four homers per nine innings.
That’s a major plus for Adames, who is a righty who has historically feasted on right-handed pitchers. Since the start of last season, he owns a .363 wOBA and a .224 ISO in that split. Adames is also priced at a reasonable $3,600 on DraftKings, which represents a decrease of nearly -$1,000 since the start of the season.
Yordan Alvarez ($5,000) Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox (Jonathan Cannon)
Alvarez has not had the type of start to the season that he would’ve hoped. His numbers are down virtually across the board, and he’s managed just three homers.
The good news is that there’s no real cause for concern. He’s still making excellent contact, and he has as much raw power as anyone. He ranks in the 98th percentile for bat speed, so the power is going to come eventually.
It could happen Friday vs. Cannon. He ranks as well below average in most batted-ball metrics, and he’s surrendered 1.41 homers per nine innings so far this season. Alvarez should also fly a bit under the radar, with most people paying up for either the Dodgers’ bats or some of the top arms on the slate.
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Pictured: Mookie Betts
Photo Credit: Getty Images
