The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Tarik Skubal ($11,500) Detroit Tigers (-173) vs. Detroit Tigers
Skubal has solidified his status as the unquestioned top pitcher in baseball this season. He led the American League in wins, strikeouts, and ERA last season, and he’s arguably been even better in 2025. His ERA (2.26) and xERA (2.32) are both slightly better than they were last season, while he’s striking out a career-best 11.78 batters per nine innings.
Skubal’s combination of strikeouts and ability to limit baserunners is basically unparalleled. He ranks in the 96th percentile for strikeout rate, while his walk rate is in the 99th percentile. Add both together, and his 32.3% K-BB percentage is the top mark in baseball by a wide margin.
Skubal’s batted-ball profile is also excellent, ranking in the 93rd percentile for hard-hit rate and 97th percentile for average exit velocity. In other words, there is simply nothing that he doesn’t excel at from a pitching standpoint.
His task on Friday vs. the Cubs isn’t the easiest. They’ve been an excellent offensive squad this season, ranking first in the league in runs per game. They’re first in wRC+ against when facing a left-hander on the road, so Skubal will have his work cut out for him.
Still, there aren’t many left-handers like Skubal. He is predictably getting plenty of respect from Vegas in this spot, with his 3.1 opponent implied run total ranking first on the slate. He also ranks first with a 7.15 K Prediction, while his -173 moneyline odds make him the third-largest favorite.
The only real downside with Skubal is his salary. He doesn’t stand out as an elite value at $11,500, but he’s one of the safest options at the position. His upside is also unparalleled, scoring at least 28.55 DraftKings points in back-to-back starts.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Ben Brown ($7,000) Chicago Cubs (+145) vs. Detroit Tigers
It’s rare that the top two pitching options come from the same game, but you can make that argument on Friday. While Skubal is the clear-cut top ace to choose from, Brown stands out as the best pure value. He leads the slate in projected Plus/Minus in both THE BAT and the Fantasy Labs projection sets.
Brown is obviously the underdog in this matchup, but the Tigers’ offense can be exploited. Specifically, they have the third-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers.
That’s an area where Brown can take advantage. He’s coming off nine strikeouts in his last start, and his 28.0% strikeout rate puts him in the 81st percentile overall.
Brown’s 5.78 ERA is an eyesore, but it’s the byproduct of a few blowup outings. His 4.04 xERA is much more palatable, and he’s allowed three earned runs or fewer in eight of his 12 appearances.
As long as Brown can limit the damage in this spot, his strikeout upside should be more than enough to provide value at just $7,000. His 5.99 K Prediction ranks fifth on the slate, and pitchers with comparable salaries and K Predictions have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.08 (per the Trends tool). He’s the only starter with a K Prediction above 4.7 priced below $8,000, so he’s very much an outlier in that regard.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Will Warren ($8,000) New York Yankees (-198) vs. Boston Red Sox
Warren was absolutely rocked in his last outing. He failed to make it out of the second inning, surrendering seven earned runs on six hits and four walks vs. the Dodgers. Of course, the Dodgers are capable of making any pitcher look bad. Before that outing, Warren had put together some excellent performances, posting a 2.70 ERA and 1.50 FIP over his previous five starts. He also racked up 8.2 strikeouts per outing in that stretch. He stands out from a strikeout standpoint (6.35 K Prediction) and moneyline odds (-198), making him a fantastic target at just $8,000.
Kodai Senga ($9,000) New York Mets (-300) at Colorado Rockies
Senga will have to navigate the thin Rocky Mountain air on Friday, which always carries a bit of risk. However, the Rockies’ offense has been so bad that it might not matter. Even when looking only at home games, the Rockies are merely 28th in wRC+ with the second-highest strikeout rate. Senga is the largest favorite of the day at -300, and he trails only Skubal and Warren in terms of K Prediction.
Spencer Schwellenbach ($10,000) Atlanta Braves (-135) at San Francisco Giants
Schwellenbach could be a bit overlooked on this slate. He doesn’t stand out in any one particular area, but he has solid marks across the board. He’s a good pitcher, and he draws a solid matchup vs. the Giants in San Francisco. They’re merely 22nd in wRC+ vs. right-handers, and Oracle Park has historically been a pitcher-friendly venue.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
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The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected points belongs to the New York Mets:
The Mets’ offense has felt a bit underwhelming this season. They’re merely 10th in the league in runs per game, and they’ve been winning more with their pitching than their lineup. That’s not exactly what was expected after they shelled out more than $750M for Juan Soto this offseason.
That said, the underlying data suggests the Mets’ offense has been unlucky. They’re third in the league in xwOBA, trailing only the Yankees and Dodgers, but they’re sixth in actual wOBA. They’ve underperformed their expected mark by the third-largest margin, so there’s plenty of reason to believe in improvement moving forward.
Perhaps a trip to Colorado will help. Their offense has already shown signs of life in recent games, averaging 5.3 runs and 2.3 homers over their past seven outings, and they lead the slate with a 6.9 implied team total on Friday. No other team is above 5.6, so the gap between the Mets and the rest of the field is pretty large.
Determining the best way to attack the Mets is an interesting puzzle. Using their top five hitters is certainly viable, and it’s a bit cheaper than you might expect with Francisco Lindor not expected to suit up.
However, the THE BAT X likes the idea of replacing Jeff McNeil with Ronny Mauricio. Mauricio has immense upside, slugging three homers with four steals in just nine Triple-A games this season. He routinely posts eye-popping exit velocities when he makes contact, and opposing pitcher German Marquez doesn’t miss a ton of bats.
Using Mauricio also saves a bit of salary thanks to his $3,000 price tag. Using a 1-2-3-4-7 stack removes a bit of correlation, but it could also help from an ownership standpoint.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Ramon Urias, 3B ($3,000) Baltimore Orioles at Athletics (JP Sears)
The Orioles are another team that stands out on Friday. They’re second on the slate implied team total, and they’ll also get an upgrade from a park standpoint. Sutter Health Field has seen the fifth-most home runs this season, and it ranks as the second-most hitter-friendly park in baseball per Statcast Park Factors.
That makes Urias an elite source of savings at just $3,000. He’ll be on the positive side of his splits against Sears, and Urias has crushed lefties since the start of last season (via Plate IQ):
Urias is also expected to bat fourth in the Orioles’ lineup, so he checks all the boxes on this slate. He ranks fourth in the blended projection set in projected Plus/Minus. If you’re looking to go even cheaper, Coby Mayo ($2,100) also has some appeal for Baltimore.
Bobby Witt Jr., SS ($5,500) Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox (Davis Martin)
The Royals don’t have the same obvious appeal as teams like the Mets and Orioles, but they stand out nonetheless. They draw an elite matchup, with Martin’s 5.76 xERA putting him in the seventh percentile. He’s managed to outpitch his peripherals all season, but there could be some big regression headed his way.
Witt could be a bit undervalued on this slate. He hasn’t hit for the same power as he’s done in the past two seasons, but that’s starting to change. He’s launched two homers in his past six games, and he remains an absolute demon on the bases. Witt has already stolen 21 bases, so he has plenty of upside in this contest. He ultimately leads all players in median and ceiling projection using the blended set.
Tyler Stephenson, C ($3,600) Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Endy Rodriguez)
Filling out the catcher spot is always difficult, but Stephenson is an appealing combination of value and upside on Friday. He’ll be on the positive side of his splits vs. Rodriguez, with Stephenson owning a career 118 wRC+ against southpaws. He only has 29 plate appearances vs. left-handers this season, but he’s posted a .348 average with two homers in that split.
Stephenson will also be at home on Friday, giving him an added boost. The Great American Ball Park has historically been one of the most homer-prone stadiums in baseball.
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Pictured: Tarik Skubal
Photo Credit: Getty Images
